Semiconductors, Memory and SSDs Specialist, Objective Analysis

Jim Handy

Semiconductors, Memory and SSDs Specialist

Objective Analysis

Objective Analysis offers third-party independent market research and data for the semiconductor industry and investors in the semiconductor industry.

Semiconductors, Memory and SSDs

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>November semiconductor revenues set a record for the highest shipment month in the history of the industry</li>
<li>Year-To-Date revenues and unit shipments, excluding December, are still higher than any full year in the industry's history</li>
<li>There is plenty of room for this to continue, barring a global economic meltdown</li>
</ul>


November semiconductor revenues set a record for the highest shipment month in the history of the industry
Year-To-Date revenues and unit shipments, excluding December, are still higher than any full year in the industry's history
There is plenty of room for this to continue, barring a global economic meltdown


November Semiconductors Once Again Set Records

<ul>
<li>2022 is likely to be a very good year for semiconductors, with 6% revenue growth following outstanding 2021 growth of ~22%.</li>
<li>Demand is solid, and shortages are driving prices higher.  Since revenues are demand times price, all signs are positive.</li>
<li>The factors that caused the last collapse, in 2019, are not in place this time, indicating that a downturn is very unlikely.</li>
</ul>


2022 is likely to be a very good year for semiconductors, with 6% revenue growth following outstanding 2021 growth of ~22%.
Demand is solid, and shortages are driving prices higher.  Since revenues are demand times price, all signs are positive.
The factors that caused the last collapse, in 2019, are not in place this time, indicating that a downturn is very unlikely.


2022 High Conviction - Modest Semiconductor Growth

Korea/Asia, Events, IPOs, Douglas Research Advisory

Douglas Kim

Korea/Asia, Events, IPOs

<ul>
<li>On 22 December, there there were four global metaverse ETFs launched by the local asset management companies in Korea.</li>
<li>Two days after the launch, the combined market caps of these four ETFs have already reached 163 billion won.</li>
<li>These four ETFs have different components, they all have the following four stocks in common (AMD, Microsoft, Unity Software, and Nvidia). </li>
</ul>


On 22 December, there there were four global metaverse ETFs launched by the local asset management companies in Korea.
Two days after the launch, the combined market caps of these four ETFs have already reached 163 billion won.
These four ETFs have different components, they all have the following four stocks in common (AMD, Microsoft, Unity Software, and Nvidia). 


Launch of Global Metaverse ETFs by Local Asset Mgmt Companies & Update of Korean Metaverse ETFs

Asset Allocation & Fund Positioning, Copley Fund Research

Steven Holden

Asset Allocation & Fund Positioning

Copley Fund Research

Copley Fund Research provide research and data on asset allocation among Global and Emerging Market equity funds.  The analysis details absolute and relative positioning across countries, sectors and industries together with highly granular data on single stock and single fund allocations.  The data is updated monthly with time series going back to January 2011.

Global Research - Analysis of 165 prominent Global equity funds, combined AUM $335bn
GEM Research - Analysis of 127 prominent global EM equity funds, combined AUM $250bn

Asset Allocation - Global and GEM Equity

<ul>
<li>US Tech allocations have hit fresh all-time highs among active Global investors.  Never before have Global investors placed such a reliance on US Tech to drive returns</li>
<li>We find that increases in US Tech weights were driven by relative price gains, rather than any active rebalancing in favour of the sector.</li>
<li>In fact, active momentum is slowing.  Value, Yield and GARP investors have increased underweights and Growth investors have moved from overweight to underweight.  </li>
</ul>


US Tech allocations have hit fresh all-time highs among active Global investors.  Never before have Global investors placed such a reliance on US Tech to drive returns
We find that increases in US Tech weights were driven by relative price gains, rather than any active rebalancing in favour of the sector.
In fact, active momentum is slowing.  Value, Yield and GARP investors have increased underweights and Growth investors have moved from overweight to underweight.  


US Tech:  Record Allocations, Record Underweights.  Value Becoming Harder to Find

Japan/Asia Long-Short, LightStream Research

Mio Kato

Japan/Asia Long-Short

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

Equity Bottom-Up

Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) - ADR / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>We believe Nvidia’s recent massive outperformance vs. the market and TSMC is unwarranted. </li>
<li>It appears to ignore significant risks to its market position from a resurgent AMD and market entry by Intel which we expect to be highly credible. </li>
<li>We also think the scramble for share within TSMC could disadvantage Nvidia.</li>
</ul>


We believe Nvidia’s recent massive outperformance vs. the market and TSMC is unwarranted. 
It appears to ignore significant risks to its market position from a resurgent AMD and market entry by Intel which we expect to be highly credible. 
We also think the scramble for share within TSMC could disadvantage Nvidia.


TSMC – Long TSMC Short Nvidia Looks Exceptionally Attractive

United States

NVIDIA Corporation designs, develops, and markets three dimensional (3D) graphics processors and related software.  The Company's products provide interactive 3D graphics to the mainstream personal computer market.

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NVIDIA Corp (NVDA US)

November Semiconductors Once Again Set Records

The semiconductor market once again set records in November, with 2021 revenues and unit shipments out-stripping all prior record years in its...

Jim Handy

2022 High Conviction - Modest Semiconductor Growth

Can today's semiconductor revenue growth continue, or will the market undergo another collapse? Objective Analysis calls for 6% growth, and shows...

Jim Handy

Launch of Global Metaverse ETFs by Local Asset Mgmt Companies & Update of Korean Metaverse ETFs

On 22 December, there there were four global metaverse ETFs launched by the local asset management companies in Korea. The combined market caps of...

Douglas Kim

US Tech: Record Allocations, Record Underweights. Value Becoming Harder to Find

US Tech allocations have hit fresh all-time highs among active Global investors. Never before have Global investors placed such a reliance on US...

Steven Holden

TSMC – Long TSMC Short Nvidia Looks Exceptionally Attractive

We believe Nvidia’s recent massive outperformance vs. the market and TSMC is unwarranted as it ignores risks to Nvidia's market position from a...

Mio Kato

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