Japan/Asia Long-Short, LightStream Research

Mio Kato

Japan/Asia Long-Short

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

Equity Bottom-Up

Maruti reported 1Q results yesterday missing consensus as the company narrowly avoided generating an operating loss. OP was just INR0.78bn and in addition to material cost inflation we pointed to, labour cost was also surprisingly high, illustrating Maruti’s negative sensitivity to inflationary pressures.

Maruti reported 1Q results yesterday missing consensus as the company narrowly avoided generating an operating loss. OP was just INR0.78bn and in addition to material cost inflation we pointed to, labour cost was also surprisingly high, illustrating Maruti’s negative sensitivity to inflationary pressures.

Suzuki – Maruti Weakness Makes Our Predicted Miss Likely

While we expect results to be broadly strong for Japanese automakers thanks to favourable forex trends and strong unit volumes in North America, Suzuki unfortunately does not benefit greatly from these. Rather, it is highly negatively impacted by commodity prices, and we believe consensus does not adequately reflect this.

While we expect results to be broadly strong for Japanese automakers thanks to favourable forex trends and strong unit volumes in North America, Suzuki unfortunately does not benefit greatly from these. Rather, it is highly negatively impacted by commodity prices, and we believe consensus does not adequately reflect this.

Suzuki – Could Be the Only J-Auto to Miss at 1Q

SGX Market Strategist, Equity & Fixed Income, Singapore Exchange Ltd (SGX)

Geoff Howie

SGX Market Strategist, Equity & Fixed Income

Asia’s leading multi-asset exchange

Singapore Exchange Ltd (SGX)

Singapore Exchange is Asia’s leading and trusted market infrastructure, facilitating the exchange of capital and ideas to create value for people, businesses and economies. As a multi-asset exchange operating equity, fixed income and derivatives markets to the highest regulatory standards, SGX is a vertically integrated business that provides listing, trading, clearing, settlement, depository and data services.

With about 40% of listed companies and over 80% of listed bonds originating outside of Singapore as well as established linkages across the region and in Europe, SGX is Asia’s most international and connected exchange. Offering a full suite of derivatives products across Asian equity indices, commodities and currencies, SGX is the world’s most liquid international market for the benchmark equity indices of China, India, Japan and ASEAN.

As Asia’s pioneering central counterparty, SGX is globally recognised for its risk management and clearing capabilities, and was one of the first globally to adopt the Principles for Financial Market Infrastructure.

Headquartered in AAA-rated Singapore, SGX has over 800 employees including offices in Beijing, Chicago, Hong Kong, London, New York, Mumbai, San Francisco, Shanghai and Tokyo.

Suzuki reported its 4QFY21 results on Thursday which saw revenues increase YoY by 16% and operating profits of ¥56bn (+25% YoY) implying an OPM of 5.6%.The reported results were 6.8%% and 0.6% higher than consensus revenue and OP respectively, but a lack of guidance combined with deteriorating conditions in India and rising cost inflation are likely to keep the stock in check despite some nice signs in its peripheral businesses.<table class="table table-striped"><tbody>
<tr>
<td style="width: 44.28%;">In ¥bn</td>
<td style="width: 15.48%;">Revenue </td>
<td style="width: 22.88%;">OP</td>
<td style="width: 17.36%;">OPM</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="width: 44.28%;">Actual Results - 4QFY21</td>
<td style="width: 15.48%;">1,003</td>
<td style="width: 22.88%;">56</td>
<td style="width: 17.36%;">5.6%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="width: 44.28%;">Consensus - 4QFY21</td>
<td style="width: 15.48%;">939</td>
<td style="width: 22.88%;">55</td>
<td style="width: 17.36%;">5.9%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="width: 44.28%;">Surprise</td>
<td style="width: 15.48%;">6.8%</td>
<td style="width: 22.88%;">0.6%</td>
<td style="width: 17.36%;">-0.3%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="width: 44.28%;"> </td>
<td style="width: 15.48%;"> </td>
<td style="width: 22.88%;"> </td>
<td style="width: 17.36%;"> </td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="width: 44.28%;">Actual Results - FY21</td>
<td style="width: 15.48%;">3,178</td>
<td style="width: 22.88%;">194</td>
<td style="width: 17.36%;">6.1%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="width: 44.28%;">Guidance - FY21</td>
<td style="width: 15.48%;">3,000</td>
<td style="width: 22.88%;">160</td>
<td style="width: 17.36%;">5.3%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="width: 44.28%;">Surprise</td>
<td style="width: 15.48%;">5.9%</td>
<td style="width: 22.88%;">21.5%</td>
<td style="width: 17.36%;">0.8%</td>
</tr>
</tbody></table><div style="text-align: left;" class="content-caption">Source: Company disclosures, CapIQ</div>

