Japan Specialist

Mark Chadwick

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Inditex's rare quarterly miss on sales and profit, driven by currency fluctuations, may heighten sensitivity around Fast Retailing's upcoming Q1 results</li>
<li>For Fast, the risk would be a top-line miss given high valuation multiples and elevated expectations</li>
<li>Over the past several quarters, Fast's superior top line growth has supported higher valuation multiples. We expect 9% revenue growth in Q1</li>
</ul>


Inditex's rare quarterly miss on sales and profit, driven by currency fluctuations, may heighten sensitivity around Fast Retailing's upcoming Q1 results
For Fast, the risk would be a top-line miss given high valuation multiples and elevated expectations
Over the past several quarters, Fast's superior top line growth has supported higher valuation multiples. We expect 9% revenue growth in Q1


Fast Retailing (9983) | Inditex's Q3 Miss - Implications for Uniqlo

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>The review period for the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nikkei-225" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22909:1" rel="noopener">Nikkei 225 Index</a> March rebalance ends in January. There could be one outright change and one or two others driven by sector balance.</li>
<li>Depending on the changes, passive trackers will need to buy between 8.2-20.5x ADV (8.75%-24.5% of real float) and sell between 9-38x ADV on the deletions.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/fast-retailing-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:751:1" rel="noopener">Fast Retailing</a>'s PAF could see a double reduction to keep the stock weight capped at 10%. There will be huge passive selling leading to funding inflows for other index constituents.</li>
</ul>


The review period for the Nikkei 225 Index March rebalance ends in January. There could be one outright change and one or two others driven by sector balance.
Depending on the changes, passive trackers will need to buy between 8.2-20.5x ADV (8.75%-24.5% of real float) and sell between 9-38x ADV on the deletions.

Fast Retailing's PAF could see a double reduction to keep the stock weight capped at 10%. There will be huge passive selling leading to funding inflows for other index constituents.


Nikkei 225 Index Rebalance Preview (Mar 2025): Ranking, Capping, Funding & Other Changes

<ul>
<li>Fast Retailing, through its flagship Uniqlo, is redefining retail by focusing on high-quality, functional apparel, surpassing global peers in operating profit margins.</li>
<li>The company’s “scrap &amp; build” strategy revitalizes underperforming stores in China, while expanding internationally, with a strong growth trajectory across North America and Europe.</li>
<li>With a revised fair value of 52,500 yen, we forecast significant sales growth, driven by favorable seasonal trends, global expansion and recovering consumer sentiment in China.</li>
</ul>


Fast Retailing, through its flagship Uniqlo, is redefining retail by focusing on high-quality, functional apparel, surpassing global peers in operating profit margins.
The company’s “scrap &amp; build” strategy revitalizes underperforming stores in China, while expanding internationally, with a strong growth trajectory across North America and Europe.
With a revised fair value of 52,500 yen, we forecast significant sales growth, driven by favorable seasonal trends, global expansion and recovering consumer sentiment in China.


Fast Retailing(9983) | Weaving a Global Empire; FY8/25 Outlook

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

<ul>
<li>At end-September, the Nikkei 225 semi-annual review imposed a "cap" on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/fast-retailing-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:751:1" rel="noopener">Fast Retailing (9983 JP)</a> in the Average, applying a 0.9 coefficient to the Price Adjustment Factor.</li>
<li>At its current weight, Fast Retailing will be capped again in March 2025. If the stock outperforms Nikkei 225 by another 3% before 31 January 2025, it could be double-capped.</li>
<li>And an additional 16% would mean ¥1.1trln of sales in March. But like last time, this is a rubber band which stretches. Too far, and selling pressure is obvious.</li>
</ul>


At end-September, the Nikkei 225 semi-annual review imposed a "cap" on Fast Retailing (9983 JP) in the Average, applying a 0.9 coefficient to the Price Adjustment Factor.
At its current weight, Fast Retailing will be capped again in March 2025. If the stock outperforms Nikkei 225 by another 3% before 31 January 2025, it could be double-capped.
And an additional 16% would mean ¥1.1trln of sales in March. But like last time, this is a rubber band which stretches. Too far, and selling pressure is obvious.


Mar25 Nikkei 225 Rebal: Considering Fast Retailing Capping.... Again...

