Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Brookfield and EIG/MidOcean are Offering <strong><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/origin-energy-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:797:1" rel="noopener">Origin Energy (ORG AU)</a></strong> shareholders $9.00/share, a 54.9% premium to last close, by way of a Scheme. The Offer is non-binding and indicative.</li>
<li>Negotiations kicked off at $7.95 for the LNG developer in early August. Exclusive due diligence has been granted. </li>
<li>A firm offer will be contingent on ACCC and FIRB approval. Such a takeover <em>may</em> actually play into the Albanese government's future energy plans.</li>
</ul>


Brookfield and EIG/MidOcean are Offering Origin Energy (ORG AU) shareholders $9.00/share, a 54.9% premium to last close, by way of a Scheme. The Offer is non-binding and indicative.
Negotiations kicked off at $7.95 for the LNG developer in early August. Exclusive due diligence has been granted. 
A firm offer will be contingent on ACCC and FIRB approval. Such a takeover may actually play into the Albanese government's future energy plans.


Origin Energy: Brookfield's Energy Transition Bet

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/crown-resorts-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:808:1" rel="noopener">Crown Resorts (CWN AU)</a>'s Second Court hearing is scheduled for 15 June and the stock is likely to stop trading at the close on that day. </li>
<li>Estimated passive tracker selling is 62m shares (A$809m; 31.2 days of ADV) of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/crown-resorts-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:808:1" rel="noopener">Crown Resorts (CWN AU)</a> and that could open up some arb opportunities.</li>
<li>We expect <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/whitehaven-coal-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14253:1" rel="noopener">Whitehaven Coal (WHC AU)</a> will be added to the S&amp;P/ASX 100 Index, while <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/coronado-global-resources-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27473:1" rel="noopener">Coronado Global Resources Inc (CRN AU)</a> could be added to the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/s-p-asx-200" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22901:1" rel="noopener">S&amp;P/ASX 200 (AS51 INDEX)</a>. </li>
</ul>



Crown Resorts (CWN AU)'s Second Court hearing is scheduled for 15 June and the stock is likely to stop trading at the close on that day. 
Estimated passive tracker selling is 62m shares (A$809m; 31.2 days of ADV) of Crown Resorts (CWN AU) and that could open up some arb opportunities.
We expect Whitehaven Coal (WHC AU) will be added to the S&amp;P/ASX 100 Index, while Coronado Global Resources Inc (CRN AU) could be added to the S&amp;P/ASX 200 (AS51 INDEX). 


Crown Resorts (CWN AU): Passive Sell Flow and Potential ASX100/200 Replacements

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Sumeet Singh

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

<ul>
<li>BHP shareholders will receive US$18bn worth of Woodside petroleum shares on 1st Jun 2022, post the completion of the merger. Block, worth US$1.5bn, could be sold in early June.</li>
<li>As a part of the distribution, some shares belonging to ineligible and other small shareholders will have to be sold by the sales agent, JPM. </li>
<li>In this note, we will look at the possible deal dynamics and the overall background of the deal.</li>
</ul>


BHP shareholders will receive US$18bn worth of Woodside petroleum shares on 1st Jun 2022, post the completion of the merger. Block, worth US$1.5bn, could be sold in early June.
As a part of the distribution, some shares belonging to ineligible and other small shareholders will have to be sold by the sales agent, JPM. 
In this note, we will look at the possible deal dynamics and the overall background of the deal.


BHP Woodside Distribution - Could Be a Large Block (~US$1bn) In Early June

Travis Lundy

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/woodside-petroleum-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:177:1" rel="noopener">Woodside Petroleum (WPL AU)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bhp-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:147:1" rel="noopener">BHP Group Ltd (BHP AU)</a> proposed a merger between Woodside and BHP Petroleum in August 2021, and signed the deal in November 2021.</li>
<li>It required regulatory approvals (of which it already has some) and Woodside shareholder approval, and the Woodside shares to be received by BHP would be distributed to BHP Shareholders.</li>
<li>Today, Woodside presented the <a href="https://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20220408/pdf/457vkgr3tsd00s.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Explanatory Memorandum</a>, the <a href="https://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20220408/pdf/457vkk523x0q8z.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Independent Expert Report</a> ("fair and reasonable"), and <a href="https://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20220408/pdf/457vkbn81yv3cr.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">information about the 19 May AGM vote</a>. This deal could be done 1 June.</li>
</ul>



Woodside Petroleum (WPL AU) and BHP Group Ltd (BHP AU) proposed a merger between Woodside and BHP Petroleum in August 2021, and signed the deal in November 2021.
It required regulatory approvals (of which it already has some) and Woodside shareholder approval, and the Woodside shares to be received by BHP would be distributed to BHP Shareholders.
Today, Woodside presented the Explanatory Memorandum, the Independent Expert Report ("fair and reasonable"), and information about the 19 May AGM vote. This deal could be done 1 June.


