Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>The Nikkei 225 data for the March 2024 rebalance is a wrap. The names are the same as before but there is likely less <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/disco-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15817:1" rel="noopener">DISCO Corp (6146 JP)</a> to buy.</li>
<li>It's still big, but smaller than before because of the difference between performance and the change in PAF required to be below 1%. A 4:1 share split would be optimal.</li>
<li>I recommend a few positioning changes from before, and the Fast Retailing trade loses one short-term option but the longer-term one stays in place.</li>
</ul>


The Nikkei 225 data for the March 2024 rebalance is a wrap. The names are the same as before but there is likely less DISCO Corp (6146 JP) to buy.
It's still big, but smaller than before because of the difference between performance and the change in PAF required to be below 1%. A 4:1 share split would be optimal.
I recommend a few positioning changes from before, and the Fast Retailing trade loses one short-term option but the longer-term one stays in place.


FINAL PREDICTIONS: March 2024 Nikkei 225 Rebal (Socionext, Disco, and 1 Consumer Goods Stock to ADD)

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Sumeet Singh

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Equity Capital Markets

Anta Sports Products / Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>Aequitas Research puts out a weekly update on the deals that were covered by the team recently along with updates for upcoming IPOs.</li>
<li>On the IPO front, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/amer-sports-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:21751:1" rel="noopener">Amer Sports (AS US)</a> was priced below its range, while <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/thai-credit-bank-pcl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:40192:1" rel="noopener">Thai Credit Bank PCL</a>, managed to get enough support to pull thru. </li>
<li>Given the earnings season, there weren't many placement apart from <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/indus-towers-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8922:1" rel="noopener">Indus Towers (INDUSTOW IN)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/metals-acquisition-corp-206b4b4c-e422-4777-bb84-419017ffff10" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:39082:1" rel="noopener">Metals Acquisition (MTAL US)</a>'s CDR offering. </li>
</ul>


Aequitas Research puts out a weekly update on the deals that were covered by the team recently along with updates for upcoming IPOs.
On the IPO front, Amer Sports (AS US) was priced below its range, while Thai Credit Bank PCL, managed to get enough support to pull thru. 
Given the earnings season, there weren't many placement apart from Indus Towers (INDUSTOW IN) and Metals Acquisition (MTAL US)'s CDR offering. 


ECM Weekly (4th Feb 2024) - Ola Electric, Mixue, Citicore, Amer, Thai Credit, Indus Tower, MTAL

David Blennerhassett

<ul>
<li>As totally expected, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/dai-ichi-life-insurance" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1109:1" rel="noopener">Dai Ichi Life Insurance (8750 JP)</a> extended its expected start date for the Tender Offer on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/benefit-one-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14502:1" rel="noopener">Benefit One Inc (2412 JP)</a>.</li>
<li>The possibility of a fourth Offer attempt by the Queks is raised as Elliott surprisingly exits its position in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/guoco-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5290:1" rel="noopener">Guoco Group Ltd (53 HK)</a><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/guoco-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5290:1" rel="noopener"></a>.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/outsourcing-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:7431:1" rel="noopener">Outsourcing Inc (2427 JP)</a> is eminently bumpable, But unless investors force the issue, don't expect a bump.</li>
</ul>


As totally expected, Dai Ichi Life Insurance (8750 JP) extended its expected start date for the Tender Offer on Benefit One Inc (2412 JP).
The possibility of a fourth Offer attempt by the Queks is raised as Elliott surprisingly exits its position in Guoco Group Ltd (53 HK).

Outsourcing Inc (2427 JP) is eminently bumpable, But unless investors force the issue, don't expect a bump.


