TMT & Consumer Independent Equity Research Analyst, Obex Capital Research

Aaron Gabin

TMT & Consumer Independent Equity Research Analyst

TMT & Consumer Independent Equity Research

Obex Capital Research

“Obex” is Latin for Barriers to Entry. Obex Capital Management’s investment philosophy is driven by an intense focus on which business model’s Barriers to Entry are able to withstand the ever increasing competitive disruption in the TMT and Consumer Sectors.

Equity Bottom-Up

Meta Platforms (Facebook) / Equity Bottom-Up

Large cap growth stocks have done nothing for 9 months. We think they represent great entry points into 1Q21 earnings. We prefer Facebook and Amazon.<div class="content-highlight">Obex’s fundamental research process is focused on secular change in the TMT and Consumer sectors. We seek to differentiate between fundamental business analysis and security analysis. Before deciding if a security’s pricing and positioning merit a long or short position, we analyze the four pillars of business fundamentals (Secular Factors, TAM, Competitive Advantage, Business Model) in order to determine if this is a “good” or “not so good” opportunity.  </div>

Large cap growth stocks have done nothing for 9 months. We think they represent great entry points into 1Q21 earnings. We prefer Facebook and Amazon.Obex’s fundamental research process is focused on secular change in the TMT and Consumer sectors. We seek to differentiate between fundamental business analysis and security analysis. Before deciding if a security’s pricing and positioning merit a long or short position, we analyze the four pillars of business fundamentals (Secular Factors, TAM, Competitive Advantage, Business Model) in order to determine if this is a “good” or “not so good” opportunity.  

Whatever Happened to FANG? Why Its Time to Reload on Large Cap Growth

Silver Point

Thomas J. Monaco

Independent Insight Provider

Silver Point is a boutique research firm that focuses on the broader financial services sector, with a particular focus on troubled institutions globally. 

Asia Ex Japan

*CBA’s Foray Into BNPL Adds Pressure: Tencent Holding’s (700.HK) [Tencent] Afterpay Touch (APT.AU) [Afterpay] FY 1H21 Buy Now Pay Later (BNPL) operating results have turned the corner and are close to break-even, by our calculation. The competition is noticing Afterpay’s performance.  Commonwealth Bank of Australia (CBA.AU) [CBA] has announced its own BNPL product beginning June 2021 which will pressure Afterpay in its home market; and*Tencent’s Midas Touch: Tencent continues to hit it out of the park with its Afterpay stake. In addition to its superb return on investment of nearly 390% over the past nine months since the stake announcement - -even after giving back some of its gains, this alliance with Australia’s premier financial technology Buy Now Pay Later (BNPL) company is paying dividends to Tencent in numerous other ways.

*CBA’s Foray Into BNPL Adds Pressure: Tencent Holding’s (700.HK) [Tencent] Afterpay Touch (APT.AU) [Afterpay] FY 1H21 Buy Now Pay Later (BNPL) operating results have turned the corner and are close to break-even, by our calculation. The competition is noticing Afterpay’s performance.  Commonwealth Bank of Australia (CBA.AU) [CBA] has announced its own BNPL product beginning June 2021 which will pressure Afterpay in its home market; and*Tencent’s Midas Touch: Tencent continues to hit it out of the park with its Afterpay stake. In addition to its superb return on investment of nearly 390% over the past nine months since the stake announcement - -even after giving back some of its gains, this alliance with Australia’s premier financial technology Buy Now Pay Later (BNPL) company is paying dividends to Tencent in numerous other ways. 

