Semiconductors, Memory and SSDs Specialist, Objective Analysis

Jim Handy

Semiconductors, Memory and SSDs Specialist

Objective Analysis

Objective Analysis offers third-party independent market research and data for the semiconductor industry and investors in the semiconductor industry.

Semiconductors, Memory and SSDs

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

After Japan's earthquake automobile makers had a lot to worry about, since they were already faced with critical semiconductor shortages.  Now unusually bad weather has hit much of the US, and has stopped chip production in three important fabs in Austin, Texas.  This Insight explores the winners and losers in this series of events.

After Japan's earthquake automobile makers had a lot to worry about, since they were already faced with critical semiconductor shortages.  Now unusually bad weather has hit much of the US, and has stopped chip production in three important fabs in Austin, Texas.  This Insight explores the winners and losers in this series of events.

Texas Weather Deals Second Blow to Automotive Chip Supply Chain

Asset Allocation & Fund Positioning, Copley Fund Research

Steven Holden

Asset Allocation & Fund Positioning

Copley Fund Research

Copley Fund Research provide research and data on asset allocation among Global and Emerging Market equity funds.  The analysis details absolute and relative positioning across countries, sectors and industries together with highly granular data on single stock and single fund allocations.  The data is updated monthly with time series going back to January 2011.

Global Research - Analysis of 165 prominent Global equity funds, combined AUM $335bn
GEM Research - Analysis of 127 prominent global EM equity funds, combined AUM $250bn

Asset Allocation - Global and GEM Equity

Cross Asset Strategy

With the Nikkei 225 index breaking 30k this month, we thought it pertinent to look in more detail at Japan positioning among Global fund managers.  Our data shows that Japan is underowned by Global managers versus its own history and held underweight versus the benchmark MSCI All Country World index.  Current positioning levels are towards their lowest ever levels, yet we are not seeing a sweeping reversal of sentiment in our data just yet, merely a stalling of the declines. However, the outperformance of MSCI Japan versus the AC World index over the last 6-months and the psychological breaking of 30,000 in the Nikkei 225 index are both signs that momentum is gathering steam.   We see rising ownership levels in a number of key companies, led by <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sony-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:563:1" rel="noopener">Sony Corp (6758 JP)</a> , <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nintendo-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5415:1" rel="noopener">Nintendo Co Ltd (7974 JP)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tokyo-electron-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:280:1" rel="noopener">Tokyo Electron (8035 JP)</a> and high conviction in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/keyence-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3077:1" rel="noopener">Keyence Corp (6861 JP)</a> among Global investors.  Outside of these 4 stocks, we would highlight the largest index weight, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/toyota-motor-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:73:1" rel="noopener">Toyota Motor (7203 JP)</a> as a laggard and a stock that has the potential to play a much greater role in Global portfolios going forwards.Analysis taken from our Global active fund research, covering 386 managers with combined AUM of $960bn

With the Nikkei 225 index breaking 30k this month, we thought it pertinent to look in more detail at Japan positioning among Global fund managers.  Our data shows that Japan is underowned by Global managers versus its own history and held underweight versus the benchmark MSCI All Country World index.  Current positioning levels are towards their lowest ever levels, yet we are not seeing a sweeping reversal of sentiment in our data just yet, merely a stalling of the declines. However, the outperformance of MSCI Japan versus the AC World index over the last 6-months and the psychological breaking of 30,000 in the Nikkei 225 index are both signs that momentum is gathering steam.   We see rising ownership levels in a number of key companies, led by Sony Corp (6758 JP) , Nintendo Co Ltd (7974 JP) and Tokyo Electron (8035 JP) and high conviction in Keyence Corp (6861 JP) among Global investors.  Outside of these 4 stocks, we would highlight the largest index weight, Toyota Motor (7203 JP) as a laggard and a stock that has the potential to play a much greater role in Global portfolios going forwards.Analysis taken from our Global active fund research, covering 386 managers with combined AUM of $960bn 

