Managing Director, Zero One, Zero One

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Managing Director, Zero One

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>We contacted Mediatek management in regards to the latest Arm restrictions for China; Mediatek doesn't expect to be impacted.</li>
<li>Mediatek's latest chipsets are competing well against Qualcomm, and its China competition has been stunted by U.S. restrictions in our view.</li>
<li>We have established our financial model for the company - We believe the shares should be held or accumulated on a value-basis.</li>
</ul>


We contacted Mediatek management in regards to the latest Arm restrictions for China; Mediatek doesn't expect to be impacted.
Mediatek's latest chipsets are competing well against Qualcomm, and its China competition has been stunted by U.S. restrictions in our view.
We have established our financial model for the company - We believe the shares should be held or accumulated on a value-basis.


Mediatek: We Contacted Management Re: Latest Arm Restrictions, Accumulate

Equity Analyst, LightStream Research

Shifara Samsudeen, ACMA, CGMA

Equity Analyst

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/xiaomi-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:24409:1" rel="noopener">Xiaomi Corp (1810 HK)</a>  share price has declined more than 50% over the last 12-months from HK$22.1 to HK$9.46.</li>
<li>In the meantime, the company’s earnings also have weakened with resurgence of Covid-19 in China alongside decline in demand for smartphones in Europe and other markets.</li>
<li>Xiaomi has entered into the premium smartphones segment which has negatively impacted the company’s margins due to aggressive expansion of offline stores.</li>
</ul>



Xiaomi Corp (1810 HK)  share price has declined more than 50% over the last 12-months from HK$22.1 to HK$9.46.
In the meantime, the company’s earnings also have weakened with resurgence of Covid-19 in China alongside decline in demand for smartphones in Europe and other markets.
Xiaomi has entered into the premium smartphones segment which has negatively impacted the company’s margins due to aggressive expansion of offline stores.


Xiaomi: Margins to Remain Under Pressure with Premiumisation and Investment in EV (Quantamental)

TMT & Consumer Independent Equity Research Analyst, Obex Capital Research

Aaron Gabin

TMT & Consumer Independent Equity Research Analyst

TMT & Consumer Independent Equity Research

Obex Capital Research

“Obex” is Latin for Barriers to Entry. Obex Capital Management’s investment philosophy is driven by an intense focus on which business model’s Barriers to Entry are able to withstand the ever increasing competitive disruption in the TMT and Consumer Sectors.

<ul>
<li>Warner Music hired YouTube's Chief Business Officer Robert Kyncl as its new CEO, an impressive executive well positioned to expand music monetization to newer frontiers.</li>
<li>The stock has roundtripped its $25 June 2020 IPO price after doubling.</li>
<li>There is a compelling "comping the comp" catalyst path for 2023, as streaming revenues reaccelerate, and Kyncl renegotiates static licensing deals with Peloton, Tiktok, etc.</li>
</ul>


Warner Music hired YouTube's Chief Business Officer Robert Kyncl as its new CEO, an impressive executive well positioned to expand music monetization to newer frontiers.
The stock has roundtripped its $25 June 2020 IPO price after doubling.
There is a compelling "comping the comp" catalyst path for 2023, as streaming revenues reaccelerate, and Kyncl renegotiates static licensing deals with Peloton, Tiktok, etc.


Long Idea: Warner Music’s New CEO Could Prove a Catalyst

<ul>
<li>Disney announced a new ad-based tier for Disney+ last week.</li>
<li>The decision to go this direction may imply market saturation, rising competitive intensity, or an inability to hit its subscriber targets organically.</li>
<li>Disney's streaming business is increasingly dominated by low value Hotstar+ subs</li>
</ul>


Disney announced a new ad-based tier for Disney+ last week.
The decision to go this direction may imply market saturation, rising competitive intensity, or an inability to hit its subscriber targets organically.
Disney's streaming business is increasingly dominated by low value Hotstar+ subs


Disney: Streaming Trapped Between a Rock and Hard Place

<ul>
<li>A blizzard of cost synergies we conservatively estimate at $500MM from lower distribution commissions, hosting costs, and cutting ATVI's highly paid C-Suite.</li>
<li>Multiple strategic benefits: Catalyzes Microsoft's XCloud streaming game service and Game Pass subscription offering....potentially offers greater leverage for app store negotiations with Apple and Google.</li>
<li>Accretive on valuation alone...MSFT is paying a 10% discount to ATVI's 23x average forward PE from last few years. MSFT's 11x forward P/S vs. ATVI's 5.5x revalues ATVI's revenues 2x.</li>
</ul>


A blizzard of cost synergies we conservatively estimate at $500MM from lower distribution commissions, hosting costs, and cutting ATVI's highly paid C-Suite.
Multiple strategic benefits: Catalyzes Microsoft's XCloud streaming game service and Game Pass subscription offering....potentially offers greater leverage for app store negotiations with Apple and Google.
Accretive on valuation alone...MSFT is paying a 10% discount to ATVI's 23x average forward PE from last few years. MSFT's 11x forward P/S vs. ATVI's 5.5x revalues ATVI's revenues 2x.


Microsoft’s Activision Acquisition Is a Stupendous Deal

United States

Apple Inc. designs, manufactures, and markets smartphones, personal computers, tablets, wearables and accessories, and sells a variety of related accessories. The Company also offers payment, digital content, cloud and advertising services. Apple Inc.'s customers are primarily in consumer, small & mid-sized business, education, enterprise and government markets worldwide.

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Apple (AAPL US)

Mediatek: We Contacted Management Re: Latest Arm Restrictions, Accumulate

We have established our financial model for the company - We believe the shares should be held or accumulated on a value-basis.

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Xiaomi: Margins to Remain Under Pressure with Premiumisation and Investment in EV (Quantamental)

Our quantamental reveals Xiaomi's smartphone GPM is strongly correlated with sales volume. We expect margins to remain stressed due to...

Shifara Samsudeen, ACMA, CGMA

Long Idea: Warner Music’s New CEO Could Prove a Catalyst

Warner Music's hiring of YouTube Chief Business Officer Robert Kyncl is an intriguing hire well positioned to increase Warner's monetization in...

Aaron Gabin

Disney: Streaming Trapped Between a Rock and Hard Place

Disney's recent announcement of an ad-supported tier being launched for Disney+ strikes us as a questionable strategic choice that indicates market...

Aaron Gabin

Microsoft’s Activision Acquisition Is a Stupendous Deal

Microsoft's acquisition of Activision is a homerun by any measure: strategically, financially, and on valuation. We expect the level of synergies...

Aaron Gabin

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