Korea/Asia, Events, IPOs, Douglas Research Advisory

Douglas Kim

Korea/Asia, Events, IPOs

Douglas Research Advisory

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>We provide an updated NAV analysis of Samsung C&amp;T, discuss the reduced overhang post final Lee family inheritance tax payment, and also provide further details of its Corporate Value-Up announcement. </li>
<li>Given 2025 will be the last year of major inheritance tax payment for the Lee family, there is likely to be reduced overhang associated with inheritance tax issue next year.</li>
<li>Our NAV analysis of Samsung C&amp;T suggests NAV of 39.9 trillion won or NAV per share of 224,249 won which is 45% higher from current levels.</li>
</ul>


We provide an updated NAV analysis of Samsung C&amp;T, discuss the reduced overhang post final Lee family inheritance tax payment, and also provide further details of its Corporate Value-Up announcement. 
Given 2025 will be the last year of major inheritance tax payment for the Lee family, there is likely to be reduced overhang associated with inheritance tax issue next year.
Our NAV analysis of Samsung C&amp;T suggests NAV of 39.9 trillion won or NAV per share of 224,249 won which is 45% higher from current levels.


Samsung C&T: Corporate Value-Up + Reduced Overhang Post Final Lee Family Inheritance Tax in 2025

<ul>
<li>On 29 August, the three major POSCO Group companies including POSCO Holdings announced that they plan to provide detailed explanations of their Corporate Value Up plans in 4Q 2024. </li>
<li>In general, the companies that have provided more detailed plans for their Corporate Value Up plans have done better recently. </li>
<li>However, now there are cases such as the three main POSCO Group companies whose share prices are rising just by announcing that they will provide Corporate Value Up plans later.</li>
</ul>


On 29 August, the three major POSCO Group companies including POSCO Holdings announced that they plan to provide detailed explanations of their Corporate Value Up plans in 4Q 2024. 
In general, the companies that have provided more detailed plans for their Corporate Value Up plans have done better recently. 
However, now there are cases such as the three main POSCO Group companies whose share prices are rising just by announcing that they will provide Corporate Value Up plans later.


POSCO Group Corporate Value Pre-Announcements: Trading Angle

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech, Aequitas Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>We analyzed the changes in foreign holdings of KRX stocks as of Aug 30th which has an aggregated holding worth USD581.5bn.</li>
<li>We estimate that foreign flows to be outflows of USD1,386mln. We tabulate the league table for top changes by value for 1W/4W/1Y and top stocks held by foreign institutions.</li>
<li>We highlight foreign changes in Sk Hynix (000660 KS), Samsung Electronics (005930 KS).</li>
</ul>


We analyzed the changes in foreign holdings of KRX stocks as of Aug 30th which has an aggregated holding worth USD581.5bn.
We estimate that foreign flows to be outflows of USD1,386mln. We tabulate the league table for top changes by value for 1W/4W/1Y and top stocks held by foreign institutions.
We highlight foreign changes in Sk Hynix (000660 KS), Samsung Electronics (005930 KS).


KRX Foreign Holding Weekly (Aug 30th): Sk Hynix, Samsung Electronics

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

<ul>
<li>Foreign investors have continued buying <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kt-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1112:1" rel="noopener">KT Corp (030200 KS)</a> and the stock has outperformed <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sk-telecom-co-ltd-bbccd86c-474d-4a4d-946d-10e911a225a2" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:395:1" rel="noopener">SK Telecom (017670 KS)</a>, though not by a lot. </li>
<li>Foreign buying has pushed foreign room in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kt-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1112:1" rel="noopener">KT Corp (030200 KS)</a> below 3.75% and the stock could be deleted from a global index at the next rebalance.</li>
<li>There will be some interesting trading dynamics in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kt-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1112:1" rel="noopener">KT Corp (030200 KS)</a> over the next couple of months and there will be trading opportunities versus its peers.</li>
</ul>


Foreign investors have continued buying KT Corp (030200 KS) and the stock has outperformed SK Telecom (017670 KS), though not by a lot. 
Foreign buying has pushed foreign room in KT Corp (030200 KS) below 3.75% and the stock could be deleted from a global index at the next rebalance.
There will be some interesting trading dynamics in KT Corp (030200 KS) over the next couple of months and there will be trading opportunities versus its peers.


KT Corp (030200 KS): Foreign Room Drops Below Critical Level; Passive Selling to Come

Asset Allocation & Fund Positioning, Copley Fund Research

Steven Holden

Asset Allocation & Fund Positioning

Copley Fund Research

Copley Fund Research provide research and data on asset allocation among Global and Emerging Market equity funds.  The analysis details absolute and relative positioning across countries, sectors and industries together with highly granular data on single stock and single fund allocations.  The data is updated monthly with time series going back to January 2011.

Global Research - Analysis of 165 prominent Global equity funds, combined AUM $335bn
GEM Research - Analysis of 127 prominent global EM equity funds, combined AUM $250bn

Asset Allocation - Global and GEM Equity

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>South Korean Financials are experiencing a significant increase in fund ownership. Average fund weights are approaching record highs at 1.94%, with a record 52% positioned overweight.</li>
<li>At the fund level, a strong buy-side bias is evident, with 37 funds opening positions compared to just 3 closures over the last 6-months.</li>
<li>Strong ownership momentum in KB Financial, DB Insurance, Shinhan Financial, and SK Square have contributed to the sector-wide bullishness.</li>
</ul>


South Korean Financials are experiencing a significant increase in fund ownership. Average fund weights are approaching record highs at 1.94%, with a record 52% positioned overweight.
At the fund level, a strong buy-side bias is evident, with 37 funds opening positions compared to just 3 closures over the last 6-months.
Strong ownership momentum in KB Financial, DB Insurance, Shinhan Financial, and SK Square have contributed to the sector-wide bullishness.


South Korean Financials:  Conviction Move Higher in Positioning

South Korea

Shinhan Financial Group Co., Ltd., a holding company, provides a full range of consumer and commercial banking-related financial services.  The company's main businesses include banking, securities brokerage, trust banking, and assets management to individuals, businesses, and other financial institutions.

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Shinhan Financial (055550 KS)

Samsung C&T: Corporate Value-Up + Reduced Overhang Post Final Lee Family Inheritance Tax in 2025

We provide an updated NAV analysis of Samsung C&T, discuss the reduced overhang post final Lee family inheritance tax payment, and provide further...

Douglas Kim

POSCO Group Corporate Value Pre-Announcements: Trading Angle

There could be some interesting trading angles for POSCO Holdings, POSCO Future M, and POSCO International in the next several months, ahead of the...

Douglas Kim

KRX Foreign Holding Weekly (Aug 30th): Sk Hynix, Samsung Electronics

We analyzed KRX foreign holding data for the past week and highlighted foreign holding changes in Sk Hynix, Samsungelec.

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

KT Corp (030200 KS): Foreign Room Drops Below Critical Level; Passive Selling to Come

KT Corp's foreign room has dropped below 3.75% and that could result in deletion from a global index in November. Foreign buying has been...

Brian Freitas

South Korean Financials: Conviction Move Higher in Positioning

South Korean Financials are experiencing a significant increase in fund ownership. Average fund weights are approaching record highs at 1.94%,...

Steven Holden

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