Founder/CEO of ROK Advisory, ROK Advisory LLC

Ken S. Kim

Founder/CEO of ROK Advisory

ROK Advisory LLC

ROK is an independent research advisory firm. We guide you to minimize the information gap between foreign and local investors in Northeast Asia with a focus in Korea, Taiwan and Japan.

Independent Research Advisory Firm

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

Does holding company ("holdco") discount in Korea apply to the likes of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sk-telecom-co-ltd-bbccd86c-474d-4a4d-946d-10e911a225a2" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:395:1" rel="noopener">SK Telecom (017670 KS)</a> , <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sk-holdings-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:393:1" rel="noopener">SK Holdings (034730 KS)</a> (now Inc), <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/osstem-implant-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1450:1" rel="noopener">Osstem Implant (048260 KS)</a> , <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/lg-chem-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3583:1" rel="noopener">LG Chem Ltd (051910 KS)</a> , <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kakao-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15002:1" rel="noopener">Kakao Corp (035720 KS)</a> , <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/fila-holdings-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10699:1" rel="noopener">Fila Holdings (081660 KS)</a> and others? To answer that question I think we need to know the history of the holdco in Korea.

Does holding company ("holdco") discount in Korea apply to the likes of SK Telecom (017670 KS) , SK Holdings (034730 KS) (now Inc), Osstem Implant (048260 KS) , LG Chem Ltd (051910 KS) , Kakao Corp (035720 KS) , Fila Holdings (081660 KS) and others? To answer that question I think we need to know the history of the holdco in Korea.

The Holding Company Dilemma in Korea -  What's the Right Discount?

Global Bank Equity Specialist, Creative Portfolios

Paul Hollingworth

Global Bank Equity Specialist

Creative Portfolios

Equity Bottom-Up

Similar to Hana and BNK, KB Financial Group catches the eye in terms of value-quality trends and fundamental momentum. South Korea commands some top quartile opportunities within our global universe of bank stocks. There are similar opportunities and risks plus trends with all the South Korean lenders.A PH Score™ of 7.9 reflects an enhancement in Profitability, in headline Efficiency, in headline Asset Quality, and in Provisioning. While Common Equity/Assets (a PH Score™ variable) showed discrete erosion, other Capitalisation ratios mostly showed marked progression, indicating that the underlying Score may understate KB’s progression. Having said that, the positive improvement in the headline CIR may paint a slightly flattering view of Efficiency enhancement which was on an underlying basis somewhat eroded YoY (double-digit OPEX expansion) while headline NPL amelioration may also mask the Asset Quality picture somewhat though we are relatively comfortable with delinquency levels. Liquidity deteriorated somewhat from a high LDR level.If there is an issue that concerns us, in line with other South Korean lenders, it is relatively subpar Earnings Quality, not picked up by the PH Score™ gauge. Bank Earnings here are highly dependent on trading gains and “other Noninterest Income”. This can flatter headline ratios. Debt/Equity remains high too.<div class="content-highlight">A FV of 7% a PBV of 0.55x are not unattractive given the respective thresholds of 10% and 1.0x. An Earnings Yield of 17.6% and a Total Return Ratio of 2.4x add to the attraction of the proposition. The Dividend Yield of 3.1% is a bonus. The bank commands well above-average fundamental momentum as testified by a robust PH Score™ while the VFM rankings reside in the top quartile globally.</div>KB balances consumer credit (53.4% of Loan book) including a strong mortgage presence with corporates (45.4%), backed mainly by (an increasing) transaction account funding base (52.8% of Deposits) and by Time Deposits (47.2% of Deposits).

Similar to Hana and BNK, KB Financial Group catches the eye in terms of value-quality trends and fundamental momentum. South Korea commands some top quartile opportunities within our global universe of bank stocks. There are similar opportunities and risks plus trends with all the South Korean lenders.A PH Score™ of 7.9 reflects an enhancement in Profitability, in headline Efficiency, in headline Asset Quality, and in Provisioning. While Common Equity/Assets (a PH Score™ variable) showed discrete erosion, other Capitalisation ratios mostly showed marked progression, indicating that the underlying Score may understate KB’s progression. Having said that, the positive improvement in the headline CIR may paint a slightly flattering view of Efficiency enhancement which was on an underlying basis somewhat eroded YoY (double-digit OPEX expansion) while headline NPL amelioration may also mask the Asset Quality picture somewhat though we are relatively comfortable with delinquency levels. Liquidity deteriorated somewhat from a high LDR level.If there is an issue that concerns us, in line with other South Korean lenders, it is relatively subpar Earnings Quality, not picked up by the PH Score™ gauge. Bank Earnings here are highly dependent on trading gains and “other Noninterest Income”. This can flatter headline ratios. Debt/Equity remains high too.A FV of 7% a PBV of 0.55x are not unattractive given the respective thresholds of 10% and 1.0x. An Earnings Yield of 17.6% and a Total Return Ratio of 2.4x add to the attraction of the proposition. The Dividend Yield of 3.1% is a bonus. The bank commands well above-average fundamental momentum as testified by a robust PH Score™ while the VFM rankings reside in the top quartile globally.KB balances consumer credit (53.4% of Loan book) including a strong mortgage presence with corporates (45.4%), backed mainly by (an increasing) transaction account funding base (52.8% of Deposits) and by Time Deposits (47.2% of Deposits).