Tencent Holdings – Replication Is Flattery

Alpha-Centric ESG Research

Kyle Rudden

I often note that whilst Asia arrived at the ESG party fashionably late, it is making up for lost time, going from idle to full-throttle often by leapfrogging large patches of middle ground. One apropos example is the recent surge in Chief Sustainability Officer (CSO) hires by Asian companies.Rather than going a typical route – like having someone in Marketing do double-duty for a year or so to delay shelling out big bucks for a proper CSO – companies such as <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/singapore-exchange-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1047:1" rel="noopener">Singapore Exchange (SGX SP)</a> and  <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hsbc-holdings-plc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:516:1" rel="noopener">HSBC Holdings (0005 HK)</a> have recruited some seriously-qualified, executive-level CSOs.Big news, but I wouldn't have bothered with it a few years ago.Until recently, there wasn't much "Chief" or "Officer" to the CSO role. At best, companies hadn't yet figured out what to do with a CSO. At worst, they handed out CSO titles for optics; "greenwashing," as it were. CSOs were idealistic and motivated. Managements and Boards just didn't get it, yet.CSOs have since been excepted as equals into the "C-Suite," having proven their worth and earning a voice in all levels of strategic discourse. Exceptions do exist, the CSO role is varied and continues to evolve, and that "greenwashing" daemon still rears its ugly head every now and again.On the whole, however, CSOs are more influential than ever.From an ESG investing angle, the existence of a CSO has two specific implications: 1) it serves as a barometer of overall ESG commitment, and 2) it is associated with ESG outperformance, and lower ESG risk. For some issuers, it can even portend (portend, not predict) future ESG performance.Recent CSO activity in Asia inspired me to dig deeper. "Deeper" is relative, as the CSO pool in Asia (and elsewhere for that matter) is still very shallow. Nevertheless, this is a comprehensive analysis of the evolving CSO role in Asia – generally, and by cross-sections and topics such as:<ul>
<li>
Results: Correlative or causal, CSOs are linked to better ESG performance and lower risk.</li>
<li>
Country: Singapore and the Philippines have the most CSOs by company-count and size.  </li>
<li>
Sectors: Asian-company CSOs tend to concentrate in large-cap sectors and/or industries.</li>
<li>
Education: CSOs have more advanced degrees, from top universities, than do non-CSOs.</li>
<li>
Gender: Singapore and Thailand have the most female CSOs; Japan and India the least.</li>
</ul>

I often note that whilst Asia arrived at the ESG party fashionably late, it is making up for lost time, going from idle to full-throttle often by leapfrogging large patches of middle ground. One apropos example is the recent surge in Chief Sustainability Officer (CSO) hires by Asian companies.Rather than going a typical route – like having someone in Marketing do double-duty for a year or so to delay shelling out big bucks for a proper CSO – companies such as Singapore Exchange (SGX SP) and  HSBC Holdings (0005 HK) have recruited some seriously-qualified, executive-level CSOs.Big news, but I wouldn't have bothered with it a few years ago.Until recently, there wasn't much "Chief" or "Officer" to the CSO role. At best, companies hadn't yet figured out what to do with a CSO. At worst, they handed out CSO titles for optics; "greenwashing," as it were. CSOs were idealistic and motivated. Managements and Boards just didn't get it, yet.CSOs have since been excepted as equals into the "C-Suite," having proven their worth and earning a voice in all levels of strategic discourse. Exceptions do exist, the CSO role is varied and continues to evolve, and that "greenwashing" daemon still rears its ugly head every now and again.On the whole, however, CSOs are more influential than ever.From an ESG investing angle, the existence of a CSO has two specific implications: 1) it serves as a barometer of overall ESG commitment, and 2) it is associated with ESG outperformance, and lower ESG risk. For some issuers, it can even portend (portend, not predict) future ESG performance.Recent CSO activity in Asia inspired me to dig deeper. "Deeper" is relative, as the CSO pool in Asia (and elsewhere for that matter) is still very shallow. Nevertheless, this is a comprehensive analysis of the evolving CSO role in Asia – generally, and by cross-sections and topics such as:

Results: Correlative or causal, CSOs are linked to better ESG performance and lower risk.

Country: Singapore and the Philippines have the most CSOs by company-count and size.  

Sectors: Asian-company CSOs tend to concentrate in large-cap sectors and/or industries.

Education: CSOs have more advanced degrees, from top universities, than do non-CSOs.

Gender: Singapore and Thailand have the most female CSOs; Japan and India the least.


