Asia biased macro & technical analysis, Untying The Gordian Knot

Untying The Gordian Knot

Asia biased macro & technical analysis

A differentiated process with a primary focus on Asia. Technical Analysis as core and Macro drivers that could bring the view to fruition & changes that could make the idea fall apart. The objective is to be the best in class, hence corner shop.

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul><li>Throughout 2024, we’ve witnessed tight trading ranges across various markets: oil, FX, and Credit spreads.</li><li>Notably, Semiconductors (light blue), Gold (depicted in blue), High-Yield OAS (in red), and Bitcoin (represented in black) exhibit remarkably similar chart patterns.</li><li>In essence, these assets no longer offer diversification benefits; they have effectively become indistinguishable trades.</li></ul>

Throughout 2024, we’ve witnessed tight trading ranges across various markets: oil, FX, and Credit spreads.Notably, Semiconductors (light blue), Gold (depicted in blue), High-Yield OAS (in red), and Bitcoin (represented in black) exhibit remarkably similar chart patterns.In essence, these assets no longer offer diversification benefits; they have effectively become indistinguishable trades.

Independent Research, US Dominant Players, Investment Talk

Investment Talk

Independent Research, US Dominant Players

Investment Talk is for readers who wish to learn about companies that are potentially outside of their own circle of research, as well as those who are longing to become part of a community of like-minded investors and learn more about investment research. I would describe myself as a long-term investor who typically takes a 3Y to 5Y outlook, before reassessing once that period matures. I follow the adage that one should research, reach a conclusion, and then verify and continue to hold so long as the thesis remains intact. My own investing style is one that seeks to find dominant players within their respective market who have shown signs of monopoly or oligopolistic behaviour, unlikely to be disrupted, in tandem with discovering market disruptors who have a high likelihood of disrupting their respective market. Equally (and weighted accordingly) I seek to discover more nuanced, misunderstood, situations with a shorter time frame.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>I was today-years-old when I learned that Europe has its own version of the Magnificent 7; the basket of giga-cap US tech companies comprised of Alphabet, Amazon, Apple, Meta, Microsoft, Nvidia, and Tesla.</li><li>The GRANOLAS Dubbed the “Granolas” by Goldman Sachs in 2020, this basket was chosen because it echoed themes present amongst the Mag 7 (back then it was just “FAAMG”) .</li><li>Namely, they were market leaders in the STOXX 600 Europe Index, they had grown to become an increasingly larger share of the market, and their earnings had far outpaced the broader index.<div></div></li></ul>

I was today-years-old when I learned that Europe has its own version of the Magnificent 7; the basket of giga-cap US tech companies comprised of Alphabet, Amazon, Apple, Meta, Microsoft, Nvidia, and Tesla.The GRANOLAS Dubbed the “Granolas” by Goldman Sachs in 2020, this basket was chosen because it echoed themes present amongst the Mag 7 (back then it was just “FAAMG”) .Namely, they were market leaders in the STOXX 600 Europe Index, they had grown to become an increasingly larger share of the market, and their earnings had far outpaced the broader index.

Independent Investment Research & Investor, Maverick Equity Research

Maverick Equity Research

Independent Investment Research & Investor

Independent Investment Research & Investor: value, dividend and growth stocks. Risk management & hedging for an all weather portfolio.

<ul><li>Despite working in various headquarters in European banks, my work likely did not reach directly more than 500 people at any time (confidential/secretive/sensitive etc), hence a 10x bigger reach now is quite crazy and interesting for sure!</li><li>Let’s begin with 2 charts on US monetary policy and inflation that I was humbled to have them liked and retweeted on Twitter by the great Danielle DiMartino Booth (CEO &amp; Chief Strategist, QI Research LLC, Fmr Federal Reserve insider, Economist): M2 with a negative growth of -2.04% working to make inflation low / back to target</li><li>note how the -4.63% growth last year was a rate that meant it was the fastest pace of money supply compression since Jan 1933 ... let that sink in!</li></ul>

Despite working in various headquarters in European banks, my work likely did not reach directly more than 500 people at any time (confidential/secretive/sensitive etc), hence a 10x bigger reach now is quite crazy and interesting for sure!Let’s begin with 2 charts on US monetary policy and inflation that I was humbled to have them liked and retweeted on Twitter by the great Danielle DiMartino Booth (CEO &amp; Chief Strategist, QI Research LLC, Fmr Federal Reserve insider, Economist): M2 with a negative growth of -2.04% working to make inflation low / back to targetnote how the -4.63% growth last year was a rate that meant it was the fastest pace of money supply compression since Jan 1933 ... let that sink in!