KB: The Dichotomy Between Valuation and Earnings Quality

Korea / Special Sits, Pairs, Index Rebalancing, Clepsydra Capital

Sanghyun Park

Korea / Special Sits, Pairs, Index Rebalancing

Clepsydra Capital

Investigate special situations, pairs, and index rebalancing trades in Korea.

Event-Driven

Korea's financial regulators, the Financial Services Commission, had advised the local banks and bank holding companies to keep a dividend payout ratio below 20%. The purpose was clear. It was to secure a sufficient capital buffer to absorb potential losses resulting from COVID-19.This recommendation for the 20% cap is effective until the end of this month.The market widely expects the FSC to not renew this 20% dividend cap after this month amid the fast-rebounding economy.

Korea's financial regulators, the Financial Services Commission, had advised the local banks and bank holding companies to keep a dividend payout ratio below 20%. The purpose was clear. It was to secure a sufficient capital buffer to absorb potential losses resulting from COVID-19.This recommendation for the 20% cap is effective until the end of this month.The market widely expects the FSC to not renew this 20% dividend cap after this month amid the fast-rebounding economy.

Korea Banks 20% Dividend Cap Scrapping: Projected Div Payout & Yield of 8 Bank Stocks

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Quantitative Analysis

Short selling has finally resumed in Korea and it has been a busy couple of days on that front with foreign investors piling into stocks that have run up more than their peers over the last year and are potentially overvalued.Long/short pairs could be implemented in Korea during the short sell ban if you had long inventory or if there were listed single stock futures on the short leg.With short selling permitted on constituents of the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/korea-stock-exchange-kospi-200-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26021:1" rel="noopener">Korea Stock Exchange Kospi 200 Index (KOSPI2 INDEX)</a>, we take a look at long/short pairs where both stocks are members of the index. These pairs belong to the same GICS sub-industry, are correlated and exhibit mean-reversion. We also use short sale data from the last couple of trading sessions to see which stocks are being targeted by short sellers.

Short selling has finally resumed in Korea and it has been a busy couple of days on that front with foreign investors piling into stocks that have run up more than their peers over the last year and are potentially overvalued.Long/short pairs could be implemented in Korea during the short sell ban if you had long inventory or if there were listed single stock futures on the short leg.With short selling permitted on constituents of the Korea Stock Exchange Kospi 200 Index (KOSPI2 INDEX), we take a look at long/short pairs where both stocks are members of the index. These pairs belong to the same GICS sub-industry, are correlated and exhibit mean-reversion. We also use short sale data from the last couple of trading sessions to see which stocks are being targeted by short sellers.

Korea Pair Trades: High Risk/Reward Names with Short Sell Screen

Financials Credit Analyst

Hank Calenti, CFA

CreditContinuum

Credit

Executive Summary: The US Treasury bond market rally gave up the ghost at the longer-end of the curve while excess cash levels compressed rates at the short-end last week. The Treasury curve bull steepened for the first time in over three weeks.Market participants re-positioned into month-end and ahead of April data releases over the next two weeks. Expectations are for strong economic data. High readings could prove bearish for Treasury prices. However, since the markets are forward looking, the question is also why are rates not already higher?As markets focused on upside inflation risks, with commodity prices continuing to surge, both Sweden’s Riksbank and the Bank of Japan highlighted soft inflation pressures in their latest policy meetings. These statements may add to uncertainty over how sustainable the current rise in US inflation may prove to be.At the same time, the run-off of the US Treasury Department’s cash balances at the Fed continues to keep pressure on repo rates. This in turn is resulting in a melt-up with two year and under area yields being squeezed tighter as investors move up the curve for a return. For more on this melt-up approach, please see: <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/compose/insight/50971/Bank%20Credit%20Strategy:%20Melt-Up%20Before%20Meltdown,%20Where%20to%20Position.%20Read%20more:%20https:/skr.ma/W1NcQ" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Bank Credit Strategy: Melt-Up Before Meltdown, Where to Position</a>. In bank credit, with short-end interest rates compressing week-on-week and short-end credit tightening, positive total returns were easy to generate. Although credit spreads tightened more in the long- than short-end, Treasury curve steepening meant that positive total returns were not realized in longer dated notes. Most Asia-headquartered bank credits tightened by two- to three- basis points week-on-week. Tier 2 and HY Senior Unsecured notes tended to outperform on a spread basis. Most European-headquartered bank credits tightened by three- to four- basis points week-on-week. Lower risk Senior Bail-in bonds delivered higher average spread tighteningWith peak earnings season now behind us, the upcoming week will essentially complete Q1 reports for most major financial institutions. US banks signaled that they anticipate significantly higher interest rates by raising record breaking amounts in the debt capital markets following their Q1 earnings announcements. Other banks may follow. May is historically the start of a bullish period for Treasuries. However, as we start the month, the absence of evidence should not be taken as evidence of its absence. Various holidays around the world may reduce visibility over the next week. Markets in China, Japan and the UK are closed on Monday, with those in Tokyo and China shut through Wednesday. Look to the end of the week for more directionality. We explore these market themes within.Market Outlook: Already looking past upcoming spikes in inflation and job creation, the Treasury market is more constrained in terms of rates than was previously expected. This should be risk asset supportive. The concern is that of impotent monetary policy and a constrained fiscal response in a shorter than expected business cycle.