The Rise of the Chief Sustainability Officer in Asia

Founder/CEO of ROK Advisory, ROK Advisory LLC

Ken S. Kim

Founder/CEO of ROK Advisory

ROK Advisory LLC

ROK is an independent research advisory firm. We guide you to minimize the information gap between foreign and local investors in Northeast Asia with a focus in Korea, Taiwan and Japan.

Independent Research Advisory Firm

<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/qualcomm-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:969:1" rel="noopener">Qualcomm Inc (QCOM US)</a>' s reliance on a few suppliers has come to bite them.   With the Texas freeze and US sanctions, who gains from QCOM's current situation? It seems that all that the signs point to <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mediatek-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:772:1" rel="noopener">Mediatek Inc (2454 TT)</a>  being a winner in the situation

Qualcomm Inc (QCOM US)' s reliance on a few suppliers has come to bite them.   With the Texas freeze and US sanctions, who gains from QCOM's current situation? It seems that all that the signs point to Mediatek Inc (2454 TT)  being a winner in the situation

Korea/Asia, Events, IPOs, Douglas Research Advisory

Douglas Kim

Korea/Asia, Events, IPOs

Equity Capital Markets

<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/coupang" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28425:1" rel="noopener">Coupang (CPNG US)</a> announced today that it plans to complete its IPO at $32 to $34 per share, from the previous IPO price range of $27 to $30 per share.We continue to believe that there will be a "first day pop" for the Coupang IPO. We believe that the first day pop could be somewhere between the mid-to-high end of our valuation range which his from $35 to $47.3 per share.If the IPO is priced at $33 per share, we believe the first day pop could be as high as $80.4 billion in market cap or $47.3 per share. Despite the first day pop, we find it difficult for Coupang to maintain such frothy valuations ($80 billion or $47.3 per share levels) for an extended period of time so our base case 6-12 months remains $35 per share ($60 billion in market cap).

Coupang (CPNG US) announced today that it plans to complete its IPO at $32 to $34 per share, from the previous IPO price range of $27 to $30 per share.We continue to believe that there will be a "first day pop" for the Coupang IPO. We believe that the first day pop could be somewhere between the mid-to-high end of our valuation range which his from $35 to $47.3 per share.If the IPO is priced at $33 per share, we believe the first day pop could be as high as $80.4 billion in market cap or $47.3 per share. Despite the first day pop, we find it difficult for Coupang to maintain such frothy valuations ($80 billion or $47.3 per share levels) for an extended period of time so our base case 6-12 months remains $35 per share ($60 billion in market cap).

Coupang - Slightly Raises IPO Price Range & The "First Day Pop"

United States

Apple Inc. designs, manufactures, and markets smartphones, personal computers, tablets, wearables and accessories, and sells a variety of related accessories. The Company also offers payment, digital content, cloud and advertising services. Apple Inc.'s customers are primarily in consumer, small & mid-sized business, education, enterprise and government markets worldwide.

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Apple (AAPL US)

Whatever Happened to FANG? Why Its Time to Reload on Large Cap Growth

Macro tends to control the market in between earnings seasons, when fundamental performance matters less. As we approach 1Q21 earnings in a few...

Aaron Gabin

Tencent Holdings – Replication Is Flattery

TENCENT HOLDINGS: Tencent’s Afterpay BNPL performance is turning heads. Commonwealth Bank of Australia has announced its own BNPL product which...

Thomas J. Monaco

The Rise of the Chief Sustainability Officer in Asia

Chief Sustainability Officers can impact ESG performance and risk-adjusted returns. CSOs are becoming more common anong Asian companies, which are...

Kyle Rudden

Who Gains from Qcom Mistake? Mediatek

Who gains from Qualcomm's mistake? It seem the obvious is Mediatek for both better supply chain management as well as its in the best interest of...

Ken S. Kim

Coupang - Slightly Raises IPO Price Range & The "First Day Pop"

Coupang (CPNG US) announced today that it plans to complete its IPO at $32 to $34 per share, from the previous IPO price range of $27 to $30 per...

Douglas Kim

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