Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Minimal changes in the rankings since last time. Socionext (6526), Disco (6146), and a Consumer Goods stock (Zozo (3092) top-ranked, Ryohin Keikaku (7453) a better choice) are ADDs.</li>
<li>The DELETEs are still Takara Holdings (2531), Pacific Metals (5541), Sumitomo Osaka Cement (5232) with a dark horse candidate in Hitachi Zosen (7004) to replace Takara.</li>
<li>There is the upweight to Nitori (9843) AND funkiness with Fast Retailing (9983) to consider. We are right on the threshold. The question is whether it gets "help" in January.</li>
</ul>


Minimal changes in the rankings since last time. Socionext (6526), Disco (6146), and a Consumer Goods stock (Zozo (3092) top-ranked, Ryohin Keikaku (7453) a better choice) are ADDs.
The DELETEs are still Takara Holdings (2531), Pacific Metals (5541), Sumitomo Osaka Cement (5232) with a dark horse candidate in Hitachi Zosen (7004) to replace Takara.
There is the upweight to Nitori (9843) AND funkiness with Fast Retailing (9983) to consider. We are right on the threshold. The question is whether it gets "help" in January.


March 2024 Nikkei 225 Rebal - Socionext, Disco, and a Consumer Goods Stock to ADD and ¥1trn To Trade

Expert on Japan Retail and Consumer Markets, JapanConsuming

Michael Causton

Expert on Japan Retail and Consumer Markets

Real Insight on Japanese Consumer Markets

JapanConsuming

JapanConsuming is a specialist research firm producing intelligence on Japanese retail and consumer markets. Founded in 2000, JapanConsuming has become the leading provider of insights on Japanese retailers and consumer trends to retailers, brands, government agencies and investors. As well as a highly regarded monthly report on the market, JapanConsuming produces in-depth reports on retail sectors, seminars on key trends and telephone consulting to investors on trends and retailers.

JapanConsuming was founded by Michael Causton and Roy Larke. 

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>We once called Uniqlo the Toyota of clothing. And this remains apposite. Its consistent, reliable quality, focus on supply chain efficiency, and increasingly global renown make it a solid bet.</li>
<li>The majority of the growth last year came from overseas markets, including even the US and Europe and the appointment of Daisuke Tsukagoshi as president will boost overseas performance further.</li>
<li>Fast Retailing is talking up the potential of GU, which should make up for lower domestic growth from Uniqlo but also now thinks it can make it a global brand.</li>
</ul>


We once called Uniqlo the Toyota of clothing. And this remains apposite. Its consistent, reliable quality, focus on supply chain efficiency, and increasingly global renown make it a solid bet.
The majority of the growth last year came from overseas markets, including even the US and Europe and the appointment of Daisuke Tsukagoshi as president will boost overseas performance further.
Fast Retailing is talking up the potential of GU, which should make up for lower domestic growth from Uniqlo but also now thinks it can make it a global brand.


Fast Retailing: On to the Next (Bigger) Stage

Japan Specialist

Mark Chadwick

<ul>
<li>
Fast Retail Full-Year Expectations: Anticipate strong FY results, but potential FY8/24 guidance headwinds include weather impacts and yen weakness.</li>
<li>
Management Guidance Risks: The key risk would seem to be China outlook; Japan/Europe's heatwave impact on fall season; potential for gross margin pressures.</li>
<li>
Valuation: Despite growth prospects, concerns over cyclicality and valuation relative to peers persist.</li>
</ul>



Fast Retail Full-Year Expectations: Anticipate strong FY results, but potential FY8/24 guidance headwinds include weather impacts and yen weakness.

Management Guidance Risks: The key risk would seem to be China outlook; Japan/Europe's heatwave impact on fall season; potential for gross margin pressures.

Valuation: Despite growth prospects, concerns over cyclicality and valuation relative to peers persist.


