Japanese Turnaround Situations, Short-Ideas, Azabu Research

Michael Allen

Japanese Turnaround Situations, Short-Ideas

Azabu Research

Azabu Research is a publishing and consulting firm focused on distressed equities in the Japanese market. We specialize in turnaround strategies, corporate combinations, divestitures, and restructuring.

Publisher of the Tokyo Turnaround Letter, which conducts the most thorough research possible of publicly available information, including forensic tests for fraudulent overstatement of assets and understatement of liabilities, as well as rigorous market and industry analysis to assess the underlying strengths of the company’s products or services, the appropriateness of the company’s turnaround strategy, and the skill of its current management team. The average length of a report exceeds 25 pages of text and tables, excluding any disclosures or executive summaries.

We have more than 30 years of experience in applying this process to distressed equities in Japan. Additionally, subscribers have free access to detailed, yet easily navigated earnings models for the target company as well as the top five comparable companies, and unlimited access to the analyst for follow-up questions.

Azabu Research also conducts be-spoke research on a project basis, and provides consulting services to companies looking to restructure, divest, make acquisitions, go public, or improve investor sentiment toward their stock.

Independent Research and Consulting Firm

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Rapidly shifting technology could cause cable demand to plunge by 50% per unit of data center capacity as 800g becomes standard.</li>
<li>We don’t anticipate any negative surprises in the coming 1-2 quarters, but we think consensus is overestimating post-3/26 EBIT by at least 20%.</li>
<li>Even after a tech-led sell-off, at 25x EV/EBITDA, there is still no room for this kind of error. </li>
</ul>


Rapidly shifting technology could cause cable demand to plunge by 50% per unit of data center capacity as 800g becomes standard.
We don’t anticipate any negative surprises in the coming 1-2 quarters, but we think consensus is overestimating post-3/26 EBIT by at least 20%.
Even after a tech-led sell-off, at 25x EV/EBITDA, there is still no room for this kind of error. 


Smartkarma AI, Smartkarma

αSK

Smartkarma AI

Smartkarma

Smartkarma unites the fragmented investment industry, connecting institutional investors, independent research providers, and corporates within a single network.

Research Reinvented

<ul>
  <li>Fujikura is exceptionally well-positioned to capitalize on long-term secular growth trends in data centers, 5G network deployment, and automotive electrification, driven by its technological leadership in optical fibers and electronic components.</li>
  <li>The company has demonstrated a remarkable growth trajectory, with a 3-year net income CAGR of 32.58% and a dividend CAGR of 115.44%, signaling strong operational execution and a commitment to shareholder returns.</li>
  <li>While the current valuation appears elevated after a significant stock price run-up, strong forward-looking earnings growth, driven by robust demand from hyperscalers and strategic investments in capacity, provides a compelling investment case.</li>
</ul><p><em>This content is AI-generated and displayed for general informational purposes only. Please verify independently before use.</em></p>


  Fujikura is exceptionally well-positioned to capitalize on long-term secular growth trends in data centers, 5G network deployment, and automotive electrification, driven by its technological leadership in optical fibers and electronic components.
  The company has demonstrated a remarkable growth trajectory, with a 3-year net income CAGR of 32.58% and a dividend CAGR of 115.44%, signaling strong operational execution and a commitment to shareholder returns.
  While the current valuation appears elevated after a significant stock price run-up, strong forward-looking earnings growth, driven by robust demand from hyperscalers and strategic investments in capacity, provides a compelling investment case.
This content is AI-generated and displayed for general informational purposes only. Please verify independently before use.

Primer: Fujikura Ltd (5803 JP) - Sep 2025

Japan Specialist

Mark Chadwick

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Japanese equities ended lower in a volatile week, pressured by global tech headwinds despite a strong Friday rally: Nikkei: -2.6% | TPX -1.2% | JPY 156 (+¥1.03) | 10Y 2.02%</li>
<li>Japan Steel Works (-15%), Fujikura (-14%), and Yaskawa (-13%) shares fell sharply this week on AI sentiment cooling and valuation worries; long-term themes in nuclear/defence, and AI/robotics remain intact.</li>
<li>Next week, thinned holiday trading expected; Friday's Tokyo CPI, unemployment, and retail sales data to test BoJ's post-rate-hike confidence.</li>
</ul>


Japanese equities ended lower in a volatile week, pressured by global tech headwinds despite a strong Friday rally: Nikkei: -2.6% | TPX -1.2% | JPY 156 (+¥1.03) | 10Y 2.02%
Japan Steel Works (-15%), Fujikura (-14%), and Yaskawa (-13%) shares fell sharply this week on AI sentiment cooling and valuation worries; long-term themes in nuclear/defence, and AI/robotics remain intact.
Next week, thinned holiday trading expected; Friday's Tokyo CPI, unemployment, and retail sales data to test BoJ's post-rate-hike confidence.