Executive Summary: The US Treasury bond market rally gave up the ghost at the longer-end of the curve while excess cash levels compressed rates at the short-end last week. The Treasury curve bull steepened for the first time in over three weeks.Market participants re-positioned into month-end and ahead of April data releases over the next two weeks. Expectations are for strong economic data. High readings could prove bearish for Treasury prices. However, since the markets are forward looking, the question is also why are rates not already higher?As markets focused on upside inflation risks, with commodity prices continuing to surge, both Sweden’s Riksbank and the Bank of Japan highlighted soft inflation pressures in their latest policy meetings. These statements may add to uncertainty over how sustainable the current rise in US inflation may prove to be.At the same time, the run-off of the US Treasury Department’s cash balances at the Fed continues to keep pressure on repo rates. This in turn is resulting in a melt-up with two year and under area yields being squeezed tighter as investors move up the curve for a return. For more on this melt-up approach, please see: Bank Credit Strategy: Melt-Up Before Meltdown, Where to Position. In bank credit, with short-end interest rates compressing week-on-week and short-end credit tightening, positive total returns were easy to generate. Although credit spreads tightened more in the long- than short-end, Treasury curve steepening meant that positive total returns were not realized in longer dated notes. Most Asia-headquartered bank credits tightened by two- to three- basis points week-on-week. Tier 2 and HY Senior Unsecured notes tended to outperform on a spread basis. Most European-headquartered bank credits tightened by three- to four- basis points week-on-week. Lower risk Senior Bail-in bonds delivered higher average spread tighteningWith peak earnings season now behind us, the upcoming week will essentially complete Q1 reports for most major financial institutions. US banks signaled that they anticipate significantly higher interest rates by raising record breaking amounts in the debt capital markets following their Q1 earnings announcements. Other banks may follow. May is historically the start of a bullish period for Treasuries. However, as we start the month, the absence of evidence should not be taken as evidence of its absence. Various holidays around the world may reduce visibility over the next week. Markets in China, Japan and the UK are closed on Monday, with those in Tokyo and China shut through Wednesday. Look to the end of the week for more directionality. We explore these market themes within.Market Outlook: Already looking past upcoming spikes in inflation and job creation, the Treasury market is more constrained in terms of rates than was previously expected. This should be risk asset supportive. The concern is that of impotent monetary policy and a constrained fiscal response in a shorter than expected business cycle.  

Bank Credit Weekly: Bull Steepening, but Is It Sustainable?

South Korea

KB Financial Group Inc. (the "Company"), in accordance with Financial Holding Companies Act, was established on September 29, 2008, through stock transfer with the former shareholders of its subsidiaries including Kookmin Bank in order to provide management services and financing to associated companies. The headquarters are located at Seoul, Korea

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KB Financial (105560 KS)

The Holding Company Dilemma in Korea - What's the Right Discount?

The discount rate to NAV that is rule of thumb in Korea is 30% but does not make sense across the board? We discuss if there is a better way to...

Ken S. Kim

KB: The Dichotomy Between Valuation and Earnings Quality

KB shares can hardly be called dear and fundamental trends are strong. We do caution though on Earnings Quality and a high LDR and D/E ratio.

Paul Hollingworth

Korea Banks 20% Dividend Cap Scrapping: Projected Div Payout & Yield of 8 Bank Stocks

Korea's financial regulators will likely scrap the 20% dividend payout ratio cap this month. This post investigates the projected dividend payout...

Sanghyun Park

Korea Pair Trades: High Risk/Reward Names with Short Sell Screen

With the resumption of short selling in Korea, we highlight correlated pairs from the same GICS sub-industry that are near reversion points and...

Brian Freitas

Bank Credit Weekly: Bull Steepening, but Is It Sustainable?

Treasury yields bull steepened while the melt-up led credit total returns. Yield conviction may build as April economic data is published; however,...

Hank Calenti, CFA

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