IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>On Friday, after market close, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/makino-milling-machine-co" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5200:1" rel="noopener">Makino Milling Machine Co (6135 JP)</a> finally issued a progress update on the MBK preconditional tender offer. The update, while mixed, should calm nerves. </li>
<li>The positive read-across is a pathway to regulatory approvals, the Homeplus saga has not derailed the offer, and the likely breach of the long-stop date is not a termination event.</li>
<li>The negative read-across is the lack of a revised tender start timeline, an unexplained delay in securing most regulatory approvals and ongoing uncertainty on the long-stop date.</li>
</ul>


On Friday, after market close, Makino Milling Machine Co (6135 JP) finally issued a progress update on the MBK preconditional tender offer. The update, while mixed, should calm nerves. 
The positive read-across is a pathway to regulatory approvals, the Homeplus saga has not derailed the offer, and the likely breach of the long-stop date is not a termination event.
The negative read-across is the lack of a revised tender start timeline, an unexplained delay in securing most regulatory approvals and ongoing uncertainty on the long-stop date.


Makino Milling Machine (6135 JP): Progress Update While Mixed, Should Calm Nerves

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech, Aequitas Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>We analyzed the changes in margin trading positions of JPX stocks as of Dec 5th. The aggregated net margin trading position is USD19,761m.</li>
<li>We tabulate league tables for top/bottom net long/short of margin trading by value, net margin buy as multiple of ADT.</li>
<li>We highlight net margin buy/sell changes in Carta, Toyoda Gosei, Lasertec, Advantest, SoftBank, Mitsui E&amp;S, Mitsubishi UFJ Financial, Disco, Daihen, Nintendo, Carta, Toyoda Gosei, Lasertec, Advantest, Softbank.</li>
</ul>


We analyzed the changes in margin trading positions of JPX stocks as of Dec 5th. The aggregated net margin trading position is USD19,761m.
We tabulate league tables for top/bottom net long/short of margin trading by value, net margin buy as multiple of ADT.
We highlight net margin buy/sell changes in Carta, Toyoda Gosei, Lasertec, Advantest, SoftBank, Mitsui E&amp;S, Mitsubishi UFJ Financial, Disco, Daihen, Nintendo, Carta, Toyoda Gosei, Lasertec, Advantest, Softbank.


JPX Margin Trading Weekly (Dec 5th): Carta, Toyoda Gosei, Lasertec, Advantest, SoftBank, Mitsui E&S

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/makino-milling-machine-co" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5200:1" rel="noopener">Makino Milling Machine Co (6135 JP)</a>’s pre-conditional tender offer from MBK Partners is at JPY11,751 per share. The gross spread has increased to 9.9% due to several concerns.</li>
<li>The wide gross spread reflects the risk in satisfying the precondition, the fallout from the Homeplus saga and breaching the long stop date (16 January 2026).</li>
<li>While these concerns have merit, there are mitigating factors. The risk/reward is favourable as the upside (9.9% spread) exceeds the downside (6.3% to my estimated deal break price). </li>
</ul>



Makino Milling Machine Co (6135 JP)’s pre-conditional tender offer from MBK Partners is at JPY11,751 per share. The gross spread has increased to 9.9% due to several concerns.
The wide gross spread reflects the risk in satisfying the precondition, the fallout from the Homeplus saga and breaching the long stop date (16 January 2026).
While these concerns have merit, there are mitigating factors. The risk/reward is favourable as the upside (9.9% spread) exceeds the downside (6.3% to my estimated deal break price). 


Makino Milling Machine (6135 JP): Tender Offer Risk/Reward

Japan Specialist

Mark Chadwick

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Stocks advanced on Wednesday as a sharp 32,000 drop in ADP private payrolls reinforced expectations that the Federal Reserve will cut rates next week</li>
<li>JFE Holdings (5411 JP) will invest ¥270bn for a 50% stake in Bhushan Power &amp; Steel, targeting expansion to 10mtpa by 2030 through tech transfer and ore access.</li>
<li>Fanuc (6954 JP) is shifting toward open, AI-enabled automation through ROS 2 integration and expanded Nvidia partnerships, enhancing interoperability and positioning the company to capture long-term smart-factory growth.</li>
</ul>


Stocks advanced on Wednesday as a sharp 32,000 drop in ADP private payrolls reinforced expectations that the Federal Reserve will cut rates next week
JFE Holdings (5411 JP) will invest ¥270bn for a 50% stake in Bhushan Power &amp; Steel, targeting expansion to 10mtpa by 2030 through tech transfer and ore access.
Fanuc (6954 JP) is shifting toward open, AI-enabled automation through ROS 2 integration and expanded Nvidia partnerships, enhancing interoperability and positioning the company to capture long-term smart-factory growth.