Last Week in Event SPACE: Benefit One, Guoco, Outsourcing, Hang Lung, Hollysys, Dalek

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

<ul>
<li>The review period for a global index and a bunch of local indices ended last week. The announcement of the changes will be made in 1 week to 4 weeks.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/strike-energy-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:12473:1" rel="noopener">Strike Energy (STX AU)</a> will replace <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/costa-group-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22632:1" rel="noopener">Costa Group Holdings (CGC AU)</a> in the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/s-p-asx-200" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22901:1" rel="noopener">S&amp;P/ASX 200 (AS51 INDEX)</a> at the close on 8 February.</li>
<li>The inflows to mainland China ETFs continue for another week. There were big inflows to <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ishares-msci-india-etf" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:282:1" rel="noopener">iShares India ETF (INDA US)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ishares-msci-india-small-cap" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:32064:1" rel="noopener">Ishares India Small-Cap (SMIN US)</a>. </li>
</ul>


The review period for a global index and a bunch of local indices ended last week. The announcement of the changes will be made in 1 week to 4 weeks.

Strike Energy (STX AU) will replace Costa Group Holdings (CGC AU) in the S&amp;P/ASX 200 (AS51 INDEX) at the close on 8 February.
The inflows to mainland China ETFs continue for another week. There were big inflows to iShares India ETF (INDA US) and Ishares India Small-Cap (SMIN US). 


Index Rebalance & ETF Flow Recap: N225, ASX, STAR50, NIFTY50, KRX New Deal, UOL SP, Korea Passive

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/amer-sports-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:21751:1" rel="noopener">Amer Sports (AS US)</a> raised around US$1.3bn in its US IPO, after pricing its IPO below its initial range, as per media reports.</li>
<li>Amer Sports is a sports and outdoor brands company making clothing and other sporting equipment for use in snow sports, running, climbing, baseball, american football, tennis and other sports.</li>
<li>We have looked at the company’s performance and valuation in our past note. In this note, we talk about the trading dynamics.</li>
</ul>



Amer Sports (AS US) raised around US$1.3bn in its US IPO, after pricing its IPO below its initial range, as per media reports.
Amer Sports is a sports and outdoor brands company making clothing and other sporting equipment for use in snow sports, running, climbing, baseball, american football, tennis and other sports.
We have looked at the company’s performance and valuation in our past note. In this note, we talk about the trading dynamics.


Amer Sports IPO Trading - Downsized and Cornered, Close to Optimistic Fair Value

Japan

FAST RETAILING CO., LTD. operates a chain of clothing stores, UNIQLO, throughout Japan and in other markets overseas including UK, China, Hong Kong, South Korea, US, France, Singapore and Russia.  The Company designs, manufactures, and retails its own line of casual clothing.

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Fast Retailing (9983 JP)

FINAL PREDICTIONS: March 2024 Nikkei 225 Rebal (Socionext, Disco, and 1 Consumer Goods Stock to ADD)

The announcement will come out in <3 weeks. Since I published, we have an update that Yanai-san sold Fast Retailing shares, Nitori jumped 8% on...

Travis Lundy

ECM Weekly (4th Feb 2024) - Ola Electric, Mixue, Citicore, Amer, Thai Credit, Indus Tower, MTAL

Aequitas Research puts out a weekly update on the deals that were covered by the team recently along with updates for upcoming IPOs.

Sumeet Singh

Last Week in Event SPACE: Benefit One, Guoco, Outsourcing, Hang Lung, Hollysys, Dalek

The weekend is here! Pour yourself a coffee, grab a comfortable seat, and sift through a brief summary of insights on various events discussed...

David Blennerhassett

Index Rebalance & ETF Flow Recap: N225, ASX, STAR50, NIFTY50, KRX New Deal, UOL SP, Korea Passive

This recap highlights Insights covering Asian index rebalances (announcements/ forecasts/ IPO Fast Entry/ M&A driven changes). We also highlight...

Brian Freitas

Amer Sports IPO Trading - Downsized and Cornered, Close to Optimistic Fair Value

Amer Sports (AS US) raised around US$1.3bn in its US IPO, after pricing its IPO below its initial range, as per media reports.

Sumeet Singh

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