FAST RETAIL (9983) | 3 Reasons Why Guidance Could Miss

<ul>
<li>Another blow out quarter for Fast Retailing - beat and raise</li>
<li>Fears (well, mine) of a miss in China were unfounded</li>
<li>Still, Q3 results do nothing to change the view that this is one expensive stock</li>
</ul>


Another blow out quarter for Fast Retailing - beat and raise
Fears (well, mine) of a miss in China were unfounded
Still, Q3 results do nothing to change the view that this is one expensive stock


Fast Retailing (9983) | Exceptional Quarter

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Sumeet Singh

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

<ul>
<li>Following up on our earlier cross-shareholding work, in this note we look to summarize our work so far by looking at where most of the selling will likely come.</li>
<li>Of the seven companies that we have looked at so far, collectively they have around US$102bn worth of shares to sell in 118 companies. </li>
<li>Of these, they have a combined stake of over US$1bn in 23 companies.</li>
</ul>


Following up on our earlier cross-shareholding work, in this note we look to summarize our work so far by looking at where most of the selling will likely come.
Of the seven companies that we have looked at so far, collectively they have around US$102bn worth of shares to sell in 118 companies. 
Of these, they have a combined stake of over US$1bn in 23 companies.


Japan Cross-Shareholding - Summary Matrix - Over US$100bn of Selling in 118 Companies

Japan

FAST RETAILING CO., LTD. operates a chain of clothing stores, UNIQLO, throughout Japan and in other markets overseas including UK, China, Hong Kong, South Korea, US, France, Singapore and Russia.  The Company designs, manufactures, and retails its own line of casual clothing.

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Fast Retailing (9983 JP)

March 2024 Nikkei 225 Rebal - Socionext, Disco, and a Consumer Goods Stock to ADD and ¥1trn To Trade

The March 2024 Nikkei 225 Rebalance is aiming at JPY 1 trillion to trade. The big one to the buy side is Disco (6146) but there are several large...

Travis Lundy

Fast Retailing: On to the Next (Bigger) Stage

Uniqlo's reliable quality, efficient supply chain, and global recognition make it a solid choice. Fast Retailing now sees GU compensating for...

Michael Causton

FAST RETAIL (9983) | 3 Reasons Why Guidance Could Miss

Anticipate strong FY results for Fast Retail, but potential FY8/24 guidance headwinds include weather impacts and yen weakness. Concerns over...

Mark Chadwick

Fast Retailing (9983) | Exceptional Quarter

Q4 results due on 12 October - should be no surprise. HOWEVER, FY8/24 guidance risk? Q1 (Sep-Nov) is the most important quarter AND Sept sales...

Mark Chadwick

Japan Cross-Shareholding - Summary Matrix - Over US$100bn of Selling in 118 Companies

Toyotal has just announced that it will buy back around 290m (around 2% of the stock) of its own shares from MS&AD, Tokio Marine, MUFG and SMFG. In...

Sumeet Singh

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

March 2024 Nikkei 225 Rebal - Socionext, Disco, and a Consumer Goods Stock to ADD and ¥1trn To Trade

The March 2024 Nikkei 225 Rebalance is aiming at JPY 1 trillion to trade. The big one to the buy side is Disco (6146) but there are several large...

Travis Lundy

Fast Retailing: On to the Next (Bigger) Stage

​Uniqlo's reliable quality, efficient supply chain, and global recognition make it a solid choice. Fast Retailing now sees GU compensating for...

Michael Causton

FAST RETAIL (9983) | 3 Reasons Why Guidance Could Miss

​Anticipate strong FY results for Fast Retail, but potential FY8/24 guidance headwinds include weather impacts and yen weakness. Concerns over...

Mark Chadwick

Fast Retailing (9983) | Exceptional Quarter

Q4 results due on 12 October - should be no surprise. HOWEVER, FY8/24 guidance risk? Q1 (Sep-Nov) is the most important quarter AND Sept sales...

Mark Chadwick

Japan Cross-Shareholding - Summary Matrix - Over US$100bn of Selling in 118 Companies

Toyotal has just announced that it will buy back around 290m (around 2% of the stock) of its own shares from MS&AD, Tokio Marine, MUFG and SMFG. In...

Sumeet Singh

Uniqlo's reliable quality, efficient supply chain, and global recognition make it a solid choice. Fast Retailing now sees GU compensating for...

Anticipate strong FY results for Fast Retail, but potential FY8/24 guidance headwinds include weather impacts and yen weakness. Concerns over...