Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Based on an admittedly somewhat finger-in-the-air estimate of probability of privatisation,  shorting <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/toshiba-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:637:1" rel="noopener">Toshiba Corp (6502 JP)</a> here against its Peer Basket is probably not a good outcome.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/swire-pacific-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:23726:1" rel="noopener"></a><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/swire-pacific-ltd-cl-a" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10433:1" rel="noopener">Swire Pacific (19 HK)</a> has started buying back with 3.5x the average ADV impact on Bs vs As. That is likely to continue. </li>
<li>KKR's all cash A$88/share Offer for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ramsay-health-care-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:673:1" rel="noopener">Ramsay Health (RHC AU)</a> is off. The alternative Offer has a lower implied value, and has been unceremoniously rejected, despite Ramsay's horrible FY22 numbers.</li>
</ul>


Based on an admittedly somewhat finger-in-the-air estimate of probability of privatisation,  shorting Toshiba Corp (6502 JP) here against its Peer Basket is probably not a good outcome.

Swire Pacific (19 HK) has started buying back with 3.5x the average ADV impact on Bs vs As. That is likely to continue. 
KKR's all cash A$88/share Offer for Ramsay Health (RHC AU) is off. The alternative Offer has a lower implied value, and has been unceremoniously rejected, despite Ramsay's horrible FY22 numbers.


Last Week in Event SPACE: Toshiba, Swire Pacific, Ramsay Health, Pendal, Intouch

<ul>
<li>There are 49 - mostly firm, mostly Asia-Pac - transactions currently being discussed and analysed on Smartkarma. Inside is a timetable of upcoming key events for each deal.</li>
<li>Two new deals were discussed this week: <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ptb-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:19198:1" rel="noopener">PTB Group Ltd (PTB AU)</a>'s and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bright-scholar-education" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:24126:1" rel="noopener">Bright Scholar Education (BEDU US)</a>.</li>
<li>Key updates took place for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ramsay-health-care-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:673:1" rel="noopener">Ramsay Health Care (RHC AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/pendal-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15795:1" rel="noopener">Pendal Group (PDL AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nearmap-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5142:1" rel="noopener">Nearmap Ltd (NEA AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/xiamen-international-port-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5390:1" rel="noopener">Xiamen International Port H (3378 HK)</a>, and<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/maca-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11390:1" rel="noopener">MACA Ltd (MLD AU)</a>.</li>
</ul>


There are 49 - mostly firm, mostly Asia-Pac - transactions currently being discussed and analysed on Smartkarma. Inside is a timetable of upcoming key events for each deal.
Two new deals were discussed this week: PTB Group Ltd (PTB AU)'s and Bright Scholar Education (BEDU US).
Key updates took place for Ramsay Health Care (RHC AU), Pendal Group (PDL AU), Nearmap Ltd (NEA AU), Xiamen International Port H (3378 HK), andMACA Ltd (MLD AU).


(Mostly) Asia-Pac Weekly Risk Arb Wrap: Ramsay Health, Pendal, Nearmap, Xiamen Port, PTB Group, MACA

Travis Lundy

<ul>
<li>Since late June when I recommended to not be long Toshiba vs Peers, Toshiba has fallen 9.5% vs Peers (-6% on its own and an equal-weighted Peer Basket is +3.9%).</li>
<li>If one assumes the likelihood of a privatisation has not gone down, and the likely takeout price is the same, back-end adjusted, probability-adjusted IRRs are up 6-8%, to decent levels.</li>
<li>This changes my recommendation from Bearish to Probability-Adjusted Bullish, but it is nuanced, and it is still a range trade.</li>
</ul>


Since late June when I recommended to not be long Toshiba vs Peers, Toshiba has fallen 9.5% vs Peers (-6% on its own and an equal-weighted Peer Basket is +3.9%).
If one assumes the likelihood of a privatisation has not gone down, and the likely takeout price is the same, back-end adjusted, probability-adjusted IRRs are up 6-8%, to decent levels.
This changes my recommendation from Bearish to Probability-Adjusted Bullish, but it is nuanced, and it is still a range trade.


