Independent Research, US Dominant Players, Investment Talk

Investment Talk

Independent Research, US Dominant Players

Investment Talk is for readers who wish to learn about companies that are potentially outside of their own circle of research, as well as those who are longing to become part of a community of like-minded investors and learn more about investment research. I would describe myself as a long-term investor who typically takes a 3Y to 5Y outlook, before reassessing once that period matures. I follow the adage that one should research, reach a conclusion, and then verify and continue to hold so long as the thesis remains intact. My own investing style is one that seeks to find dominant players within their respective market who have shown signs of monopoly or oligopolistic behaviour, unlikely to be disrupted, in tandem with discovering market disruptors who have a high likelihood of disrupting their respective market. Equally (and weighted accordingly) I seek to discover more nuanced, misunderstood, situations with a shorter time frame.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>I was today-years-old when I learned that Europe has its own version of the Magnificent 7; the basket of giga-cap US tech companies comprised of Alphabet, Amazon, Apple, Meta, Microsoft, Nvidia, and Tesla.</li><li>The GRANOLAS Dubbed the “Granolas” by Goldman Sachs in 2020, this basket was chosen because it echoed themes present amongst the Mag 7 (back then it was just “FAAMG”) .</li><li>Namely, they were market leaders in the STOXX 600 Europe Index, they had grown to become an increasingly larger share of the market, and their earnings had far outpaced the broader index.<div></div></li></ul>

I was today-years-old when I learned that Europe has its own version of the Magnificent 7; the basket of giga-cap US tech companies comprised of Alphabet, Amazon, Apple, Meta, Microsoft, Nvidia, and Tesla.The GRANOLAS Dubbed the “Granolas” by Goldman Sachs in 2020, this basket was chosen because it echoed themes present amongst the Mag 7 (back then it was just “FAAMG”) .Namely, they were market leaders in the STOXX 600 Europe Index, they had grown to become an increasingly larger share of the market, and their earnings had far outpaced the broader index.

Independent Investment Research & Investor, Maverick Equity Research

Maverick Equity Research

Independent Investment Research & Investor

Independent Investment Research & Investor: value, dividend and growth stocks. Risk management & hedging for an all weather portfolio.

<ul><li>Despite working in various headquarters in European banks, my work likely did not reach directly more than 500 people at any time (confidential/secretive/sensitive etc), hence a 10x bigger reach now is quite crazy and interesting for sure!</li><li>Let’s begin with 2 charts on US monetary policy and inflation that I was humbled to have them liked and retweeted on Twitter by the great Danielle DiMartino Booth (CEO &amp; Chief Strategist, QI Research LLC, Fmr Federal Reserve insider, Economist): M2 with a negative growth of -2.04% working to make inflation low / back to target</li><li>note how the -4.63% growth last year was a rate that meant it was the fastest pace of money supply compression since Jan 1933 ... let that sink in!</li></ul>

Despite working in various headquarters in European banks, my work likely did not reach directly more than 500 people at any time (confidential/secretive/sensitive etc), hence a 10x bigger reach now is quite crazy and interesting for sure!Let’s begin with 2 charts on US monetary policy and inflation that I was humbled to have them liked and retweeted on Twitter by the great Danielle DiMartino Booth (CEO &amp; Chief Strategist, QI Research LLC, Fmr Federal Reserve insider, Economist): M2 with a negative growth of -2.04% working to make inflation low / back to targetnote how the -4.63% growth last year was a rate that meant it was the fastest pace of money supply compression since Jan 1933 ... let that sink in!

Maverick Charts & Markets - February 2024 Edition #15

Taiwan Tech Focused Senior Analyst

Patrick Liao

Equity Bottom-Up

King Yuan Electronics Co, Ltd. / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>It was declined by 5% for 2023 verses 2022, which was not a surprise because the overall sentiment should be dim in 2023.</li>
<li>For the coming 1Q24F, it could be a bit downside by 5%, assumed as a normal seasonality.</li>
<li>AI demand remain the biggest driving force, and all eyes are on the CoWoS. </li>
</ul>


It was declined by 5% for 2023 verses 2022, which was not a surprise because the overall sentiment should be dim in 2023.
For the coming 1Q24F, it could be a bit downside by 5%, assumed as a normal seasonality.
AI demand remain the biggest driving force, and all eyes are on the CoWoS. 


KYEC (2449.TT): 2024F Could Be a Prosperous Year Although 4Q23 Saw a 5% Decline QoQ.

Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>TSMC expects the foundry, semiconductor, electronics, industrial technology, and global GDP to be $0.25 trillion, $1 trillion, $3 trillion, $12 trillion, and $145 trillion, respectively, in 2030F</li>
<li>Transistor technology is constantly evolving, and FinFET architecture will be followed by Nanosheet and others.</li>
<li>In the transition, the automotive market belongs to IDM companies, but the utility of ADAS (Advanced Driver Assistance Systems) could fall under Foundry territory.  </li>
</ul>


TSMC expects the foundry, semiconductor, electronics, industrial technology, and global GDP to be $0.25 trillion, $1 trillion, $3 trillion, $12 trillion, and $145 trillion, respectively, in 2030F
Transistor technology is constantly evolving, and FinFET architecture will be followed by Nanosheet and others.
In the transition, the automotive market belongs to IDM companies, but the utility of ADAS (Advanced Driver Assistance Systems) could fall under Foundry territory.  


