Telco/Internet specialist

Kirk Boodry

Redex Research

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Google will invest $735mn (¥105bn) through 2023 on Japan infrastructure including its first local data center and additional subsea capacity</li>
<li>The Google CEO met with Prime Minister Kishida and the announcement scores political points but it also makes sense with a material JP business and the weak yen</li>
<li>Google is probably Japan's largest Internet advertising company with an estimated ¥685bn in FY21 sales</li>
</ul>


Google will invest $735mn (¥105bn) through 2023 on Japan infrastructure including its first local data center and additional subsea capacity
The Google CEO met with Prime Minister Kishida and the announcement scores political points but it also makes sense with a material JP business and the weak yen
Google is probably Japan's largest Internet advertising company with an estimated ¥685bn in FY21 sales


Google in Japan - Infrastructure Investments Highlight Japan Growth and Forex Shift

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>At the October rebalance, there are 970 stocks that will have a lower FFW while 114 stocks will have a higher FFW. 493 stocks will undergo a Phased Weight Reduction.</li>
<li>Estimated one-way turnover is 2.54% resulting in a one-way trade of ¥1.815tn. 500 stocks have over 4 days ADV to trade, 100 stocks have over 9 days ADV to trade.</li>
<li>Setting the threshold at +/-US$50m to trade, the stocks with inflows have outperformed the stocks with outflows by 6.5% over the last four months.</li>
</ul>


At the October rebalance, there are 970 stocks that will have a lower FFW while 114 stocks will have a higher FFW. 493 stocks will undergo a Phased Weight Reduction.
Estimated one-way turnover is 2.54% resulting in a one-way trade of ¥1.815tn. 500 stocks have over 4 days ADV to trade, 100 stocks have over 9 days ADV to trade.
Setting the threshold at +/-US$50m to trade, the stocks with inflows have outperformed the stocks with outflows by 6.5% over the last four months.


TOPIX October Rebalance: BIG One With ¥1.8tn a Side to Trade

IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jtower-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31042:1" rel="noopener">JTower (4485 JP)</a> has recommended a tender offer from <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/digitalbridge-group-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20231:1" rel="noopener">DigitalBridge Group (DBRG US)</a> at JPY3,600, a 161.8% premium to the undisturbed price of JPY1,375 (13 August). </li>
<li>Despite the hefty takeover premium, the offer is light (compared to historical trading ranges and the recent placement) and opportunistically timed (the share price has fallen 61% since 9 May). </li>
<li>Nevertheless, barring a spurt of activism, the offer should succeed as the required 40.7% minority acceptance rate is not onerous and should be comfortably met by Japanese cross-holders.    </li>
</ul>



JTower (4485 JP) has recommended a tender offer from DigitalBridge Group (DBRG US) at JPY3,600, a 161.8% premium to the undisturbed price of JPY1,375 (13 August). 
Despite the hefty takeover premium, the offer is light (compared to historical trading ranges and the recent placement) and opportunistically timed (the share price has fallen 61% since 9 May). 
Nevertheless, barring a spurt of activism, the offer should succeed as the required 40.7% minority acceptance rate is not onerous and should be comfortably met by Japanese cross-holders.    


JTOWER (4485 JP): DigitalBridge’s 162% Takeover Premium Offer Is Opportunistic

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/janaghan-jeyakumar-cfa" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="accounts:3173" rel="noopener">Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA</a> who does the predictions for this index got 10/10 of his high conviction names, 8/10 of his medium conviction, and 50% of low conviction ADDs.</li>
<li>This year, there are fewer caps but some big ones. Nearly ¥500bn of capping flow to sell. </li>
<li>I see just over $6.3bn in buying and selling to be done. A half dozen names with both high ADV impact to buy and decent size.</li>
</ul>



Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA who does the predictions for this index got 10/10 of his high conviction names, 8/10 of his medium conviction, and 50% of low conviction ADDs.
This year, there are fewer caps but some big ones. Nearly ¥500bn of capping flow to sell. 
I see just over $6.3bn in buying and selling to be done. A half dozen names with both high ADV impact to buy and decent size.


JPX-Nikkei 400 Rebal Aug 2024 - 44 IN, 41 OUT, ¥500bn of Capping, Just Under ¥1trn to Trade

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Telecom companies are traditionally "easy" to value. They have assets, debt, depreciation, earnings, cashflow. Lots of people like to use EV/EBITDA to measure.</li>
<li>In comparing Japan's telcos, I believe when <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/softbank-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27445:1" rel="noopener">Softbank Corp (9434 JP)</a> is in the mix, one has to use forward PERs. EV/EBITDA is too fraught with complications.</li>
<li>Softbank is currently at its most expensive multiple since listing on a Price to Forward Earnings basis, and relative to its major Peers. And KDDI has a big buyback now.</li>
</ul>


Telecom companies are traditionally "easy" to value. They have assets, debt, depreciation, earnings, cashflow. Lots of people like to use EV/EBITDA to measure.
In comparing Japan's telcos, I believe when Softbank Corp (9434 JP) is in the mix, one has to use forward PERs. EV/EBITDA is too fraught with complications.
Softbank is currently at its most expensive multiple since listing on a Price to Forward Earnings basis, and relative to its major Peers. And KDDI has a big buyback now.


Softbank Corp (9434) - Accounting for the Accounting Is Complicated Redux - So Be Bearish

Japan

Nippon Telegraph and Telephone Corporation provides a variety of telecommunication services, including telephone, telegraph, leased circuits, data communication, terminal equipment sales, and related services. The Company provides both local and long distance telephone services within Japan.

NTT (Nippon Telegraph & Telephone) (9432 JP)

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NTT (Nippon Telegraph & Telephone) (9432 JP)

Google in Japan - Infrastructure Investments Highlight Japan Growth and Forex Shift

Increased investment in Japan makes sense as its business is growing and the dollar has strengthened. In-country facilities should mean better...

Kirk Boodry

TOPIX October Rebalance: BIG One With ¥1.8tn a Side to Trade

Lower FFWs on 970 stocks and higher FFWs on 114 stocks will result in one-way turnover of 2.52% leading to a one-way trade of ¥1.8tn at the close...

Brian Freitas

JTOWER (4485 JP): DigitalBridge’s 162% Takeover Premium Offer Is Opportunistic

Despite the hefty takeover premium, the offer is light and opportunistically timed. Nevertheless, barring the emergence of activists, there seems...

Arun George

JPX-Nikkei 400 Rebal Aug 2024 - 44 IN, 41 OUT, ¥500bn of Capping, Just Under ¥1trn to Trade

The JPX Nikkei 400 annual index rebal is upon us. Janaghan's predictions were good at the higher conviction levels. This is OK size (nearly ¥1trln...

Travis Lundy

Softbank Corp (9434) - Accounting for the Accounting Is Complicated Redux - So Be Bearish

Accounting for all the adjustments needed in EV (and EBITDA) in constructing a fair value for Softbank Corp means one should use forward PER. In...

Travis Lundy

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