Toshiba (6502) Update - No Longer Worthwhile to Be Short Toshiba Vs Peers

<ul>
<li>There are 46 - mostly firm, mostly Asia-Pac - transactions currently being discussed and analysed on Smartkarma. Inside is a timetable of upcoming key events for each deal.</li>
<li>Two new deals were discussed this week: Thoma Bravo's tilt for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nearmap-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5142:1" rel="noopener">Nearmap Ltd (NEA AU)</a>; <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/net-marketing-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26092:1" rel="noopener">Net Marketing (6175 JP)</a>'s MBO. </li>
<li>Key updates took place for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/frasers-hospitality-trust" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:913:1" rel="noopener">Frasers Hospitality Trust (FHT SP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tassal-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16234:1" rel="noopener">Tassal (TGR AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/genex-power-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29079:1" rel="noopener">Genex Power Ltd (GNX AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/maca-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11390:1" rel="noopener">MACA Ltd (MLD AU)</a>, and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/giordano-international-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13899:1" rel="noopener">Giordano International (709 HK)</a>.</li>
</ul>


There are 46 - mostly firm, mostly Asia-Pac - transactions currently being discussed and analysed on Smartkarma. Inside is a timetable of upcoming key events for each deal.
Two new deals were discussed this week: Thoma Bravo's tilt for Nearmap Ltd (NEA AU); Net Marketing (6175 JP)'s MBO. 
Key updates took place for Frasers Hospitality Trust (FHT SP), Tassal (TGR AU), Genex Power Ltd (GNX AU), MACA Ltd (MLD AU), and Giordano International (709 HK).


(Mostly) Asia-Pac Weekly Risk Arb Wrap: Fraser Hospitality, Nearmap, Net Marketing, Tassal, Genex

Japan/Asia Long-Short, LightStream Research

Mio Kato

Japan/Asia Long-Short

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Toshiba reported 1Q results today missing at both the revenue and OP lines. </li>
<li>While revenue was barely above consensus the company generate a ¥4.8bn operating loss rather than the ¥22bn OP consensus was projecting. </li>
<li>1Q is seasonally weak so the loss itself would not be concerning except for how widespread deterioration was.</li>
</ul>


Toshiba reported 1Q results today missing at both the revenue and OP lines. 
While revenue was barely above consensus the company generate a ¥4.8bn operating loss rather than the ¥22bn OP consensus was projecting. 
1Q is seasonally weak so the loss itself would not be concerning except for how widespread deterioration was.


Japan

Toshiba Corporation manufactures and markets electrical and electronic products. The Company's products include digital products such as PCs and televisions, NAND flash memories, and system LSIs (large-scale integrated), as well as social infrastructures such as power generators, medical equipment, and home appliances.

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Toshiba Corp (6502 JP)

Last Week in Event SPACE: Toshiba, Swire Pacific, Ramsay Health, Pendal, Intouch

The weekend is here! Pour yourself a coffee, grab a comfortable seat, and sift through a brief summary of insights on various events discussed...

David Blennerhassett

(Mostly) Asia-Pac Weekly Risk Arb Wrap: Ramsay Health, Pendal, Nearmap, Xiamen Port, PTB Group, MACA

This insight provides a summary of gross/annualised spreads (on deals discussed on Smartkarma) across Asia-Pacific as at the last trading date, and...

David Blennerhassett

Toshiba (6502) Update - No Longer Worthwhile to Be Short Toshiba Vs Peers

The IRR to be obtained by buying Toshiba and expecting Probability X% of a Privatisation and (1-X%) of no deal has gone up sharply since end-June....

Travis Lundy

(Mostly) Asia-Pac Weekly Risk Arb Wrap: Fraser Hospitality, Nearmap, Net Marketing, Tassal, Genex

This insight provides a summary of gross/annualised spreads (on deals discussed on Smartkarma) across Asia-Pacific as at the last trading date, and...

David Blennerhassett

Toshiba – Little Good News

Toshiba reported 1Q results today missing at both the revenue and OP lines. 1Q is seasonally weak so the loss itself would not be concerning except...

Mio Kato

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