TSMC (2330.TT; TSM.US): Foundry Market Forecast in 2030F; TSMC Had Developed The 2nm Nanosheet.

Articles from Caixin Global, Caixin Global

Caixin Global

Articles from Caixin Global

Caixin is a media group dedicated to providing financial and business news through periodicals, online content, mobile apps, conferences, books and TV/video programs. Caixin aims to blaze a trail that helps traditional media prosper in the new media age through integrated multimedia platforms.

News from Caixin

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul><li>China’s mutual funds produced a mixed bag of performance last year. Publicly offered equity funds endured a second straight year of losses, grappling with a prolonged stock market rout. Bond funds, on the other hand, had a comparatively stellar year.</li><li>The uptick in bond fund flows fueled a shift in China’s asset management landscape, with mutual funds emerging as the most preferred asset management avenue, outstripping banking wealth management for the first time.</li><li>This shift reflects investors’ concerted efforts to navigate prevailing financial market volatility and mitigate risk in the country’s stock market, which has seen a protracted rout continue into this year.</li></ul>

China’s mutual funds produced a mixed bag of performance last year. Publicly offered equity funds endured a second straight year of losses, grappling with a prolonged stock market rout. Bond funds, on the other hand, had a comparatively stellar year.The uptick in bond fund flows fueled a shift in China’s asset management landscape, with mutual funds emerging as the most preferred asset management avenue, outstripping banking wealth management for the first time.This shift reflects investors’ concerted efforts to navigate prevailing financial market volatility and mitigate risk in the country’s stock market, which has seen a protracted rout continue into this year.

China’s Bond Funds Outshine Equity Peers Amid Stocks Slump 

United States

NVIDIA Corporation designs, develops, and markets three dimensional (3D) graphics processors and related software.  The Company's products provide interactive 3D graphics to the mainstream personal computer market.

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NVIDIA Corp (NVDA US)

Europe's Magnificent Eleven

The GRANOLAS Dubbed the “Granolas” by Goldman Sachs in 2020, this basket was chosen because it echoed themes present amongst the Mag 7 (back then...

Investment Talk

Maverick Charts & Markets - February 2024 Edition #15

note how the -4.63% growth last year was a rate that meant it was the fastest pace of money supply compression since Jan 1933 ... let that sink in!

Maverick Equity Research

KYEC (2449.TT): 2024F Could Be a Prosperous Year Although 4Q23 Saw a 5% Decline QoQ.

Despite a 5% decline in 2023, the outlook remains dim due to normal seasonality in 1Q24F. AI demand continues to drive the industry, with focus on...

Patrick Liao

TSMC (2330.TT; TSM.US): Foundry Market Forecast in 2030F; TSMC Had Developed The 2nm Nanosheet.

TSMC predicts significant growth in various industries by 2030F, with evolving transistor technology and potential shifts in market ownership for...

Patrick Liao

China’s Bond Funds Outshine Equity Peers Amid Stocks Slump

China’s mutual funds produced a mixed bag of performance last year. Publicly offered equity funds endured a second straight year of losses,...

Caixin Global

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Europe's Magnificent Eleven

The GRANOLAS Dubbed the “Granolas” by Goldman Sachs in 2020, this basket was chosen because it echoed themes present amongst the Mag 7 (back then...

Investment Talk

Maverick Charts & Markets - February 2024 Edition #15

note how the -4.63% growth last year was a rate that meant it was the fastest pace of money supply compression since Jan 1933 ... let that sink in!

Maverick Equity Research

KYEC (2449.TT): 2024F Could Be a Prosperous Year Although 4Q23 Saw a 5% Decline QoQ.

​Despite a 5% decline in 2023, the outlook remains dim due to normal seasonality in 1Q24F. AI demand continues to drive the industry, with focus on...

Patrick Liao

TSMC (2330.TT; TSM.US): Foundry Market Forecast in 2030F; TSMC Had Developed The 2nm Nanosheet.

​TSMC predicts significant growth in various industries by 2030F, with evolving transistor technology and potential shifts in market ownership for...

Patrick Liao

China’s Bond Funds Outshine Equity Peers Amid Stocks Slump

China’s mutual funds produced a mixed bag of performance last year. Publicly offered equity funds endured a second straight year of losses,...

Caixin Global

Despite a 5% decline in 2023, the outlook remains dim due to normal seasonality in 1Q24F. AI demand continues to drive the industry, with focus on...

TSMC predicts significant growth in various industries by 2030F, with evolving transistor technology and potential shifts in market ownership for...