Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tata-motors-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:216:1" rel="noopener">Tata Motors Ltd (TTMT IN)</a> will eliminate its ADS program. This is another potentially juicy trade. </li>
<li>Canada's Brookfield, along with EIG look to take over <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/origin-energy-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:797:1" rel="noopener">Origin Energy (ORG AU)</a>, one of Australia's largest energy companies.</li>
<li>This <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/oz-minerals-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1138:1" rel="noopener">OZ Minerals Ltd (OZL AU)</a> trade is fundamentally a bit short gamma on copper. If copper takes another dive, then it may no longer be interesting to be long. </li>
</ul>



Tata Motors Ltd (TTMT IN) will eliminate its ADS program. This is another potentially juicy trade. 
Canada's Brookfield, along with EIG look to take over Origin Energy (ORG AU), one of Australia's largest energy companies.
This OZ Minerals Ltd (OZL AU) trade is fundamentally a bit short gamma on copper. If copper takes another dive, then it may no longer be interesting to be long. 


Last Week in Event SPACE: Tata Motors, Origin Energy, OZ Minerals, Toshiba

<ul>
<li>There are 48 - mostly firm, mostly Asia-Pac - transactions currently being discussed and analysed on Smartkarma. Inside is a timetable of upcoming key events for each deal</li>
<li>Four new deal were discussed on Smartkarma this week: <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/origin-energy-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:797:1" rel="noopener">Origin Energy (ORG AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/totoku-electric-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:2895:1" rel="noopener">Totoku Electric (5807 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/uzabase-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27798:1" rel="noopener">Uzabase Inc (3966 JP)</a>, and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/united-fiber-system-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20826:1" rel="noopener">Golden Energy &amp; Resources (GER SP)</a> </li>
<li>Key updates took place for: <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/perpetual-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:599:1" rel="noopener">Perpetual Ltd (PPT AU)</a>/<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/pendal-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15795:1" rel="noopener">Pendal Group (PDL AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jinke-smart-services-group-co" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29214:1" rel="noopener">Jinke Smart Services (9666 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/toshiba-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:637:1" rel="noopener">Toshiba Corp (6502 JP)</a>, and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/eagle-cement-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31217:1" rel="noopener">Eagle Cement Corp (EAGLE PM)</a>.</li>
</ul>


There are 48 - mostly firm, mostly Asia-Pac - transactions currently being discussed and analysed on Smartkarma. Inside is a timetable of upcoming key events for each deal
Four new deal were discussed on Smartkarma this week: Origin Energy (ORG AU), Totoku Electric (5807 JP), Uzabase Inc (3966 JP), and Golden Energy &amp; Resources (GER SP) 
Key updates took place for: Perpetual Ltd (PPT AU)/Pendal Group (PDL AU), Jinke Smart Services (9666 HK), Toshiba Corp (6502 JP), and Eagle Cement Corp (EAGLE PM).


(Mostly) Asia-Pac Weekly Risk Arb Wrap: Origin, Totoku Electric, Uzabase, Golden Energy, Perpetual

IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

<ul>
<li>A weekly summary of key developments across ECM and Event-Driven names tracked by us across Hong Kong, Australia, New Zealand, Singapore, Japan, Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand, Korea, India and Chinese ADRs.</li>
<li>ECM developments - <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/i-tail-corp-pcl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36428:1" rel="noopener">I-Tail (ITC TB)</a> is set to launch it's up to US$600 million SET IPO. </li>
<li>Event-Driven developments - <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/toshiba-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:637:1" rel="noopener">Toshiba Corp (6502 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/uzabase-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27798:1" rel="noopener">Uzabase Inc (3966 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/united-fiber-system-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20826:1" rel="noopener">Golden Energy &amp; Resources (GER SP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/perpetual-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:599:1" rel="noopener">Perpetual Ltd (PPT AU)</a>/<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/pendal-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15795:1" rel="noopener">Pendal Group (PDL AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/origin-energy-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:797:1" rel="noopener">Origin Energy (ORG AU)</a>.   </li>
</ul>


