Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>I tally 45 - mostly firm, mostly Asia-Pac - transactions currently being discussed and analysed on Smartkarma. Inside is a timetable of upcoming key events for each deal.</li>
<li>One new deal was discussed on Smartkarma this week: <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/haitong-securities-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:166:1" rel="noopener">Haitong Securities Co Ltd (A) (600837 CH)</a>'s Offer for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/haitong-international-securities-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13153:1" rel="noopener">Haitong International Securities Group (665 HK)</a>.</li>
<li>Key updates took place for: <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/origin-energy-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:797:1" rel="noopener">Origin Energy (ORG AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/estia-health-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:77:1" rel="noopener">Estia Health (EHE AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/newcrest-mining-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:691:1" rel="noopener">Newcrest Mining (NCM AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/liontown-resources-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20488:1" rel="noopener">Liontown Resources (LTR AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nws-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3350:1" rel="noopener">NWS (659 HK)</a>,<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/imax-china-holding-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:888:1" rel="noopener">IMAX China (1970 HK)</a>, and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/eoflow-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36100:1" rel="noopener">Eoflow (294090 KS)</a>.</li>
</ul>


I tally 45 - mostly firm, mostly Asia-Pac - transactions currently being discussed and analysed on Smartkarma. Inside is a timetable of upcoming key events for each deal.
One new deal was discussed on Smartkarma this week: Haitong Securities Co Ltd (A) (600837 CH)'s Offer for Haitong International Securities Group (665 HK).
Key updates took place for: Origin Energy (ORG AU), Estia Health (EHE AU), Newcrest Mining (NCM AU), Liontown Resources (LTR AU), NWS (659 HK),IMAX China (1970 HK), and Eoflow (294090 KS).


(Mostly) Asia-Pac Weekly Risk Arb Wrap: Newcrest Mining, Haitong Int'l, Liontown, NWS, IMAX China

<ul>
<li>Accelerating the Offer timetable for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nws-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3350:1" rel="noopener">NWS (659 HK)</a> such that it closes before the dividend ex-date appeared stingy. But why pay dividends to shareholders that won’t hold the shares anymore?</li>
<li>Those concerns have been put to rest with the despatch of NWS' Composite Doc and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/new-world-development" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:7037:1" rel="noopener">New World (17 HK)</a>'s Circular, guaranteeing all shareholders the dividend, no matter the Offer outcome.</li>
<li>The key risk now is NWD's independent shareholder vote. On balance, this should get up.</li>
</ul>


Accelerating the Offer timetable for NWS (659 HK) such that it closes before the dividend ex-date appeared stingy. But why pay dividends to shareholders that won’t hold the shares anymore?
Those concerns have been put to rest with the despatch of NWS' Composite Doc and New World (17 HK)'s Circular, guaranteeing all shareholders the dividend, no matter the Offer outcome.
The key risk now is NWD's independent shareholder vote. On balance, this should get up.


NWS (659 HK): Final Divvie Assured. NWD Vote Risk Remains

<ul>
<li>Back on the 26 June, Chow Tai Fook (CTFE) made a pre-conditional voluntary Offer for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/new-world-development" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:7037:1" rel="noopener">New World (17 HK)</a>'s 60.88%-held <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nws-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3350:1" rel="noopener">NWS (659 HK)</a> at HK$9.15/share, a 22.2% premium to undisturbed.</li>
<li>The Cheng-family-backed CTFE and connected parties held 45.24% of NWD, therefore the parent was effectively injecting ~US$2.75bn of cash into NWD for its NWS stake.</li>
<li>The pre-cons are now done, with a 13 October despatch date for the Composite Document. Technically, this could be wrapped up before NWS' final dividend ex-date. That's worth exploring further.</li>
</ul>


Back on the 26 June, Chow Tai Fook (CTFE) made a pre-conditional voluntary Offer for New World (17 HK)'s 60.88%-held NWS (659 HK) at HK$9.15/share, a 22.2% premium to undisturbed.
The Cheng-family-backed CTFE and connected parties held 45.24% of NWD, therefore the parent was effectively injecting ~US$2.75bn of cash into NWD for its NWS stake.
The pre-cons are now done, with a 13 October despatch date for the Composite Document. Technically, this could be wrapped up before NWS' final dividend ex-date. That's worth exploring further.


