US Tech Company Research, MT Capital

MT Capital

US Tech Company Research

I demystify the world's most interesting tech companies, providing in-depth, no-nonsense, un-biased analysis on the most interesting Tech Companies available for investment today. I am a Mechanical Engineer by education, Software Engineer by trade and a self-trained Financial Analyst.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>Today I will be completing an in-depth analysis on Nvidia.</li><li>Within, I will break down the plethora of opportunities the company has in front of it, and attempt to provide a concise overview of the technological capabilities they possess.</li><li>In addition, I will break down each of the company’s business segments, dig into the company’s financials, and discuss some positive and risk-based factors alike that I deemed important when trying to perform a scenario analysis on the company as a whole.</li></ul>

Today I will be completing an in-depth analysis on Nvidia.Within, I will break down the plethora of opportunities the company has in front of it, and attempt to provide a concise overview of the technological capabilities they possess.In addition, I will break down each of the company’s business segments, dig into the company’s financials, and discuss some positive and risk-based factors alike that I deemed important when trying to perform a scenario analysis on the company as a whole.

Taiwan Tech Focused Asia L/S Analyst

Henry King

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Our latest checks with VGA card makers, ABF substate companies and mining system thermal suppliers all indicate VGA card demand is weakening.</li>
<li>Sanction on Russia and Shenzhen lockdown also dampens the VGA card downward trend</li>
<li>GPU prices remain unchanged though VGA card prices continue to fall. VGA card makers' sales and profit premium from the ASP hike shrinks gradually.</li>
</ul>


Our latest checks with VGA card makers, ABF substate companies and mining system thermal suppliers all indicate VGA card demand is weakening.
Sanction on Russia and Shenzhen lockdown also dampens the VGA card downward trend
GPU prices remain unchanged though VGA card prices continue to fall. VGA card makers' sales and profit premium from the ASP hike shrinks gradually.


More Evidences Show VGA Card Demand Is Weakening. Maintain Our Conservative View on VGA Card Market

<ul>
<li>1H22 is likely the peak for VGA card. Our checks with VGA card makers indicate VGA card price fell in January/February and likely to continue for the rest of 2022. </li>
<li>Potential supply surge, demand decline, and price drop will all lead VGA market to trend south in 2H22.</li>
<li>VGA makers will be negatively impacted in 2H22. Gigabyte may be hit the most whereas Asustek may hit the least. Nvidia should also be hit at a certain degree.</li>
</ul>


1H22 is likely the peak for VGA card. Our checks with VGA card makers indicate VGA card price fell in January/February and likely to continue for the rest of 2022. 
Potential supply surge, demand decline, and price drop will all lead VGA market to trend south in 2H22.
VGA makers will be negatively impacted in 2H22. Gigabyte may be hit the most whereas Asustek may hit the least. Nvidia should also be hit at a certain degree.


The Current Huge Gap of VGA Card Demand over Supply May Reverse in 2H22/2023

Podcast On the Business of Semiconductors, The Circuit

The Circuit

Podcast On the Business of Semiconductors

A Podcast On the Business of Semiconductors. With Jay Goldberg and Ben Bajarin

<ul><li>Jensen Huang showcased Nvidia's dominance in the data center during his keynote address</li><li>Nvidia's new Blackwell architecture involves stitching together two monolithic cores, not using chiplets, to create a single functioning chip</li><li>The innovation behind Blackwell and its impact on Nvidia's technological advancements were not fully appreciated during the event, highlighting the complexity and ingenuity of the design.</li></ul><p><em>This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.</em></p>

Jensen Huang showcased Nvidia's dominance in the data center during his keynote addressNvidia's new Blackwell architecture involves stitching together two monolithic cores, not using chiplets, to create a single functioning chipThe innovation behind Blackwell and its impact on Nvidia's technological advancements were not fully appreciated during the event, highlighting the complexity and ingenuity of the design.This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.

Episode 60: Takeaways, observations, and insights from Nvidia GTC

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>There are no constituent changes for the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/vaneck-vectors-semiconductor" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:32807:1" rel="noopener">VanEck Vectors Semiconductor (SMH US)</a> ETF in March but there are a lot of float and capping changes.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/taiwan-semiconductor-sp-adr" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8587:1" rel="noopener">Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) - ADR (TSM US)</a> is the largest buy while capping results in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nvidia-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5891:1" rel="noopener">NVIDIA Corp (NVDA US)</a> being the largest sell by far.</li>
<li>Estimated one-way turnover is 8.3% resulting in a round-trip trade of nearly US$3bn. There are a few stocks with more than 0.2x ADV to trade.</li>
</ul>


There are no constituent changes for the VanEck Vectors Semiconductor (SMH US) ETF in March but there are a lot of float and capping changes.

Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) - ADR (TSM US) is the largest buy while capping results in NVIDIA Corp (NVDA US) being the largest sell by far.
Estimated one-way turnover is 8.3% resulting in a round-trip trade of nearly US$3bn. There are a few stocks with more than 0.2x ADV to trade.


MV US Listed Semiconductor 25 Index Rebalance: Over US$1bn to Sell in NVIDIA

United States

NVIDIA Corporation designs, develops, and markets three dimensional (3D) graphics processors and related software.  The Company's products provide interactive 3D graphics to the mainstream personal computer market.

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NVIDIA Corp (NVDA US)

Nvidia ($NVDA)

Within, I will break down the plethora of opportunities the company has in front of it, and attempt to provide a concise overview of the...

MT Capital

More Evidences Show VGA Card Demand Is Weakening. Maintain Our Conservative View on VGA Card Market

After several years of robust growth on mining demand, we are likely to see the turning point for VGA cards in 1H22. We see more data points in...

Henry King

The Current Huge Gap of VGA Card Demand over Supply May Reverse in 2H22/2023

While Taiwanese VGA card makers reported record sales in January and NVIDIA reported record quarterly revenue for 4QFY22, the outlook of the VGA...

Henry King

Episode 60: Takeaways, observations, and insights from Nvidia GTC

Jensen presented Nvidia's new Blackwell architecture at an AI semiconductor conference, showcasing the company's dominance in the data center space...

The Circuit

MV US Listed Semiconductor 25 Index Rebalance: Over US$1bn to Sell in NVIDIA

TSMC is the largest buy and NVIDIA is the largest sell at the SMH rebalance in March. Estimated one-way turnover is 8.3% resulting in a round-trip...

Brian Freitas

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