Expert on Japan Retail and Consumer Markets, JapanConsuming

Michael Causton

Expert on Japan Retail and Consumer Markets

Real Insight on Japanese Consumer Markets

JapanConsuming

JapanConsuming is a specialist research firm producing intelligence on Japanese retail and consumer markets. Founded in 2000, JapanConsuming has become the leading provider of insights on Japanese retailers and consumer trends to retailers, brands, government agencies and investors. As well as a highly regarded monthly report on the market, JapanConsuming produces in-depth reports on retail sectors, seminars on key trends and telephone consulting to investors on trends and retailers.

JapanConsuming was founded by Michael Causton and Roy Larke. 

<ul>
<li>Uniqlo’s European arm is on a roll, with more stores, higher sales and a loyal fan base. 35% of customers were under 29 last year up from 16% in 2019.</li>
<li>Uniqlo is also doing better at home but it needs the boost from newer markets given concerns over growth in China.</li>
<li>And it is far too early to know whether GU's formal launch in the US will pay off but so far so good.</li>
</ul>


Uniqlo’s European arm is on a roll, with more stores, higher sales and a loyal fan base. 35% of customers were under 29 last year up from 16% in 2019.
Uniqlo is also doing better at home but it needs the boost from newer markets given concerns over growth in China.
And it is far too early to know whether GU's formal launch in the US will pay off but so far so good.


Japan

FAST RETAILING CO., LTD. operates a chain of clothing stores, UNIQLO, throughout Japan and in other markets overseas including UK, China, Hong Kong, South Korea, US, France, Singapore and Russia.  The Company designs, manufactures, and retails its own line of casual clothing.

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Fast Retailing (9983 JP)

Fast Retailing (9983) | Inditex's Q3 Miss - Implications for Uniqlo

Fast's strong growth in recent quarters has supported elevated valuation multiples, with an expected 9% revenue growth in Q1.

Mark Chadwick

Nikkei 225 Index Rebalance Preview (Mar 2025): Ranking, Capping, Funding & Other Changes

There should be 1 change, could be 3 due to sector balance. The impact on the potential changes varies from 8-38x ADV. Fast Retailing could see a...

Brian Freitas

Fast Retailing(9983) | Weaving a Global Empire; FY8/25 Outlook

Fast Retailing's Uniqlo is redefining retail with high-quality apparel, strong profit margins, and global expansion plans driving significant...

Mark Chadwick

Mar25 Nikkei 225 Rebal: Considering Fast Retailing Capping.... Again...

Fast Retailing is the first Nikkei 225 stock to be capped. That meant nearly ¥400bn of selling yesterday. Now it is due to be capped again in 6...

Travis Lundy

Uniqlo’s European Romance

Uniqlo's European expansion has momentum with increased sales and a younger customer base, while growth in China remains uncertain and GU's US...

Michael Causton

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Fast Retailing (9983) | Inditex's Q3 Miss - Implications for Uniqlo

Fast's strong growth in recent quarters has supported elevated valuation multiples, with an expected 9% revenue growth in Q1.

Mark Chadwick

Nikkei 225 Index Rebalance Preview (Mar 2025): Ranking, Capping, Funding & Other Changes

There should be 1 change, could be 3 due to sector balance. The impact on the potential changes varies from 8-38x ADV. Fast Retailing could see a...

Brian Freitas

Fast Retailing(9983) | Weaving a Global Empire; FY8/25 Outlook

​Fast Retailing's Uniqlo is redefining retail with high-quality apparel, strong profit margins, and global expansion plans driving significant...

Mark Chadwick

Mar25 Nikkei 225 Rebal: Considering Fast Retailing Capping.... Again...

Fast Retailing is the first Nikkei 225 stock to be capped. That meant nearly ¥400bn of selling yesterday. Now it is due to be capped again in 6...

Travis Lundy

Uniqlo’s European Romance

​Uniqlo's European expansion has momentum with increased sales and a younger customer base, while growth in China remains uncertain and GU's US...

Michael Causton

Fast Retailing's Uniqlo is redefining retail with high-quality apparel, strong profit margins, and global expansion plans driving significant...

Uniqlo's European expansion has momentum with increased sales and a younger customer base, while growth in China remains uncertain and GU's US...