Telco/Internet specialist

Kirk Boodry

Redex Research

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>MIC data provides further support that regulatory pressure was successful in driving down industry prices with 40mn users on discount plans that are among the cheapest globally</li>
<li>That has led to ¥230-250bn in service revenue erosion for both FY21 and FY22e but evidence of a solid win for regulators reassures that further action isn't needed</li>
<li>Handset pricing is on the rise as 5G proliferates, which is good news for incumbents that can lock users in through instalment payment plans</li>
</ul>


MIC data provides further support that regulatory pressure was successful in driving down industry prices with 40mn users on discount plans that are among the cheapest globally
That has led to ¥230-250bn in service revenue erosion for both FY21 and FY22e but evidence of a solid win for regulators reassures that further action isn't needed
Handset pricing is on the rise as 5G proliferates, which is good news for incumbents that can lock users in through instalment payment plans


Japan Telecoms - Update from Regulators’ Competition Working Group

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mercari-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27149:1" rel="noopener">Mercari Inc (4385 JP)</a> will be added to the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tokyo-stock-exchange-tokyo-price-index-topix" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22910:1" rel="noopener">Tokyo Stock Exchange Tokyo Price Index Topix (TPX INDEX)</a> at the close on 28 July.</li>
<li>There are a lot of FFW changes, mainly reductions. This leads to large funding inflows on the large index stocks.</li>
<li>We estimate the inclusion of Mercari and the FFW changes will lead to a one-way turnover of 0.56% leading to a one-way trade of JPY 442.23bn (US$3.25bn).</li>
</ul>



Mercari Inc (4385 JP) will be added to the Tokyo Stock Exchange Tokyo Price Index Topix (TPX INDEX) at the close on 28 July.
There are a lot of FFW changes, mainly reductions. This leads to large funding inflows on the large index stocks.
We estimate the inclusion of Mercari and the FFW changes will lead to a one-way turnover of 0.56% leading to a one-way trade of JPY 442.23bn (US$3.25bn).


TOPIX July Rebalance: Mercari Inclusion, FFW Changes, US$6.5bn To Trade

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>KDDI's entire network was out over the weekend and whilst service has been restored, there are still sporadic complaints </li>
<li>There are near-term risks for higher user churn and lost Q2 revenue, but these are on the margin and downside should be manageable (i.e. no change on company guidance)</li>
<li>Looking past near-term weakness, KDDI remains an attractive defensive play </li>
</ul>


KDDI's entire network was out over the weekend and whilst service has been restored, there are still sporadic complaints 
There are near-term risks for higher user churn and lost Q2 revenue, but these are on the margin and downside should be manageable (i.e. no change on company guidance)
Looking past near-term weakness, KDDI remains an attractive defensive play 


KDDI (Buy) - Network Outage Is a Bad Look but Concerns Should Fade over Time

<ul>
<li>The regulator says that subscribers to discount mobile plans have exceeded 40mn, 15 months after mobile operators first launched them  in response to regulatory pressure</li>
<li>Net additons have stepped down as the rush of early adopters has passed and the data seems supportive of financial guidance for erosion that is modestly higher YoY</li>
<li>A press release touting the success of <em>ongoing</em> efforts to control mobile pricing comes at a good time</li>
</ul>


The regulator says that subscribers to discount mobile plans have exceeded 40mn, 15 months after mobile operators first launched them  in response to regulatory pressure
Net additons have stepped down as the rush of early adopters has passed and the data seems supportive of financial guidance for erosion that is modestly higher YoY
A press release touting the success of ongoing efforts to control mobile pricing comes at a good time


Japan Telecoms - New (Discount) Mobile Pricing Plan Users Exceed 40mn

<ul>
<li>With inflation exceeding 2% for only the third time in 22 years, hopes for employee wage hikes in Prime Minister Kishida's New Capitalism are likely to get more attention</li>
<li>But the telcos appear to be largely ahead of this already where we have visibility with wage increases of 1-2% already built into FY22 financial guidance </li>
<li>NTT's widespread telework offer is an example of how telcos have other tools to apply. We remain Overweight the Japan telecom sector with NTT and KDDI as top picks</li>
</ul>


With inflation exceeding 2% for only the third time in 22 years, hopes for employee wage hikes in Prime Minister Kishida's New Capitalism are likely to get more attention
But the telcos appear to be largely ahead of this already where we have visibility with wage increases of 1-2% already built into FY22 financial guidance 
NTT's widespread telework offer is an example of how telcos have other tools to apply. We remain Overweight the Japan telecom sector with NTT and KDDI as top picks


Japan Telecoms - FY22 Guidance Largely Insulated from Pressure to Raise Wages

Japan

KDDI CORPORATION provides mobile communication services and sells mobile devices.  The Company also is a broadband provider.

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KDDI Corp (9433 JP)

Japan Telecoms - Update from Regulators’ Competition Working Group

Further evidence that price reductions have met expectations as regulator working group prepares its final report on the competition. NTT remains...

Kirk Boodry

TOPIX July Rebalance: Mercari Inclusion, FFW Changes, US$6.5bn To Trade

Mercari will be added to the TPX at the close on 28 July. There are a lot of FFW changes that will result in one-way turnover of 0.56% leading to a...

Brian Freitas

KDDI (Buy) - Network Outage Is a Bad Look but Concerns Should Fade over Time

KDDI's network outage was large-scale but financial and operational impacts should be limited to Q2 and our overall outlook on the stock as an...

Kirk Boodry

Japan Telecoms - New (Discount) Mobile Pricing Plan Users Exceed 40mn

The regulator says there are users of new discount mobile pricing plans have exceeded 40mn. That tracks with financial guidance and is a positive...

Kirk Boodry

Japan Telecoms - FY22 Guidance Largely Insulated from Pressure to Raise Wages

With inflation rising above 2% for only the third time in 22 years, talk of the need for higher wages is likely to increase but telecom operators...

Kirk Boodry

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