ASEAN Insight Provider, CrossASEAN Research

Angus Mackintosh

ASEAN Insight Provider

CrossASEAN Research

At CrossASEAN Research we strive to produce unbiased and differentiated on the ground insights on companies across South East Asia. Our Research is produced for the most part after face to face meetings and conversations with company management to dig deep into the long term vision and strategy of the companies we cover. We seek to deliver investable and actionable themes on sectors and markets across SE Asia, often in collaboration with other Insight Providers across the region, pooling the vast experience of the analysts within the Smartkarma Ecosystem. We also offer bespoke work and tailor made trips for our clients. 

Insights across South East Asia

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>Indonesia has been the recipient of significant investment flows for foreign investors with more of a "risk on" environment with a large portion flowing into Indonesian banks. </li>
<li>Indonesia stacks up from an investment perspective with a stable political environment, solid GDP growth of around 5% YoY, rising flows of FDI, and a more stable IDR.</li>
<li>Despite the JCI knocking on all-time highs, valuations continue to look attractive with prospects of a better 2H2024 and lower interest rates. Top picks: Banks, property, consumer, and selective elsewhere. </li>
</ul>


Indonesia has been the recipient of significant investment flows for foreign investors with more of a "risk on" environment with a large portion flowing into Indonesian banks. 
Indonesia stacks up from an investment perspective with a stable political environment, solid GDP growth of around 5% YoY, rising flows of FDI, and a more stable IDR.
Despite the JCI knocking on all-time highs, valuations continue to look attractive with prospects of a better 2H2024 and lower interest rates. Top picks: Banks, property, consumer, and selective elsewhere. 


Indonesia Strategy - Caught in a Perfect Updraft?

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Yesterday, Indonesia's second largest coal mining business <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/adaro-energy-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6061:1" rel="noopener">Adaro Energy (ADRO IJ)</a> announced a buyback. This follows another buyback which ended in December 2022.</li>
<li>The Sep21-Dec22 buyback bought back 1bn shares, but did not spend all the money allocated to the buyback. This new one might buy back a similar quantity.</li>
<li>Looking at Real World Float is the right frame of reference. And the stock was at a recent low vs a Peer Basket. </li>
</ul>


Yesterday, Indonesia's second largest coal mining business Adaro Energy (ADRO IJ) announced a buyback. This follows another buyback which ended in December 2022.
The Sep21-Dec22 buyback bought back 1bn shares, but did not spend all the money allocated to the buyback. This new one might buy back a similar quantity.
Looking at Real World Float is the right frame of reference. And the stock was at a recent low vs a Peer Basket. 


Adaro Energy (ADRO IJ) Buyback - A Decent Chunk of 1 Year ADV

David Blennerhassett

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jardine-cycle-carriage-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:347:1" rel="noopener">Jardine Cycle &amp; Carriage (JCNC SP)</a> is currently trading at a ~12% discount to NAV, just outside its narrowest post-Covid.</li>
<li>A key catalyst for the recent narrowing was JCNC's inclusion in the SIMSCI Index at the end of last month.</li>
<li>JCNC is expensive here - relative to historical values -  and from an implied stub perspective.</li>
</ul>



Jardine Cycle &amp; Carriage (JCNC SP) is currently trading at a ~12% discount to NAV, just outside its narrowest post-Covid.
A key catalyst for the recent narrowing was JCNC's inclusion in the SIMSCI Index at the end of last month.
JCNC is expensive here - relative to historical values -  and from an implied stub perspective.


<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/astra-international-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:46:1" rel="noopener">Astra International (ASII IJ)</a> is coming up cheap after <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/united-tractors-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:698:1" rel="noopener">United Tractors (UNTR IJ)</a> positively responded to its large share buyback announcement. Yet both companies are looking attractive here. </li>
<li>Preceding my comments on Astra and United Tractor are the current setup/unwind tables for Asia-Pacific Holdcos.</li>
<li>These relationships trade with a minimum liquidity of US$1mn, and a % market capitalisation &gt;20%.</li>
</ul>



Astra International (ASII IJ) is coming up cheap after United Tractors (UNTR IJ) positively responded to its large share buyback announcement. Yet both companies are looking attractive here. 
Preceding my comments on Astra and United Tractor are the current setup/unwind tables for Asia-Pacific Holdcos.
These relationships trade with a minimum liquidity of US$1mn, and a % market capitalisation &gt;20%.


StubWorld: Astra Trading Cheap. So Is United Tractor

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/astra-international-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:46:1" rel="noopener">Astra International (ASII IJ)</a> FY2021 results reflect a rapid recovery in its core auto business plus commodity-related businesses, with +96% YoY net profit growth stripping out <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bank-permata-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:728:1" rel="noopener">Bank Permata (BNLI IJ)</a>. </li>
<li>The auto and related finance businesses should continue to perform well in 2022, with government luxury tax stimulus measures in place plus commodity prices will support <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/united-tractors-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:698:1" rel="noopener">United Tractors'</a> performance.  </li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/astra-international-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:46:1" rel="noopener">Astra International (ASII IJ)</a> remains a top pick for the economic recovery in Indonesia plus the company continues to look for investment opportunities to redeploy funds raised from Permata sales.</li>
</ul>



Astra International (ASII IJ) FY2021 results reflect a rapid recovery in its core auto business plus commodity-related businesses, with +96% YoY net profit growth stripping out Bank Permata (BNLI IJ). 
The auto and related finance businesses should continue to perform well in 2022, with government luxury tax stimulus measures in place plus commodity prices will support United Tractors' performance.  

Astra International (ASII IJ) remains a top pick for the economic recovery in Indonesia plus the company continues to look for investment opportunities to redeploy funds raised from Permata sales.


Astra International (ASII IJ) - Rock Solid

Indonesia

PT United Tractors Tbk distributes and leases construction machinery including Komatsu, Nissan Diesel, Scania, Bomag, Valmet, and Tadano brands.  The Company also provides contract mining services, and trades and assembles heavy equipment.

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United Tractors (UNTR IJ)

Indonesia Strategy - Caught in a Perfect Updraft?

Despite the JCI knocking on all-time highs, valuations continue to look attractive with prospects of a better 2H2024 and lower interest rates. Top...

Angus Mackintosh

Adaro Energy (ADRO IJ) Buyback - A Decent Chunk of 1 Year ADV

Adaro Energy (ADRO IJ) just announced another buyback. This should have some decent impact, and the stock is a bit cheap to similar-sized peers.

Travis Lundy

JCNC Is Still Overstretched Vs. Astra

JCNC is expensive here - relative to historical values - and from an implied stub perspective. And the MSCI inclusion event has now passed. I'd...

David Blennerhassett

StubWorld: Astra Trading Cheap. So Is United Tractor

I'd be buying Astra International (ASII IJ) here. But I'd be buying more of United Tractor. I would not set up a long/short here.

David Blennerhassett

Astra International (ASII IJ) - Rock Solid

Astra International remains a top pick for the economic recovery in Indonesia plus the company continues to look for investment opportunities to...

Angus Mackintosh

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