Woodside / BHP Petroleum Merger On Tap; Index Impact Minimal but Flowback May Not Be

<ul>
<li>There could be 2 changes to the ASX100 and ASX200 prior to the March rebalance due to the acquisitions of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ausnet-services" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10293:1" rel="noopener">Ausnet Services (AST AU)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sydney-airport" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:19063:1" rel="noopener">Sydney Airport (SYD AU)</a>. </li>
<li>There will also be the large <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bhp-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:147:1" rel="noopener">BHP Group (BHP AU)</a> upweight and funding trade following unification, and possibly the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/afterpay-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26940:1" rel="noopener">Afterpay Touch (APT AU)</a> acquisition by <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/square-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:23755:1" rel="noopener">Square Inc (SQ US)</a>. </li>
<li>Then there will be more changes to the ASX200 and ASX300 at the March rebalance. There could be a lot of new listings included in the ASX300.</li>
</ul>


There could be 2 changes to the ASX100 and ASX200 prior to the March rebalance due to the acquisitions of Ausnet Services (AST AU) and Sydney Airport (SYD AU). 
There will also be the large BHP Group (BHP AU) upweight and funding trade following unification, and possibly the Afterpay Touch (APT AU) acquisition by Square Inc (SQ US). 
Then there will be more changes to the ASX200 and ASX300 at the March rebalance. There could be a lot of new listings included in the ASX300.


ASX100/​200/300 Index Rebalance Preview (March 2022): A Lot Happening From Now to March

Australia

Oil Search Limited explores for and produces gas and oil through operations in Papua New Guinea.  The Company's activities are located in the Papuan Highlands which include the Kutubu, Hides, and Gobe oil and gas projects.

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Oil Search Ltd (OSH AU)

Origin Energy: Brookfield's Energy Transition Bet

The Offer remains non-binding. I think a firm Offer will get up - but the final pricing may change subject to discussions with the government on...

David Blennerhassett

Crown Resorts (CWN AU): Passive Sell Flow and Potential ASX100/200 Replacements

Crown Resorts has received all reg approvals. The court hearing takes place 15 Jun & the stock could stop trading at the close. There will be large...

Brian Freitas

BHP Woodside Distribution - Could Be a Large Block (~US$1bn) In Early June

BHP shareholders will receive US$18bn worth of Woodside petroleum shares on 1st Jun 2022, post the completion of the merger. Block, worth US$1.5bn,...

Sumeet Singh

Woodside / BHP Petroleum Merger On Tap; Index Impact Minimal but Flowback May Not Be

Woodside has announced its Shareholder Meeting Date for the BHP Petroleum Merger Approval (it was already known). The IE has declared it "fair and...

Travis Lundy

ASX100/200/300 Index Rebalance Preview (March 2022): A Lot Happening From Now to March

There will be many changes to the ASX100/200/300 indices from now to March due to M&A activity & price moves. Plus a large funding trade following...

Brian Freitas

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

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Origin Energy: Brookfield's Energy Transition Bet

The Offer remains non-binding. I think a firm Offer will get up - but the final pricing may change subject to discussions with the government on...

David Blennerhassett

Crown Resorts (CWN AU): Passive Sell Flow and Potential ASX100/200 Replacements

Crown Resorts has received all reg approvals. The court hearing takes place 15 Jun & the stock could stop trading at the close. There will be large...

Brian Freitas

BHP Woodside Distribution - Could Be a Large Block (~US$1bn) In Early June

BHP shareholders will receive US$18bn worth of Woodside petroleum shares on 1st Jun 2022, post the completion of the merger. Block, worth US$1.5bn,...

Sumeet Singh

Woodside / BHP Petroleum Merger On Tap; Index Impact Minimal but Flowback May Not Be

Woodside has announced its Shareholder Meeting Date for the BHP Petroleum Merger Approval (it was already known). The IE has declared it "fair and...

Travis Lundy

ASX100/​200/300 Index Rebalance Preview (March 2022): A Lot Happening From Now to March

There will be many changes to the ASX100/200/300 indices from now to March due to M&A activity & price moves. Plus a large funding trade following...

Brian Freitas

ASX100/200/300 Index Rebalance Preview (March 2022): A Lot Happening From Now to March