Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Overnight, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/toshiba-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:637:1" rel="noopener">Toshiba Corp (6502 JP)</a> has released an <a href="https://www.global.toshiba/content/dam/toshiba/ww/ir/corporate/news/20220719_2.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">update</a> "Progress Report on Discussions with Potential Investors and Sponsors. Four advance to the second round, including both PE and strategic investors.  </li>
<li>Nikkei <a href="https://asia.nikkei.com/Spotlight/Toshiba-in-turmoil/Japan-Industrial-Partners-Bain-advance-in-bidding-for-Toshiba" target="_blank" rel="noopener">reported</a> those advancing were Bain, CVC, Brookfield, and JIP-JIC. Blackstone did not advance. Yesterday, Reuters reported that KKR had declined to bid, but might join another bid.</li>
<li>Now parties will start due diligence, and Toshiba will examine bids for "measures to enhance corporate value" and certainty of execution (given national security-sensitive issues, and funding). </li>
</ul>


Overnight, Toshiba Corp (6502 JP) has released an update "Progress Report on Discussions with Potential Investors and Sponsors. Four advance to the second round, including both PE and strategic investors.  
Nikkei reported those advancing were Bain, CVC, Brookfield, and JIP-JIC. Blackstone did not advance. Yesterday, Reuters reported that KKR had declined to bid, but might join another bid.
Now parties will start due diligence, and Toshiba will examine bids for "measures to enhance corporate value" and certainty of execution (given national security-sensitive issues, and funding). 


Toshiba (6502) Update - Shares Down Since Last Look, "News" Isn't Really. IRR Grid.

Japan/Asia Long-Short, LightStream Research

Mio Kato

Japan/Asia Long-Short

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

<ul>
<li>The Nikkei reported yesterday that Toshiba had winnowed the pool of potential partners down to four candidates. </li>
<li>All four names (Bain, CVC, Brookfield and Japan Industrial Partners/Japan Investment Corp) have been connected to Toshiba previously. </li>
<li>We wonder whether this pool of candidates points to a higher likelihood of a strategic partnership rather than a full buyout.</li>
</ul>


The Nikkei reported yesterday that Toshiba had winnowed the pool of potential partners down to four candidates. 
All four names (Bain, CVC, Brookfield and Japan Industrial Partners/Japan Investment Corp) have been connected to Toshiba previously. 
We wonder whether this pool of candidates points to a higher likelihood of a strategic partnership rather than a full buyout.


<ul>
<li>Yesterday I published <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/nikkei-225-sep-annual-review-predictions-3-in-3-out" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:73209" rel="noopener">Nikkei 225 Sep Annual Review Predictions - 3 In, 3 Out</a>. Assuming correct, and we move the last 6mos of data 6mos forward, March23 Rebal is below.</li>
<li>This too is 3 in, 3 out. But it is complicated. "Required" changes would move the sector balance further out of whack. </li>
<li>And while some of the trades are "interesting", the rebal is smaller and the bigger question is "What comes after that?"
</li>
</ul>


Yesterday I published Nikkei 225 Sep Annual Review Predictions - 3 In, 3 Out. Assuming correct, and we move the last 6mos of data 6mos forward, March23 Rebal is below.
This too is 3 in, 3 out. But it is complicated. "Required" changes would move the sector balance further out of whack. 
And while some of the trades are "interesting", the rebal is smaller and the bigger question is "What comes after that?"



Nikkei 225 March 2023 Rebal On The Follow - Predictions (3 In, 3 Out) & Problems

<ul>
<li>The Nikkei 225 Annual Review is in September based on end-July data. Jumping the gun, I propose 3 additions and 3 deletions with granular data and details offered per sector.</li>
<li>I see ¥600bn to buy and a funding trade of 99% of that. There are 15+ names with more than 1 day of ADV to sell (funding only).</li>
<li>The impact on Real World Float is non-negligible. One name in particular is deserving of attention. </li>
</ul>


The Nikkei 225 Annual Review is in September based on end-July data. Jumping the gun, I propose 3 additions and 3 deletions with granular data and details offered per sector.
I see ¥600bn to buy and a funding trade of 99% of that. There are 15+ names with more than 1 day of ADV to sell (funding only).
The impact on Real World Float is non-negligible. One name in particular is deserving of attention. 


Nikkei 225 Sep Annual Review Predictions - 3 In, 3 Out

David Blennerhassett

<ul>
<li>There are 44 - mostly firm, mostly Asia-Pac - transactions currently being discussed and analysed on Smartkarma. Inside is a timetable of upcoming key events for each deal.</li>
<li>Two new deals this week: <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kanemi-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:19614:1" rel="noopener">Kanemi Co Ltd (2669 JP)</a>'s tender Offer, and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/glory-star-new-media-group-holdings" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:33080" rel="noopener">Glory Star New Media Group Holdings (GSMG US)</a>'s underwhelming MBO.</li>
<li>Key updates took place for: <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/agl-energy-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:554:1" rel="noopener">AGL Energy Ltd (AGL AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/link-administration-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:970:1" rel="noopener">Link Administration (LNK AU)</a> &amp; <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/genting-singapore-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:439:1" rel="noopener">Genting Singapore (GENS SP)</a> </li>
</ul>


There are 44 - mostly firm, mostly Asia-Pac - transactions currently being discussed and analysed on Smartkarma. Inside is a timetable of upcoming key events for each deal.
Two new deals this week: Kanemi Co Ltd (2669 JP)'s tender Offer, and Glory Star New Media Group Holdings (GSMG US)'s underwhelming MBO.
Key updates took place for: AGL Energy Ltd (AGL AU), Link Administration (LNK AU) &amp; Genting Singapore (GENS SP) 


(Mostly) Asia-Pac Weekly Risk Arb Wrap: Kanemi, AGL, Link Admin, Genting Singapore, Glory Star Media

Japan

Toshiba Corporation manufactures and markets electrical and electronic products. The Company's products include digital products such as PCs and televisions, NAND flash memories, and system LSIs (large-scale integrated), as well as social infrastructures such as power generators, medical equipment, and home appliances.

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Toshiba Corp (6502 JP)

Toshiba (6502) Update - Shares Down Since Last Look, "News" Isn't Really. IRR Grid.

Toshiba (6502) is -8% vs Peer Basket after the late June pop on a "¥7,000 deal." Semi/memory peers weaker while industrials better. That lifts IRR...

Travis Lundy

Toshiba – The Bidders Emerge

We wonder whether the pool of partner candidates disclosed by Nikkei points to a higher likelihood of a strategic partnership rather than a full...

Mio Kato

Nikkei 225 March 2023 Rebal On The Follow - Predictions (3 In, 3 Out) & Problems

If we assume the Sep-22 Nikkei 225 Rebal predictions, then we look to Mar-23. 3 more in and out. Then it starts getting weird as Auto Inclusions...

Travis Lundy

Nikkei 225 Sep Annual Review Predictions - 3 In, 3 Out

The September Nikkei 225 Rebal announcement is ~ 6 weeks away. Assuming the current plans go through, I see three adds, three deletes. The adds are...

Travis Lundy

(Mostly) Asia-Pac Weekly Risk Arb Wrap: Kanemi, AGL, Link Admin, Genting Singapore, Glory Star Media

This insight provides a summary of gross/annualised spreads (on deals discussed on Smartkarma) across Asia-Pacific as at the last trading date, and...

David Blennerhassett

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