Junior Finance Analyst, Steno Research

Ulrik Simmelholt

Junior Finance Analyst

Macro and Geopolitical Research House

Steno Research

Steno Research is a new macro and geopolitical research house. We are based out of Copenhagen, Denmark, but have an international team and a strong network of sources and partners around the world. The team is lead by Andreas Steno, previous global head of strategy at Nordea Bank, and Mikkel Rosenvold, former chief consultant in the Danish Ministry of Finance.

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul><li>We start off this week’s 5 Things We Watch by having a look at the Ifo survey coming up this Friday in the midst of the Schwarze Null ruling.</li><li>This is followed by talking about US rates and Nvidia earnings and we then move on to talking about the USD while lastly finishing off with gasoline demand.</li><li>Chancellor Olaf Scholz’s government is challenged by the Constitutional Court’s ruling from last week on special fund financing outside the regular budget.</li></ul>

We start off this week’s 5 Things We Watch by having a look at the Ifo survey coming up this Friday in the midst of the Schwarze Null ruling.This is followed by talking about US rates and Nvidia earnings and we then move on to talking about the USD while lastly finishing off with gasoline demand.Chancellor Olaf Scholz’s government is challenged by the Constitutional Court’s ruling from last week on special fund financing outside the regular budget.

5 Things We Watch: IFO, US Rates, Earnings Revisions, USD & Gasoline

Head of Research and Global Chief Strategist, Steno Research

Andreas Steno

Head of Research and Global Chief Strategist

Macroeconomics

<ul><li>We start off this week’s 5 Things We Watch by having a look at the Ifo survey coming up this Friday in the midst of the Schwarze Null ruling.</li><li>This is followed by talking about US rates and Nvidia earnings and we then move on to talking about the USD while lastly finishing off with gasoline demand.</li><li>This week we are watching out for the following 5 topics within Global macro: IFO, US Rates, Earnings revisions, The USD, Gasoline.</li></ul>

We start off this week’s 5 Things We Watch by having a look at the Ifo survey coming up this Friday in the midst of the Schwarze Null ruling.This is followed by talking about US rates and Nvidia earnings and we then move on to talking about the USD while lastly finishing off with gasoline demand.This week we are watching out for the following 5 topics within Global macro: IFO, US Rates, Earnings revisions, The USD, Gasoline.

5 things we watch: IFO, US rates, Earnings revisions, USD & Gasoline

Asia and Global Semiconductor and Tech Research

Andrew Lu

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>SEMI reports Oct front/back end equipment billings decline of 14% and 18% y/y, respectively, which was improved from 18% and 24% y/y decline in September, implying early signs of recovery.</li>
<li>WSTS/SIA earlier reported September sales of US$44.89bn, up 1.9% m/m and down only 4% y/y (vs. 16% decline in June), suggesting semi sales y/y improvement and pass the cycle trough.</li>
<li>We are positive on SOX INDEX likely to break new high of over 4,000 in six months and expect PC/smartphone/training AI semi and DRAM semi/equipment vendors to outperform in short.</li>
</ul>


SEMI reports Oct front/back end equipment billings decline of 14% and 18% y/y, respectively, which was improved from 18% and 24% y/y decline in September, implying early signs of recovery.
WSTS/SIA earlier reported September sales of US$44.89bn, up 1.9% m/m and down only 4% y/y (vs. 16% decline in June), suggesting semi sales y/y improvement and pass the cycle trough.
We are positive on SOX INDEX likely to break new high of over 4,000 in six months and expect PC/smartphone/training AI semi and DRAM semi/equipment vendors to outperform in short.


What Oct US SEMI Equipment and Sep SIA/WSTS Global Sales Tell Us?

Taiwan Tech Focused Senior Analyst

Patrick Liao

Equity Bottom-Up

Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) - ADR / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>TSMC's N2 technology is currently undergoing verification for a 256Mb SRAM, and it will be implemented in Hsinchu and Kaohsiung, Taiwan.</li>
<li>The TSMC N3 technology capacity was 65kwpm in 3Q23, and the current version is N3B, which were adopted by Apple for the iPhone 15 this year.</li>
<li>Both N3E and N2 only have 20 layers EUV masks.</li>
</ul>


TSMC's N2 technology is currently undergoing verification for a 256Mb SRAM, and it will be implemented in Hsinchu and Kaohsiung, Taiwan.
The TSMC N3 technology capacity was 65kwpm in 3Q23, and the current version is N3B, which were adopted by Apple for the iPhone 15 this year.
Both N3E and N2 only have 20 layers EUV masks.


TSMC (2330.TT; TSM.US): N2 Technology Is Scheduled in 2025F.

<ul>
<li>Takeaways: 1. Semi equipment vendors beat 4Q23E; 2. China and DRAM customers stronger ; 3. Margin stable due to lack of depreciation; 4. Top four controls over 90% of shares;</li>
<li>More takeaways: 5. Semi equipment companies' share price performance should lag behind foundries, foundries should lag behind fabless customers; 6. China semi equipment vendors outperforming global peers on local replacement;</li>
<li>Estimating a flattish global semiconductor equipment sales growth for 2023 and 2024 but expecting a double digit y/y sales growth of 17% for 2025 and 10% for 2026. </li>
</ul>


Takeaways: 1. Semi equipment vendors beat 4Q23E; 2. China and DRAM customers stronger ; 3. Margin stable due to lack of depreciation; 4. Top four controls over 90% of shares;
More takeaways: 5. Semi equipment companies' share price performance should lag behind foundries, foundries should lag behind fabless customers; 6. China semi equipment vendors outperforming global peers on local replacement;
Estimating a flattish global semiconductor equipment sales growth for 2023 and 2024 but expecting a double digit y/y sales growth of 17% for 2025 and 10% for 2026. 


Takeaways After Global Semi Equipment Model Updated and Our View on 2024/2025

United States

NVIDIA Corporation designs, develops, and markets three dimensional (3D) graphics processors and related software.  The Company's products provide interactive 3D graphics to the mainstream personal computer market.

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NVIDIA Corp (NVDA US)

5 Things We Watch: IFO, US Rates, Earnings Revisions, USD & Gasoline

We start off this week’s 5 Things We Watch by having a look at the Ifo survey coming up this Friday in the midst of the Schwarze Null ruling. This...

Steno Research

5 things we watch: IFO, US rates, Earnings revisions, USD & Gasoline

We start off this week’s 5 Things We Watch by having a look at the Ifo survey coming up this Friday in the midst of the Schwarze Null ruling. This...

Steno Research

What Oct US SEMI Equipment and Sep SIA/WSTS Global Sales Tell Us?

What Oct US SEMI Equipment and Sep SIA/WSTS Global Sales Tell Us? Telling us early signs of semi equipment and global semi sales recovery and we...

Andrew Lu

TSMC (2330.TT; TSM.US): N2 Technology Is Scheduled in 2025F.

TSMC's N2 technology is currently undergoing verification for a 256Mb SRAM. TSMC N3 technology capacity was 65kwpm in 3Q23. The current version is...

Patrick Liao

Takeaways After Global Semi Equipment Model Updated and Our View on 2024/2025

Takeaways After Global Semi Equipment Model Updated and Our View on 2024/2025; We are providing six takeaways and sales growth estimates for 2024-2026

Andrew Lu

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