A weekly summary of key developments across ECM and Event-Driven names tracked by us across Hong Kong, Australia, New Zealand, Singapore, Japan, Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand, Korea, India and Chinese ADRs.
ECM developments - I-Tail (ITC TB) is set to launch it's up to US$600 million SET IPO. 
Event-Driven developments - Toshiba Corp (6502 JP), Uzabase Inc (3966 JP), Golden Energy &amp; Resources (GER SP), Perpetual Ltd (PPT AU)/Pendal Group (PDL AU), Origin Energy (ORG AU).   


Weekly Deals Digest (13 Nov) - Toshiba, Uzabase, Origin Energy, Perpetual, Golden Energy, I-Tail

Japan/Asia Long-Short, LightStream Research

Mio Kato

Japan/Asia Long-Short

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Toshiba’s 2Q results were not pretty with OP of just ¥7.5bn despite strong revenues of ¥855bn, weak orders and a downward revision to guidance as we predicted. </li>
<li>While we expected weakness, every downside risk we flagged came through and in greater force than we had predicted. </li>
<li>It is almost as if some divine force completely unrelated to management is hinting that you should go for the JIP bid if and when it comes through.</li>
</ul>


Toshiba’s 2Q results were not pretty with OP of just ¥7.5bn despite strong revenues of ¥855bn, weak orders and a downward revision to guidance as we predicted. 
While we expected weakness, every downside risk we flagged came through and in greater force than we had predicted. 
It is almost as if some divine force completely unrelated to management is hinting that you should go for the JIP bid if and when it comes through.


<ul>
<li>The Nikkei reported on Monday that JIP’s bid values Toshiba at roughly ¥2.2trn. </li>
<li>The stock has dropped to a level just below this valuation suggesting some anticipation of a Bain/JIC bid above that valuation. </li>
<li>While that is plausible, the cautiousness of JIP’s bid highlights the fundamental downside risk here in our view.</li>
</ul>


The Nikkei reported on Monday that JIP’s bid values Toshiba at roughly ¥2.2trn. 
The stock has dropped to a level just below this valuation suggesting some anticipation of a Bain/JIC bid above that valuation. 
While that is plausible, the cautiousness of JIP’s bid highlights the fundamental downside risk here in our view.


Toshiba – Realistic Valuation Disappoints Markets

Japan

Toshiba Corporation manufactures and markets electrical and electronic products. The Company's products include digital products such as PCs and televisions, NAND flash memories, and system LSIs (large-scale integrated), as well as social infrastructures such as power generators, medical equipment, and home appliances.

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Toshiba Corp (6502 JP)

Last Week in Event SPACE: Tata Motors, Origin Energy, OZ Minerals, Toshiba

The weekend is here! Pour yourself a coffee, grab a comfortable seat, and sift through a brief summary of insights on various events discussed...

David Blennerhassett

(Mostly) Asia-Pac Weekly Risk Arb Wrap: Origin, Totoku Electric, Uzabase, Golden Energy, Perpetual

This insight provides a summary of gross/annualised spreads (on deals discussed on Smartkarma) across Asia-Pacific as at the last trading date, and...

David Blennerhassett

Weekly Deals Digest (13 Nov) - Toshiba, Uzabase, Origin Energy, Perpetual, Golden Energy, I-Tail

Last week, notable developments occurred in Event-Driven (Toshiba, Uzabase, Origin Energy, Perpetual, Pendal, Genex, Jinke, Golden Energy,...

Arun George

Toshiba – Worse Than Even We Thought

Toshiba 2Q results were not pretty with significant profitability issues and a significant downgrade to the full year outlook.

Mio Kato

Toshiba – Realistic Valuation Disappoints Markets

JIP's bid for Toshiba was disappointing to markets but a realistic assessment of Toshiba's potential given current market conditions in our view.

Mio Kato

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