Japan Strategy Weekly | BoJ Hikes to 0.75% Amid Tech Headwinds; Nikkei -2.6%

Japanese Equity Specialist, Ortus Advisors

Andrew Jackson

Japanese Equity Specialist

Ortus Advisors

<ul>
<li>Tech laggards bought in the US showing many in the market scrambling to catch the upside after the rapid snapback from last weeks drop.</li>
<li>Server related strength after Cisco numbers may see sentiment for Nidec finally improving with its cooling modules business emerging as an earnings driver.</li>
<li>Strong numbers for Coherent confirm the positive trends for its optical transceiver business which points to continued upside for AI data center plays</li>
</ul>


Tech laggards bought in the US showing many in the market scrambling to catch the upside after the rapid snapback from last weeks drop.
Server related strength after Cisco numbers may see sentiment for Nidec finally improving with its cooling modules business emerging as an earnings driver.
Strong numbers for Coherent confirm the positive trends for its optical transceiver business which points to continued upside for AI data center plays


Japan Morning Connection: Sanken Electric, Nidec, Asahi Intecc

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech, Aequitas Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>We analyzed the changes in margin trading positions of JPX stocks as of Dec 12th. The aggregated net margin trading position is USD19,648m.</li>
<li>We tabulate league tables for top/bottom net long/short of margin trading by value, net margin buy as multiple of ADT.</li>
<li>We highlight net margin buy/sell changes in Ci Medical, Toyoda Gosei, SoftBank, Toyota Motor, Lasertec, Skylark, Nintendo, Kawasaki Heavy Industries, Mitsubishi UFJ Financial, Tokyo Electron, Ci Medical, Toyoda Gosei.</li>
</ul>


We analyzed the changes in margin trading positions of JPX stocks as of Dec 12th. The aggregated net margin trading position is USD19,648m.
We tabulate league tables for top/bottom net long/short of margin trading by value, net margin buy as multiple of ADT.
We highlight net margin buy/sell changes in Ci Medical, Toyoda Gosei, SoftBank, Toyota Motor, Lasertec, Skylark, Nintendo, Kawasaki Heavy Industries, Mitsubishi UFJ Financial, Tokyo Electron, Ci Medical, Toyoda Gosei.


JPX Margin Trading Weekly (Dec 12th): Ci Medical, Toyoda Gosei, SoftBank, Toyota Motor, Lasertec

Japan

Fujikura Ltd. manufactures and sells wires and cables such as optical fiber cables and coaxial cables. The Company's products include optical transmission system, electronic materials, and telecommunication cables.

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Fujikura Ltd (5803 JP)

Fujikura (5803): The Math Doesn’t Work

Rapidly advancing technology may lead to a 50% drop in cable demand for data centers as 800g becomes the norm, potentially impacting EBIT...

Michael Allen

Primer: Fujikura Ltd (5803 JP) - Sep 2025

Fujikura is exceptionally well-positioned to capitalize on long-term secular growth trends in data centers, 5G network deployment, and...

αSK

Japan Strategy Weekly | BoJ Hikes to 0.75% Amid Tech Headwinds; Nikkei -2.6%

Japanese equities fell due to global tech headwinds, with Japan Steel Works, Fujikura, and Yaskawa shares dropping sharply. BoJ hiked rates

Mark Chadwick

Japan Morning Connection: Sanken Electric, Nidec, Asahi Intecc

US tech laggards are now catching up after a rapid rebound, server-related strength boosts Nidec's sentiment, and Coherent's strong numbers...

Andrew Jackson

JPX Margin Trading Weekly (Dec 12th): Ci Medical, Toyoda Gosei, SoftBank, Toyota Motor, Lasertec

We analyzed JPX margin trading positions report for the past week and highlighted Ci Medical (3540 JP), Toyoda Gosei (7282 JP), SoftBank (9984 JP),...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Fujikura (5803): The Math Doesn’t Work

​Rapidly advancing technology may lead to a 50% drop in cable demand for data centers as 800g becomes the norm, potentially impacting EBIT...

Michael Allen

Primer: Fujikura Ltd (5803 JP) - Sep 2025

Fujikura is exceptionally well-positioned to capitalize on long-term secular growth trends in data centers, 5G network deployment, and...

αSK

Japan Strategy Weekly | BoJ Hikes to 0.75% Amid Tech Headwinds; Nikkei -2.6%

​Japanese equities fell due to global tech headwinds, with Japan Steel Works, Fujikura, and Yaskawa shares dropping sharply. BoJ hiked rates

Mark Chadwick

Japan Morning Connection: Sanken Electric, Nidec, Asahi Intecc

​US tech laggards are now catching up after a rapid rebound, server-related strength boosts Nidec's sentiment, and Coherent's strong numbers...

Andrew Jackson

JPX Margin Trading Weekly (Dec 12th): Ci Medical, Toyoda Gosei, SoftBank, Toyota Motor, Lasertec

We analyzed JPX margin trading positions report for the past week and highlighted Ci Medical (3540 JP), Toyoda Gosei (7282 JP), SoftBank (9984 JP),...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Rapidly advancing technology may lead to a 50% drop in cable demand for data centers as 800g becomes the norm, potentially impacting EBIT...

Japanese equities fell due to global tech headwinds, with Japan Steel Works, Fujikura, and Yaskawa shares dropping sharply. BoJ hiked rates

US tech laggards are now catching up after a rapid rebound, server-related strength boosts Nidec's sentiment, and Coherent's strong numbers...