Maverick Charts & Markets - February 2024 Edition #15

Articles from Caixin Global, Caixin Global

Caixin Global

Articles from Caixin Global

Caixin is a media group dedicated to providing financial and business news through periodicals, online content, mobile apps, conferences, books and TV/video programs. Caixin aims to blaze a trail that helps traditional media prosper in the new media age through integrated multimedia platforms.

News from Caixin

<ul><li>China’s mutual funds produced a mixed bag of performance last year. Publicly offered equity funds endured a second straight year of losses, grappling with a prolonged stock market rout. Bond funds, on the other hand, had a comparatively stellar year.</li><li>The uptick in bond fund flows fueled a shift in China’s asset management landscape, with mutual funds emerging as the most preferred asset management avenue, outstripping banking wealth management for the first time.</li><li>This shift reflects investors’ concerted efforts to navigate prevailing financial market volatility and mitigate risk in the country’s stock market, which has seen a protracted rout continue into this year.</li></ul>

China’s mutual funds produced a mixed bag of performance last year. Publicly offered equity funds endured a second straight year of losses, grappling with a prolonged stock market rout. Bond funds, on the other hand, had a comparatively stellar year.The uptick in bond fund flows fueled a shift in China’s asset management landscape, with mutual funds emerging as the most preferred asset management avenue, outstripping banking wealth management for the first time.This shift reflects investors’ concerted efforts to navigate prevailing financial market volatility and mitigate risk in the country’s stock market, which has seen a protracted rout continue into this year.

China’s Bond Funds Outshine Equity Peers Amid Stocks Slump 

Mostly Borrowed Ideas Deep Dives, MBI Deep Dives

MBI Deep Dives

Mostly Borrowed Ideas Deep Dives

MBI is the abbreviation for “Mostly Borrowed Ideas”. Why “Mostly Borrowed Ideas?” As a generalist, I do not have a background in any particular sector. I enjoy navigating across industries, businesses, and countries to learn, understand, and connect the dots. In any case, most ideas and innovations are incremental in nature. Very few of us are smart enough to come up with truly original or groundbreaking ideas. I am Abdullah Al-Rezwan. I was born and brought up in Bangladesh. I went to University of Dhaka for my undergrad and majored in Finance. After working three and half years in Equity Research (Sell-side) covering Financial Sector in Bangladesh, I left Bangladesh to pursue my MBA in the US. I graduated within top 10% of the class from Cornell University's two-year MBA program and worked on the buy-side following my graduation. During my time at Cornell, I won two stock pitch competitions and also became finalists in four other competitions. I thoroughly enjoyed my stint as a generalist in the US large cap team at Madison Investments and covered a wide range of companies from UnitedHealth to Amazon and Boeing before US immigration reality paused my career in investment management. As my work authorization expired, I moved to Canada in January, 2021. Then in early 2022, I was able to return to the US.

Equity Bottom-Up

Meta Platforms (Facebook) / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>So I took this weekend to update my models on Meta and Amazon. I just wanted to leave some brisk thoughts on these updated models.</li><li>I will start with Meta today and will share my thoughts on Amazon tomorrow.</li><li>You can find the updated model on Meta here which I encourage you to download to play around with your own narrative as you see fit.</li></ul>

So I took this weekend to update my models on Meta and Amazon. I just wanted to leave some brisk thoughts on these updated models.I will start with Meta today and will share my thoughts on Amazon tomorrow.You can find the updated model on Meta here which I encourage you to download to play around with your own narrative as you see fit.

United States

NVIDIA Corporation designs, develops, and markets three dimensional (3D) graphics processors and related software.  The Company's products provide interactive 3D graphics to the mainstream personal computer market.

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NVIDIA Corp (NVDA US)

Are We Heading for a Volatility Event?

Notably, Semiconductors (light blue), Gold (depicted in blue), High-Yield OAS (in red), and Bitcoin (represented in black) exhibit remarkably...

Untying The Gordian Knot

Europe's Magnificent Eleven

The GRANOLAS Dubbed the “Granolas” by Goldman Sachs in 2020, this basket was chosen because it echoed themes present amongst the Mag 7 (back then...

Investment Talk

Maverick Charts & Markets - February 2024 Edition #15

note how the -4.63% growth last year was a rate that meant it was the fastest pace of money supply compression since Jan 1933 ... let that sink in!

Maverick Equity Research

China’s Bond Funds Outshine Equity Peers Amid Stocks Slump

China’s mutual funds produced a mixed bag of performance last year. Publicly offered equity funds endured a second straight year of losses,...

Caixin Global

Meta Platforms: Model Update

So I took this weekend to update my models on Meta and Amazon. I just wanted to leave some brisk thoughts on these updated models.

MBI Deep Dives

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