Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>The virtuous cycle of shareholder return commences as <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-mobile-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27:1" rel="noopener">China Mobile (941 HK)</a> starts buying its H-shares.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/suzuki-motor-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:732:1" rel="noopener">Suzuki (7269 JP)</a>'s implied stub is currently around its all-time low, as is the simple ratio. <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/maruti-suzuki-india-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:733:1" rel="noopener">Maruti Suzuki (MSIL IN)</a> remains steadfast in its support for hybrid vehicles. That's a liability.</li>
<li>Quarz's intervention in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mapletree-north-asia-commercial-trust" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5127:1" rel="noopener">Mapletree North Asia Commercial (MAGIC SP)</a> is NOT surprising. They have some past experience complaining about Singaporean REIT mergers and other takeovers. But their analysis is surprising.</li>
</ul>


The virtuous cycle of shareholder return commences as China Mobile (941 HK) starts buying its H-shares.

Suzuki (7269 JP)'s implied stub is currently around its all-time low, as is the simple ratio. Maruti Suzuki (MSIL IN) remains steadfast in its support for hybrid vehicles. That's a liability.
Quarz's intervention in Mapletree North Asia Commercial (MAGIC SP) is NOT surprising. They have some past experience complaining about Singaporean REIT mergers and other takeovers. But their analysis is surprising.


Last Week in Event SPACE: China Mobile, Suzuki, Mapletree Merger, Bapcor, Toyota Industries/Motor

Japan/Asia Long-Short, LightStream Research

Mio Kato

Japan/Asia Long-Short

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Toshiba’s second IR day produced little of extra value as details on its new MTP did not add anything particularly new. </li>
<li>The company did a reasonable job of breaking down sources of growth and technological strengths but there were few immediate growth drivers. </li>
<li>As prospects for strong growth look to be shifting further out an SOTP analysis does not favour Toshiba.</li>
</ul>


Toshiba’s second IR day produced little of extra value as details on its new MTP did not add anything particularly new. 
The company did a reasonable job of breaking down sources of growth and technological strengths but there were few immediate growth drivers. 
As prospects for strong growth look to be shifting further out an SOTP analysis does not favour Toshiba.


Toshiba – Underwhelming MTP With Execution Risk

<ul>
<li>Another quarter, another Toshiba Medium Term Plan as activist investors keep sending management back to the drawing board until they come back with a privatisation. </li>
<li>Except there is still no sign of any significant appetite among buyers and no sign that they would be allowed to go through with it even if there was. </li>
<li>So Toshiba management shuffled a few deck chairs and the market yawned.</li>
</ul>


Another quarter, another Toshiba Medium Term Plan as activist investors keep sending management back to the drawing board until they come back with a privatisation. 
Except there is still no sign of any significant appetite among buyers and no sign that they would be allowed to go through with it even if there was. 
So Toshiba management shuffled a few deck chairs and the market yawned.


Toshiba – 16 Millionth New Plan Unlocks New Value! No Just Kidding It Didn’t

Travis Lundy

<ul>
<li>The TSE will move to a new cash equity market structure on 4 April 2022. There will be three new sections: TSE Prime, TSE Standard, and TSE Growth.</li>
<li>The Nikkei Index Team in July 2021 <a href="https://indexes.nikkei.co.jp/nkave/archives/news/20210705E_1.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">announced</a> a change to the Nikkei 225 Average Guidebook language which said constituents had to be members of TSE Prime going forward.  </li>
<li>At least one Nikkei 225 name and possibly two are headed for TSE Standard when the TSE makes its announcement on 11 January 2022. Suggested treatments are discussed.</li>
</ul>


The TSE will move to a new cash equity market structure on 4 April 2022. There will be three new sections: TSE Prime, TSE Standard, and TSE Growth.
The Nikkei Index Team in July 2021 announced a change to the Nikkei 225 Average Guidebook language which said constituents had to be members of TSE Prime going forward.  
At least one Nikkei 225 name and possibly two are headed for TSE Standard when the TSE makes its announcement on 11 January 2022. Suggested treatments are discussed.


Nikkei 225 Deletions/Additions in March(?) 2022 Due to TSE Market Structure Changes

<ul>
<li>After a brief respite in their never-ending drama over the holiday period Toshiba is again in the news as 3D reiterates their demands for a “review of all options”. </li>
<li>We have lost count of the number of reviews which haven’t resulted in a PE sale.</li>
<li>The question is exactly why 3D appears to be so aggressive even relative to other less than bashful activists.</li>
</ul>


After a brief respite in their never-ending drama over the holiday period Toshiba is again in the news as 3D reiterates their demands for a “review of all options”. 
We have lost count of the number of reviews which haven’t resulted in a PE sale.
The question is exactly why 3D appears to be so aggressive even relative to other less than bashful activists.


Japan

Toshiba Corporation manufactures and markets electrical and electronic products. The Company's products include digital products such as PCs and televisions, NAND flash memories, and system LSIs (large-scale integrated), as well as social infrastructures such as power generators, medical equipment, and home appliances.

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Toshiba Corp (6502 JP)

Last Week in Event SPACE: China Mobile, Suzuki, Mapletree Merger, Bapcor, Toyota Industries/Motor

The weekend is here! Pour yourself a coffee, grab a comfortable seat, and sift through a brief summary of insights on various events discussed...

David Blennerhassett

Toshiba – Underwhelming MTP With Execution Risk

Toshiba’s second IR day produced little of extra value and as prospects for strong growth look to be shifting further out an SOTP analysis does not...

Mio Kato

Toshiba – 16 Millionth New Plan Unlocks New Value! No Just Kidding It Didn’t

Another quarter, another Toshiba Medium Term Plan as activist investors keep sending management back to the drawing board until they come back with...

Mio Kato

Nikkei 225 Deletions/Additions in March(?) 2022 Due to TSE Market Structure Changes

There is likely to be one Nikkei 225 Change around the end of Q1 2022. There may be more. We will know more on 11 Jan 2022 how many deletions are...

Travis Lundy

Toshiba – The 3D Dilemma

After a brief respite Toshiba is again in the news as 3D reiterates their demands for a “review of all options” raising the question of exactly why...

Mio Kato

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