Japan Specialist

Mark Chadwick

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>OVERSEAS. SPX close near Feb lows as US 2Y hits 4.82%; Inflation -   Mkt sees higher for longer; AMAT disrupt ASML Monopoly? ;  GS gets thumbs down; TESLA DAY</li>
<li>JAPAN. NKY Futs flat vs Cash; USDJPY 136.2;  Toshiba Deal in Doubt; Bullish Calbee Investment Plan; Chinese Real Estate Mkt looking up: + Daikin/Toto; Broker Sell D/G: Makita, Nippon Steel</li>
<li>NUGGET:  Cyberagent - Loss Making Media business set for a turnaround. Looking discounted and the sell off since late 2021,  and given the outlook for its 3 businesses.</li>
</ul>


OVERSEAS. SPX close near Feb lows as US 2Y hits 4.82%; Inflation -   Mkt sees higher for longer; AMAT disrupt ASML Monopoly? ;  GS gets thumbs down; TESLA DAY
JAPAN. NKY Futs flat vs Cash; USDJPY 136.2;  Toshiba Deal in Doubt; Bullish Calbee Investment Plan; Chinese Real Estate Mkt looking up: + Daikin/Toto; Broker Sell D/G: Makita, Nippon Steel
NUGGET:  Cyberagent - Loss Making Media business set for a turnaround. Looking discounted and the sell off since late 2021,  and given the outlook for its 3 businesses.


Good Morning Japan |SPX: Top-Left, Bottom-Right Feb; US2YR@4.82 ; JP Baby Crisis; Nugget: CyberAgent

<ul>
<li>OVERSEAS.  SPX sees Red on Friday to  close -2.9%WoW as PCE Deflator heats up; Reality check for peak inflation camp; US 2Yr Yield highest since 2007</li>
<li>JAPAN. NKY Futs -0.4% vs Cash; USDJPY 136.5 on strong USD;  BOJ Gov designate Ueda to follow Kuroda path - for now; Jan Core infl 4.2%; Fujitec: 3 directors booted </li>
<li>DAILY NUGGET. Tale of two Markets: Bearish US Equities but Constructive Japan Equities.  When the data changes..</li>
</ul>


OVERSEAS.  SPX sees Red on Friday to  close -2.9%WoW as PCE Deflator heats up; Reality check for peak inflation camp; US 2Yr Yield highest since 2007
JAPAN. NKY Futs -0.4% vs Cash; USDJPY 136.5 on strong USD;  BOJ Gov designate Ueda to follow Kuroda path - for now; Jan Core infl 4.2%; Fujitec: 3 directors booted 
DAILY NUGGET. Tale of two Markets: Bearish US Equities but Constructive Japan Equities.  When the data changes..


Good Morning Japan |REALITY CHECK-Sticky Inflation! Bearish US/Bullish Japan; Win for Japan Activism

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>There are 42 - mostly firm, mostly Asia-Pac - transactions currently being discussed and analysed on Smartkarma. Inside is a timetable of upcoming key events for each deal.</li>
<li>Three new deals was discussed on Smartkarma this past week: <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/new-century-resources-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16474:1" rel="noopener">New Century Resources (NCZ AU)</a>off-market Offer;<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/aag-energy-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:501:1" rel="noopener">AAG Energy Holdings' (2686 HK)</a> 's Scheme; and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jiangnan-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:9828:1" rel="noopener">Jiangnan (1366 HK)</a>'s MBO.</li>
<li>Key updates took place for: <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nitro-software-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:30943:1" rel="noopener">Nitro Software Ltd (NTO AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/origin-energy-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:797:1" rel="noopener">Origin Energy (ORG AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/pushpay-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13737:1" rel="noopener">Pushpay Holdings (PPH NZ)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sembcorp-marine-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11:1" rel="noopener">Sembcorp Marine (SMM SP)</a>, and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/boustead-projects-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26785:1" rel="noopener">Boustead Projects (BOCJ SP)</a>.</li>
</ul>


There are 42 - mostly firm, mostly Asia-Pac - transactions currently being discussed and analysed on Smartkarma. Inside is a timetable of upcoming key events for each deal.
Three new deals was discussed on Smartkarma this past week: New Century Resources (NCZ AU)off-market Offer;AAG Energy Holdings' (2686 HK) 's Scheme; and Jiangnan (1366 HK)'s MBO.
Key updates took place for: Nitro Software Ltd (NTO AU), Origin Energy (ORG AU), Pushpay Holdings (PPH NZ), Sembcorp Marine (SMM SP), and Boustead Projects (BOCJ SP).


