Japan/Asia Long-Short, LightStream Research

Mio Kato

Japan/Asia Long-Short

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>The days since Toshiba’s last briefing session have been eventful with METI expressing concern about foreign investor control and a split emerging in the board over director nominations. </li>
<li>These developments create significant risk of activist-friendly director candidates being vetoed in our view. </li>
<li>Toshiba stock has been trading in line with Hitachi’s strong performance of late despite being more expensive and thus risk has increased.</li>
</ul>


The days since Toshiba’s last briefing session have been eventful with METI expressing concern about foreign investor control and a split emerging in the board over director nominations. 
These developments create significant risk of activist-friendly director candidates being vetoed in our view. 
Toshiba stock has been trading in line with Hitachi’s strong performance of late despite being more expensive and thus risk has increased.


Toshiba – Surprise, Surprise, More Drama

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

<ul>
<li>Eight proposals seem a lot for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/toshiba-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:637:1" rel="noopener">Toshiba Corp (6502 JP)</a>. However, if you are a PE fund on the radar of private equity LP investors, you have to get involved.</li>
<li>The size of the trade is apparently 38 million shares. If you have been in the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/woodside-petroleum-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:177:1" rel="noopener">Woodside Petroleum (WPL AU)</a> / <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/santos-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:711:1" rel="noopener">Santos Ltd (STO AU)</a> trade, take the deal, tactically.</li>
<li>Perhaps a big pharma could make a splashy bid for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/genting-bhd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14210:1" rel="noopener">Genting Bhd (GENT MK)</a>'sTauRx, but we're not there yet.</li>
</ul>


Eight proposals seem a lot for Toshiba Corp (6502 JP). However, if you are a PE fund on the radar of private equity LP investors, you have to get involved.
The size of the trade is apparently 38 million shares. If you have been in the Woodside Petroleum (WPL AU) / Santos Ltd (STO AU) trade, take the deal, tactically.
Perhaps a big pharma could make a splashy bid for Genting Bhd (GENT MK)'sTauRx, but we're not there yet.


Last Week in Event SPACE: Toshiba, Woodside, Genting Berhad, SPH REIT, Virtus Health, Xiamen Port

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>The bear market rally that we were on watch for started last week, confirmed by the bullish reversals on the DAX, Hang Seng, MSCI China (MCHI-US), and China Internet (KWEB-US).</li>
<li>Is this just another bear market rally, or will indexes are able to make a higher low and start a new bull market? Either way, it's a start.</li>
<li>We highlight attractive stocks from a bottoms-up perspective, spanning several Sectors. Over half hail from Japan, where the TOPIX Small index is reversing its downtrend.</li>
</ul>


The bear market rally that we were on watch for started last week, confirmed by the bullish reversals on the DAX, Hang Seng, MSCI China (MCHI-US), and China Internet (KWEB-US).
Is this just another bear market rally, or will indexes are able to make a higher low and start a new bull market? Either way, it's a start.
We highlight attractive stocks from a bottoms-up perspective, spanning several Sectors. Over half hail from Japan, where the TOPIX Small index is reversing its downtrend.


Cautiously Optimistic Following Downtrend Reversals; Japan Continues to Lead; Bottoms-Up Stock Rec's

Travis Lundy

<ul>
<li>Since Toshiba reported lacklustre earnings and guidance, there has been a steady flow of articles in the press about the privatisation process going on behind the scenes.</li>
<li>On 25 March, Toshiba let it be known a privatisation process would start. On 31 March, Bain gave notice it would participate. Toshiba has been in talks since 21 April</li>
<li>First round bids were due 30 May, and 10 total submissions were made, with 8 privatisation proposals proffered. Now we wait...</li>
</ul>


Since Toshiba reported lacklustre earnings and guidance, there has been a steady flow of articles in the press about the privatisation process going on behind the scenes.
On 25 March, Toshiba let it be known a privatisation process would start. On 31 March, Bain gave notice it would participate. Toshiba has been in talks since 21 April
First round bids were due 30 May, and 10 total submissions were made, with 8 privatisation proposals proffered. Now we wait...


Toshiba (6502) - Now We Have the First Rounds Bids In, And We Wait, But It's Top of Range

<ul>
<li>Toshiba provided an update today on its management policy and the status of discussions with potential investors. </li>
<li>The management targets unveiled looked plausible but rather optimistic while the only real new information on the potential privatisation was that 8 bids had been submitted. </li>
<li>In the end the most interesting takeaway for us was that Toshiba Tec would play a key role in Toshiba’s data business.</li>
</ul>


Toshiba provided an update today on its management policy and the status of discussions with potential investors. 
The management targets unveiled looked plausible but rather optimistic while the only real new information on the potential privatisation was that 8 bids had been submitted. 
In the end the most interesting takeaway for us was that Toshiba Tec would play a key role in Toshiba’s data business.


Toshiba – Key Takeaway Is Toshiba Tec’s Attractiveness

Japan

Toshiba Corporation manufactures and markets electrical and electronic products. The Company's products include digital products such as PCs and televisions, NAND flash memories, and system LSIs (large-scale integrated), as well as social infrastructures such as power generators, medical equipment, and home appliances.

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Toshiba Corp (6502 JP)

Toshiba – Surprise, Surprise, More Drama

Developing and public fractures in Toshiba's board create significant risk of activist-friendly director candidates being vetoed in our view.

Mio Kato

Last Week in Event SPACE: Toshiba, Woodside, Genting Berhad, SPH REIT, Virtus Health, Xiamen Port

The weekend is here! Pour yourself a coffee, grab a comfortable seat, and sift through a brief summary of insights on various events discussed...

David Blennerhassett

Cautiously Optimistic Following Downtrend Reversals; Japan Continues to Lead; Bottoms-Up Stock Rec's

The bear market rally that we were on watch for started last week, confirmed by the bullish reversals on the DAX, Hang Seng, MSCI China $MCHI, and...

Vermilion Research

Toshiba (6502) - Now We Have the First Rounds Bids In, And We Wait, But It's Top of Range

Toshiba today announced a comprehensive deck with a Management Policy update, which is a very interesting read. They also announced they had...

Travis Lundy

Toshiba – Key Takeaway Is Toshiba Tec’s Attractiveness

Toshiba's presentation today offered little new aside from rather optimistic "LT" targets but we believe it highlighted the enormous strategic...

Mio Kato

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