Japan Specialist

Mark Chadwick

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Chinese lockdowns are taking their toll on Q2 sales. We expect the upcoming report to be much worse than the last </li>
<li>Estee Lauder's recent results suggest that travel retail will be a negative shock too </li>
<li>We believe there is one large downgrade to full-year guidance and consensus numbers. Too early turn bullish </li>
</ul>


Chinese lockdowns are taking their toll on Q2 sales. We expect the upcoming report to be much worse than the last 
Estee Lauder's recent results suggest that travel retail will be a negative shock too 
We believe there is one large downgrade to full-year guidance and consensus numbers. Too early turn bullish 


Shiseido (4911 JP) | Q2 Results Will Make Analysts Blush

Equity Analyst, LightStream Research

Oshadhi Kumarasiri

Equity Analyst

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

<ul>
<li>At 4% below the COVID sell-off low level, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shiseido-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5718:1" rel="noopener">Shiseido Company (4911 JP)</a> is looking genuinely attractive over the medium-long term.</li>
<li>In addition, there could be a shift in the short term market sentiment towards Japanese cosmetics with China’s COVID lockdowns expected to ease from the beginning of next month.</li>
<li>With the downside risk limited to less than 10%, we think it may be a good time to start owning Shiseido.</li>
</ul>


At 4% below the COVID sell-off low level, Shiseido Company (4911 JP) is looking genuinely attractive over the medium-long term.
In addition, there could be a shift in the short term market sentiment towards Japanese cosmetics with China’s COVID lockdowns expected to ease from the beginning of next month.
With the downside risk limited to less than 10%, we think it may be a good time to start owning Shiseido.


Shiseido: Around 59% Upside Possible on Upgrades to Consensus

<ul>
<li>The market position of Japanese cosmetics in China is weakening with Japanese exports declining around 5.0% YoY in January and February 2022.</li>
<li>With Shanghai under a strict lockdown and the recovery of inbound demand taking more time than expected, it is possible that <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shiseido-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5718:1" rel="noopener">Shiseido Company (4911 JP)</a> could downgrade its 2022 guidance.</li>
<li>These forces could take Shiseido’s valuation multiples to the pre-2013 level, resulting in a downside of close to 30%.</li>
</ul>


The market position of Japanese cosmetics in China is weakening with Japanese exports declining around 5.0% YoY in January and February 2022.
With Shanghai under a strict lockdown and the recovery of inbound demand taking more time than expected, it is possible that Shiseido Company (4911 JP) could downgrade its 2022 guidance.
These forces could take Shiseido’s valuation multiples to the pre-2013 level, resulting in a downside of close to 30%.


Shiseido: Shanghai Lockdown Adds Pressure to Faltering Japanese Cosmetics

<ul>
<li>We last wrote on this relatively small Japanese cosmetics company in September 2021 suggesting that it could be worth keeping an eye on given its cheaper valuation compared to peers.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/premier-anti-aging-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:34292:1" rel="noopener">Premier Anti-Aging (4934 JP)</a> shares are down 80% from the peak, mostly because it was sold-off alongside the low quality names in Mothers.</li>
<li>It seems early to turn outright bullish on Premier Anti-Aging yet. However, if you are short other unprofitable names in Mothers, we think Premier Anti-Aging is a sensible long hedge.</li>
</ul>


We last wrote on this relatively small Japanese cosmetics company in September 2021 suggesting that it could be worth keeping an eye on given its cheaper valuation compared to peers.

Premier Anti-Aging (4934 JP) shares are down 80% from the peak, mostly because it was sold-off alongside the low quality names in Mothers.
It seems early to turn outright bullish on Premier Anti-Aging yet. However, if you are short other unprofitable names in Mothers, we think Premier Anti-Aging is a sensible long hedge.


Premier Anti-Aging Company:  Getting to an Interesting Level

Korea/Asia, Events, IPOs, Douglas Research Advisory

Douglas Kim

Korea/Asia, Events, IPOs

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>In this insight, we discuss the recent COVID-19 stats including cases, deaths, and recovery/death rates.</li>
<li>In addition, we analyze the easing of travel restrictions among major Asian countries including Australia, India, Japan, Singapore, Thailand, and South Korea. </li>
<li>More countries are treating COVID-19 not as a pandemic but as a serious flu. </li>
</ul>


In this insight, we discuss the recent COVID-19 stats including cases, deaths, and recovery/death rates.
In addition, we analyze the easing of travel restrictions among major Asian countries including Australia, India, Japan, Singapore, Thailand, and South Korea. 
More countries are treating COVID-19 not as a pandemic but as a serious flu. 


A Review of COVID-19 Cases & The Easing of Travel Restrictions in Major Asian Countries

Japan

Shiseido Company, Limited manufactures cosmetic and toiletry products. The Company offers an array of makeup and skin-care products, toiletries, beauty salon, pharmaceuticals, foodstuffs, and fine chemicals.

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Shiseido Company (4911 JP)

Shiseido (4911 JP) | Q2 Results Will Make Analysts Blush

We believe that Shiseido faces significant headwinds in the current quarter. We expect a large downward revision to company guidance and street...

Mark Chadwick

Shiseido: Around 59% Upside Possible on Upgrades to Consensus

At 4% below the COVID sell-off low level, Shiseido is looking genuinely attractive over the medium-long term. In addition, there could be a shift...

Oshadhi Kumarasiri

Shiseido: Shanghai Lockdown Adds Pressure to Faltering Japanese Cosmetics

With Shanghai under a strict lockdown and the recovery of inbound demand taking more time than expected, it is possible that Shiseido could...

Oshadhi Kumarasiri

Premier Anti-Aging Company: Getting to an Interesting Level

Premier Anti-Aging’s current multiple is around 27% below the sector’s cyclical low multiple suggesting that there could be significant upside...

Oshadhi Kumarasiri

A Review of COVID-19 Cases & The Easing of Travel Restrictions in Major Asian Countries

We discuss the recent COVID-19 stats including cases, deaths, and recovery/death rates in major Asian countries. More countries are treating COVID...

Douglas Kim

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)