Ohayo Japan | Payroll Drop Drives Fed-Cut Bets as Financials Rally and AI Stocks Lag

Japanese Equity Specialist, Ortus Advisors

Andrew Jackson

Japanese Equity Specialist

Ortus Advisors

<ul>
<li>Strong numbers for Credo after-hours sets a better tone for connectivity related plays.</li>
<li>FA plays may be back in focus on news Yaskawa and Softbank as well as Fanuc and NVDA announce AI focused tie-ups.</li>
<li>Expect a weakish start in Japan but tech weakness yesterday may soften blow.</li>
</ul>


Strong numbers for Credo after-hours sets a better tone for connectivity related plays.
FA plays may be back in focus on news Yaskawa and Softbank as well as Fanuc and NVDA announce AI focused tie-ups.
Expect a weakish start in Japan but tech weakness yesterday may soften blow.


Japan Morning Connection: Crypto Selloff Spooks Risk Assets Although Most Recover in the PM

Japan

FANUC CORPORATION manufactures factory automation (FA) systems and equipments, and robots. The Company's products include computerized numerically-controlled (CNC) equipment, servo motors, laser systems, industrial robots, wire-cut electric discharge machines, and CNC drill.  Fanuc participates in a joint venture with General Electric in the FA field.

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Fanuc Corp (6954 JP)

Makino Milling Machine (6135 JP): Progress Update While Mixed, Should Calm Nerves

While the update is arguably mixed as it lends support to both the bulls and bears, it is positively skewed, which should calm nerves and narrow...

Arun George

JPX Margin Trading Weekly (Dec 5th): Carta, Toyoda Gosei, Lasertec, Advantest, SoftBank, Mitsui E&S

We analyzed JPX margin trading positions report for the past week and highlighted Carta (3688 JP), Toyoda Gosei (7282 JP), Lasertec (6920 JP),...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Makino Milling Machine (6135 JP): Tender Offer Risk/Reward

The wide gross spread reflects three concerns. While these concerns have merit, there are mitigating factors. The risk/reward is favourable.

Arun George

Ohayo Japan | Payroll Drop Drives Fed-Cut Bets as Financials Rally and AI Stocks Lag

Stocks rise on expectations of Fed rate cut after sharp drop in ADP private payrolls; JFE Holdings invests in Bhushan Power & Steel; Fanuc...

Mark Chadwick

Japan Morning Connection: Crypto Selloff Spooks Risk Assets Although Most Recover in the PM

Some rotation into defensive sectors in response to crypto weakness. AI connectivity name Credo is surging post-mkt, setting a better mood for JP...

Andrew Jackson

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Makino Milling Machine (6135 JP): Progress Update While Mixed, Should Calm Nerves

While the update is arguably mixed as it lends support to both the bulls and bears, it is positively skewed, which should calm nerves and narrow...

Arun George

JPX Margin Trading Weekly (Dec 5th): Carta, Toyoda Gosei, Lasertec, Advantest, SoftBank, Mitsui E&S

We analyzed JPX margin trading positions report for the past week and highlighted Carta (3688 JP), Toyoda Gosei (7282 JP), Lasertec (6920 JP),...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Makino Milling Machine (6135 JP): Tender Offer Risk/Reward

The wide gross spread reflects three concerns. While these concerns have merit, there are mitigating factors. The risk/reward is favourable.

Arun George

Ohayo Japan | Payroll Drop Drives Fed-Cut Bets as Financials Rally and AI Stocks Lag

​Stocks rise on expectations of Fed rate cut after sharp drop in ADP private payrolls; JFE Holdings invests in Bhushan Power & Steel; Fanuc...

Mark Chadwick

Japan Morning Connection: Crypto Selloff Spooks Risk Assets Although Most Recover in the PM

Some rotation into defensive sectors in response to crypto weakness. AI connectivity name Credo is surging post-mkt, setting a better mood for JP...

Andrew Jackson

Stocks rise on expectations of Fed rate cut after sharp drop in ADP private payrolls; JFE Holdings invests in Bhushan Power & Steel; Fanuc...