Japan Specialist

Mark Chadwick

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Fast Retailing is due to report Q3 results on 11 July. We update our views on the outlook for the stock heading into the announcement.</li>
<li>Uniqlo Japan has already released monthly sales data for the March to May quarter. Performance in May was again strong, slightly surpassing our estimates</li>
<li>We maintain our full year earnings estimates. The stock has declined by around 6% since Q2 results, but remains fully valued.</li>
</ul>


Fast Retailing is due to report Q3 results on 11 July. We update our views on the outlook for the stock heading into the announcement.
Uniqlo Japan has already released monthly sales data for the March to May quarter. Performance in May was again strong, slightly surpassing our estimates
We maintain our full year earnings estimates. The stock has declined by around 6% since Q2 results, but remains fully valued.


Fast Retailing (9983) | Positive Q3 Outlook, but Priced In

Derivatives and Quantitative Strategist

Gaudenz Schneider

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>This strategy exploits relative value in implied volatilities and combines it with a long Nifty 50 vs. short Nikkei 225 directional view over a period of two months.</li>
<li>The strategy performs well if the Nifty 50 rises <em>and</em> outperforms the Nikkei 225. If both indices decline, neither profit nor loss is incurred.</li>
<li>Leverage increases both the strategy's payoff and probability of success.</li>
</ul>


This strategy exploits relative value in implied volatilities and combines it with a long Nifty 50 vs. short Nikkei 225 directional view over a period of two months.
The strategy performs well if the Nifty 50 rises and outperforms the Nikkei 225. If both indices decline, neither profit nor loss is incurred.
Leverage increases both the strategy's payoff and probability of success.


EQD | Long Nifty 50 Vs. Short Nikkei 225 - A Relative Value Option Strategy with a Kicker

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/fast-retailing-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:751:1" rel="noopener">Fast Retailing (9983 JP)</a> today announced better than guided results, and 10% revenue growth, 18% OP growth to August 2024. NP is light, but still well higher than street consensus.</li>
<li>At 10.37% Nikkei 225 weight, it is still above the target for 31 July 2024. If it does not underperform Nikkei 225 between now and then, US$2bn to sell end-Sep24.</li>
<li>If people like the growthiness, that can be absorbed. But if the stock were to go up 10% vs Nikkei, there'd be US$2bn, then maybe another US$2bn to sell. </li>
</ul>



Fast Retailing (9983 JP) today announced better than guided results, and 10% revenue growth, 18% OP growth to August 2024. NP is light, but still well higher than street consensus.
At 10.37% Nikkei 225 weight, it is still above the target for 31 July 2024. If it does not underperform Nikkei 225 between now and then, US$2bn to sell end-Sep24.
If people like the growthiness, that can be absorbed. But if the stock were to go up 10% vs Nikkei, there'd be US$2bn, then maybe another US$2bn to sell. 


Fast Retailing (9983) Beats Guidance, Stronger Forecasts, STILL Has a Nikkei 225 Problem

<ul>
<li>Fast Retailing’s stock price is overvalued and faces downside risks from its Q3 results (maybe), China outlook (perhaps), and index rebalancing (most likely).</li>
<li>Fast Retailing has enjoyed a premium over its global peers largely due to its higher exposure to China growth. Any wobbles here could be negative catalyst</li>
<li>There is also a technical issue that will likely cap the weighting of Fast Retailing in the Nikkei 225 = index selling pressure</li>
</ul>


Fast Retailing’s stock price is overvalued and faces downside risks from its Q3 results (maybe), China outlook (perhaps), and index rebalancing (most likely).
Fast Retailing has enjoyed a premium over its global peers largely due to its higher exposure to China growth. Any wobbles here could be negative catalyst
There is also a technical issue that will likely cap the weighting of Fast Retailing in the Nikkei 225 = index selling pressure


Fast Retailing (9983) | Is China Still Recovering?

Equity Analyst, LightStream Research

Oshadhi Kumarasiri

Equity Analyst

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

<ul>
<li>Japan's strong domestic demand and a rebound in China fuel optimistic growth outlook for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/fast-retailing-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:751:1" rel="noopener">Fast Retailing (9983 JP)</a> in the short term.</li>
<li>Furthermore, the markets such as Europe, North America, South East Asia, India, and Australia present promising long-term growth opportunities.</li>
<li>However, Fast Retailing's valuation is a cause for concern as it currently trades at a consensus FY27 OP of 20.0x.</li>
</ul>


Japan's strong domestic demand and a rebound in China fuel optimistic growth outlook for Fast Retailing (9983 JP) in the short term.
Furthermore, the markets such as Europe, North America, South East Asia, India, and Australia present promising long-term growth opportunities.
However, Fast Retailing's valuation is a cause for concern as it currently trades at a consensus FY27 OP of 20.0x.


Fast Retailing: Opportunities for Long-Term Growth Overshadowed by High Valuation

Japan

FAST RETAILING CO., LTD. operates a chain of clothing stores, UNIQLO, throughout Japan and in other markets overseas including UK, China, Hong Kong, South Korea, US, France, Singapore and Russia.  The Company designs, manufactures, and retails its own line of casual clothing.

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Fast Retailing (9983 JP)

Fast Retailing (9983) | Positive Q3 Outlook, but Priced In

H&M reported Q2 results with sales growth +3% and gross profits +11% YoY. Inditex, which reported a month earlier, saw sales +7% YoY. Both...

Mark Chadwick

EQD | Long Nifty 50 Vs. Short Nikkei 225 - A Relative Value Option Strategy with a Kicker

Option strategy: exploit relative value in implied volatilities combined with directional positioning for a leveraged payoff in a long Nifty 50 vs....

Gaudenz Schneider

Fast Retailing (9983) Beats Guidance, Stronger Forecasts, STILL Has a Nikkei 225 Problem

Fast Retailing beat its guidance and consensus forecasts, and guidance to Aug 2024 is ahead of consensus by a ways. But the stock still has a...

Travis Lundy

Fast Retailing (9983) | Is China Still Recovering?

Fast Retailing’s stock price is overvalued and faces downside risks from its Q3 results (maybe), China outlook (perhaps), and index rebalancing...

Mark Chadwick

Fast Retailing: Opportunities for Long-Term Growth Overshadowed by High Valuation

Markets such as Europe, North America, South East Asia, India, and Australia present promising long-term growth opportunities, but at a consensus...

Oshadhi Kumarasiri

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