Global Fund Positioning in Japan:  Underweight and Underowned

Equity Bottom-Up

From a positioning perspective, our analysis shows that <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/toyota-motor-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:73:1" rel="noopener">Toyota Motor (7203 JP)</a> is one of the largest underweights in Asia and highly under-owned versus its own historical levels.  Just 12.7% of Global managers hold a position in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/toyota-motor-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:73:1" rel="noopener">Toyota Motor (7203 JP)</a> , down from a high of 31% in 2013.Despite these low investment levels, there are signs that sentiment is starting to turn across a number of our holdings metrics;  average weights have moved off the lows, the percentage of funds invested has increased and the net underweight is at it's lowest level in a decade.For Global managers, to hold nothing in Toyota aligns you with the majority of active peers and risks underperformance against the benchmark should the investment case for Toyota improve, as highlighted in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/mio-kato" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="accounts:713" rel="noopener">Mio Kato's</a> bullish thesis <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/toyota-real-strength-shining-through" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:48014" rel="noopener">Toyota – Real Strength Shining Through</a> .  To hold an overweight, although being out-of-consensus, has the potential to drive outperformance against both active and passive peers.  Furthermore, should sentiment turn, the flow effect of Global funds buying back in to <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/toyota-motor-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:73:1" rel="noopener">Toyota Motor (7203 JP)</a> will be supportive.Analysis taken from our Global active fund research, covering 386 managers with combined AUM of $960bn

From a positioning perspective, our analysis shows that Toyota Motor (7203 JP) is one of the largest underweights in Asia and highly under-owned versus its own historical levels.  Just 12.7% of Global managers hold a position in Toyota Motor (7203 JP) , down from a high of 31% in 2013.Despite these low investment levels, there are signs that sentiment is starting to turn across a number of our holdings metrics;  average weights have moved off the lows, the percentage of funds invested has increased and the net underweight is at it's lowest level in a decade.For Global managers, to hold nothing in Toyota aligns you with the majority of active peers and risks underperformance against the benchmark should the investment case for Toyota improve, as highlighted in Mio Kato's bullish thesis Toyota – Real Strength Shining Through .  To hold an overweight, although being out-of-consensus, has the potential to drive outperformance against both active and passive peers.  Furthermore, should sentiment turn, the flow effect of Global funds buying back in to Toyota Motor (7203 JP) will be supportive.Analysis taken from our Global active fund research, covering 386 managers with combined AUM of $960bn

Toyota Motor (7203):  Chronically Underinvested:  Turnaround Potential

Saturday's 7.1 earthquake in Japan could have caused important supply disruptions for semiconductors.  We reached out to over a dozen companies to check their status, and those who replied indicated that there was little impact.  Still, the automotive sector has reason to be nervous.

Saturday's 7.1 earthquake in Japan could have caused important supply disruptions for semiconductors.  We reached out to over a dozen companies to check their status, and those who replied indicated that there was little impact.  Still, the automotive sector has reason to be nervous.

Japan Quake and Chip Shortages, Tough on Auto?

Japan/Asia Long-Short, LightStream Research

Mio Kato

Japan/Asia Long-Short

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

Part of our thesis on Toyota is that the company is going through a transformation from being just the ever-reliable auto manufacturer it has been to a much more rounded company with more appealing designs and a far stronger ability to build emotional connections with its customers. To illustrate this, we examine some of Toyota’s commercials and the communications from CEO Akio Toyoda.

Part of our thesis on Toyota is that the company is going through a transformation from being just the ever-reliable auto manufacturer it has been to a much more rounded company with more appealing designs and a far stronger ability to build emotional connections with its customers. To illustrate this, we examine some of Toyota’s commercials and the communications from CEO Akio Toyoda.

Toyota – Superbowl Commercials and the Evolution of Toyota

Japan

Toyota Motor Corporation manufactures, sells, leases, and repairs passenger cars, trucks, buses, and their related parts worldwide. The Company also operates financing services through their subsidiaries. Toyota Motor builds homes, produces pleasure boats, and develops intelligent transportation systems including radar cruise control and electronic toll collection systems.

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Toyota Motor (7203 JP)

Texas Weather Deals Second Blow to Automotive Chip Supply Chain

A chip shortage is preventing the automotive industry from returning to full volume. Meanwhile Japan's earthquake and bad weather in Texas are...

Jim Handy

Global Fund Positioning in Japan: Underweight and Underowned

With the Nikkei 225 index breaking 30k this month, Global managers remain under-invested and underweight Japan versus the benchmark MSCI All...

Steven Holden

Toyota Motor (7203): Chronically Underinvested: Turnaround Potential

Toyota Motor (7203 JP) is one of the largest underweights in Asia and highly under-owned versus its own historical levels. Among Global active...

Steven Holden

Japan Quake and Chip Shortages, Tough on Auto?

Will Saturday's Japan earthquake further disrupt the semiconductor supply chain? Early reports seem tame enough, but automobile manufacturers are...

Jim Handy

Toyota – Superbowl Commercials and the Evolution of Toyota

On the day the Nikkei recovered the 30,000 level after three decades we look at the evolution of Toyota's image and character, and Japan's new...

Mio Kato

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