(Mostly) Asia-Pac Weekly Risk Arb Wrap: New Century Resource; AAG Energy; Jiangnan, Nitro, Pushpay

Chart based progressive global trading strategies, Chart Partners

Thomas Schroeder

Chart based progressive global trading strategies

Chart Partners

Chart Partners objective is to discover medium-term cycle turns and profit opportunities before they unfold, within structural trends while preserving capital with clear degrees of risk. We have real return ideas. 

Markets are dynamic and trading systems must reflect this. It is crucial to determine underlying correlations and lead-lag relationships within global markets and the impact on linked instruments. Our weekly Chartonics product gives you short-term trading strategies that can be applied within the medium and longer term macro trends that are mapped out in our strategy updates. 

Our methodology fuses global market variables and isolates drivers in trends. We specialize in FX, index trade in NY and Asia with a focus on Asian stocks. 

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>Toshiba (6502) exhibits clear bear momentum as the MACD turns down from key trend resistance. A sharp draw down will set up a buying opportunity.</li>
<li>Near sell resistance to short lies at 4,450. Bear projection come in at 4,185 but the MACD coil suggests an undershoot toward 4,100.</li>
<li>Macro bet is to buy near spiked lows for a rally to 4,500 and then the bigger 5,000 barrier. Need to see sell volumes deteriorate into weakness.</li>
</ul>


Toshiba (6502) exhibits clear bear momentum as the MACD turns down from key trend resistance. A sharp draw down will set up a buying opportunity.
Near sell resistance to short lies at 4,450. Bear projection come in at 4,185 but the MACD coil suggests an undershoot toward 4,100.
Macro bet is to buy near spiked lows for a rally to 4,500 and then the bigger 5,000 barrier. Need to see sell volumes deteriorate into weakness.


<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/s-m-entertainment-co" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3500:1" rel="noopener">S.M.Entertainment Co (041510 KS)</a> is trading through the partial offer terms as <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hybe-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28959:1" rel="noopener">HYBE (352820 KS)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kakao-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15002:1" rel="noopener">Kakao Corp (035720 KS)</a> jostle for control.</li>
<li>The political noise around the Adani Group situation will continue to be significant. Part of India believes this is a hatchet job against PM Modi and the BJP.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/star-entertainment-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:926:1" rel="noopener">Star Entertainment Group (SGR AU)</a> is an extraordinarily toxic company. But just how much negative news is already baked into the share price?</li>
</ul>



S.M.Entertainment Co (041510 KS) is trading through the partial offer terms as HYBE (352820 KS) and Kakao Corp (035720 KS) jostle for control.
The political noise around the Adani Group situation will continue to be significant. Part of India believes this is a hatchet job against PM Modi and the BJP.

Star Entertainment Group (SGR AU) is an extraordinarily toxic company. But just how much negative news is already baked into the share price?


Last Week in Event SPACE: S.M.Entertainment, Adani Group, Star Entertainment, Dai Nippon, Citizen

Japan

Toshiba Corporation manufactures and markets electrical and electronic products. The Company's products include digital products such as PCs and televisions, NAND flash memories, and system LSIs (large-scale integrated), as well as social infrastructures such as power generators, medical equipment, and home appliances.

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Toshiba Corp (6502 JP)

Good Morning Japan |SPX: Top-Left, Bottom-Right Feb; [email protected] ; JP Baby Crisis; Nugget: CyberAgent

SPX closes Feb on the lows; Baby Crisis in Japan. Toshiba Deal in Doubt; Bullish Calbee Investment Plan; Chinese Real Estate Mkt looking up: +...

Mark Chadwick

Good Morning Japan |REALITY CHECK-Sticky Inflation! Bearish US/Bullish Japan; Win for Japan Activism

US hardlanding narrative strengthening; Kishida approval up; BOJ Gov designate Ueda to follow Kuroda path - for now; Japan Jan Core inflation ...

Mark Chadwick

(Mostly) Asia-Pac Weekly Risk Arb Wrap: New Century Resource; AAG Energy; Jiangnan, Nitro, Pushpay

This insight provides a summary of gross/annualised spreads (on deals discussed on Smartkarma) across Asia-Pacific as at the last trading date, and...

David Blennerhassett

Toshiba Bear Targets

Toshiba (6502) exhibits clear bear momentum as the MACD turns down from key trend resistance. A sharp draw down will set up a buying opportunity....

Thomas Schroeder

Last Week in Event SPACE: S.M.Entertainment, Adani Group, Star Entertainment, Dai Nippon, Citizen

The weekend is here! Pour yourself a coffee, grab a comfortable seat, and sift through a brief summary of insights on various events discussed...

David Blennerhassett

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