Suzuki reported its 4QFY21 results on Thursday which saw revenues increase YoY by 16% and operating profits of ¥56bn (+25% YoY) implying an OPM of 5.6%.The reported results were 6.8%% and 0.6% higher than consensus revenue and OP respectively, but a lack of guidance combined with deteriorating conditions in India and rising cost inflation are likely to keep the stock in check despite some nice signs in its peripheral businesses.

In ¥bn
Revenue 
OP
OPM


Actual Results - 4QFY21
1,003
56
5.6%


Consensus - 4QFY21
939
55
5.9%


Surprise
6.8%
0.6%
-0.3%


 
 
 
 


Actual Results - FY21
3,178
194
6.1%


Guidance - FY21
3,000
160
5.3%


Surprise
5.9%
21.5%
0.8%

Source: Company disclosures, CapIQ

Equity L/S Analyst | Forensic Accounting | India, Yellowstone Equity

Ankit Agrawal, CFA

Equity L/S Analyst | Forensic Accounting | India

Quantitative Analysis

Since our Original on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/asia-buyback-forecasting-which-companies-are-likely-to-raise-cut-buybacks" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:47196" rel="noopener">Asia Buyback Forecasting | Which Companies Are Likely to Raise/Cut Buybacks?</a>, published on Jan 31 2021, this is our first quarterly update. Below we provide updated results from our models based on latest reported fiscal year-end financials. We also discuss companies where there is notable change in our conviction level based on updated data.
At the webinar in March, there was also a request for conducting price movement analysis corresponding to our buyback raise/cut outlook for our back-test results. This analysis is now available. Our results show a decent outperformance/underperformance corresponding to buyback raise/cut prediction, suggesting that users of our models will benefit from guiding their investment decisions based on our buyback raise/cut outlook.

Since our Original on Asia Buyback Forecasting | Which Companies Are Likely to Raise/Cut Buybacks?, published on Jan 31 2021, this is our first quarterly update. Below we provide updated results from our models based on latest reported fiscal year-end financials. We also discuss companies where there is notable change in our conviction level based on updated data.
At the webinar in March, there was also a request for conducting price movement analysis corresponding to our buyback raise/cut outlook for our back-test results. This analysis is now available. Our results show a decent outperformance/underperformance corresponding to buyback raise/cut prediction, suggesting that users of our models will benefit from guiding their investment decisions based on our buyback raise/cut outlook.

Asia Buyback Forecasting | Quarterly Update 1.0

Japan

Suzuki Motor Corporation manufactures automobiles, motorcycles, and their related parts. The Company has production facilities in USA, Japan, Taiwan, India, Pakistan, Indonesia, Thailand, and Hungary.

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Suzuki Motor (7269 JP)

Suzuki – Maruti Weakness Makes Our Predicted Miss Likely

Maruti results showed that in addition to the material cost inflation we pointed to, labour cost was also surprisingly high, illustrating the...

Mio Kato

Suzuki – Could Be the Only J-Auto to Miss at 1Q

Commodity inflation and seasonality could result in a 1Q earnings miss for Suzuki which consensus does not appear to have caught onto.

Mio Kato

Asia Currencies and Commodities Insights

By Macro Hive SGX Asia Currencies Insights Highest real rates in EM indicate portfolio inflows and further yuan strength. Reduced mobility...

Singapore Exchange Ltd (SGX)

Suzuki – Waiting on India

Suzuki results came in marginally above consensus, but less so on margins as cost inflation pressured profits in India. Despite some nice signs in...

Mio Kato

Asia Buyback Forecasting | Quarterly Update 1.0

This is our first quarterly update since our Original on Buyback Forecasting. We provide updated results based on latest year-end financials.

Ankit Agrawal, CFA

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