NWS (659 HK): Pre-Cons Done. Now, About That Final Divvie ...

IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

<ul>
<li>The pre-condition for the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nws-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3350:1" rel="noopener">Nws Holdings (659 HK)</a> voluntary general offer from the Cheng family is satisfied. The total offer (HK$9.15 + 2H dividend) is HK$9.46 per share.</li>
<li>The key condition is (majority vote) approval by independent NWD shareholders. NWD’s share price decline and dependency on NWS earnings/cash flow support a NO vote.</li>
<li>A reasonable offer which reduces NWD’s gearing, results in a special dividend and helps reduce the holding company discount supports the YES vote. We think that the YES vote prevails.</li>
</ul>


The pre-condition for the Nws Holdings (659 HK) voluntary general offer from the Cheng family is satisfied. The total offer (HK$9.15 + 2H dividend) is HK$9.46 per share.
The key condition is (majority vote) approval by independent NWD shareholders. NWD’s share price decline and dependency on NWS earnings/cash flow support a NO vote.
A reasonable offer which reduces NWD’s gearing, results in a special dividend and helps reduce the holding company discount supports the YES vote. We think that the YES vote prevails.


NWS Holding (659 HK): Pre-Condition Satisfied

NTT (Nippon Telegraph & Telephone) / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/monex-group-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14211:1" rel="noopener">Monex (8698 JP)</a> and Docomo announced an agreement. It is not clear ANY of this has to happen at prices favourable to minorities. But equally, it won't be egregiously bad.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/people-s-insurance-co-group-of-china-ltd-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:362:1" rel="noopener">People's Insurance (PICC) (1339 HK)</a>'s implied stub is at a lifetime low. The market is assigning HK$35.6bn less for its steady and profitable life/health insurance stub ops, year-to-date.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jmdc-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28673:1" rel="noopener">JMDC (4483 JP)</a> is a growth stock, growing organically. It is a rare enough thing. If you want to buy the back end, wait until it gets here.</li>
</ul>



Monex (8698 JP) and Docomo announced an agreement. It is not clear ANY of this has to happen at prices favourable to minorities. But equally, it won't be egregiously bad.

People's Insurance (PICC) (1339 HK)'s implied stub is at a lifetime low. The market is assigning HK$35.6bn less for its steady and profitable life/health insurance stub ops, year-to-date.

JMDC (4483 JP) is a growth stock, growing organically. It is a rare enough thing. If you want to buy the back end, wait until it gets here.


Last Week in Event SPACE: Monex/NTT, PICC/PICC P&C, Vertex

Hong Kong

New World Development Company Limited, through its subsidiaries, develops and invests in properties, provides contracting services, property management, and transportation services.  The Company also operates infrastructure business, telecommunication services, department stores, hotels and restaurants, and media and technology business.

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New World Development (17 HK)

(Mostly) Asia-Pac Weekly Risk Arb Wrap: Newcrest Mining, Haitong Int'l, Liontown, NWS, IMAX China

This insight provides a summary of gross/annualised spreads (on deals discussed on Smartkarma) across Asia-Pacific as at the last trading date, and...

David Blennerhassett

NWS (659 HK): Final Divvie Assured. NWD Vote Risk Remains

The NWD vote risk is non-negligible when looking at minority action at past AGM/EGM voting. This is trading at a gross spread of 4.3% inclusive of...

David Blennerhassett

NWS (659 HK): Pre-Cons Done. Now, About That Final Divvie ...

Accelerating the timetable such that it closes before the final ex-date would smack of a new low in stinginess. I don't see it. This is trading at...

David Blennerhassett

NWS Holding (659 HK): Pre-Condition Satisfied

The key condition is approval by independent NWD shareholders. There are credible arguments for both camps - we think that the YES vote prevails....

Arun George

Last Week in Event SPACE: Monex/NTT, PICC/PICC P&C, Vertex

The weekend is here! Pour yourself a coffee, grab a comfortable seat, and sift through a brief summary of insights on various events discussed...

David Blennerhassett

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