Japan/Asia Long-Short, LightStream Research

Mio Kato

Japan/Asia Long-Short

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

Equity Bottom-Up

Another quarter, another blowout for Nintendo which continues to make a mockery of sell-side forecasts. The company also raised its guidance for Switch sales to 24.0m units which is +14.1% YoY, validating our suggestion at the start of the year that an increase was entirely plausible. We believe a new all-time-high is on the cards.

Another quarter, another blowout for Nintendo which continues to make a mockery of sell-side forecasts. The company also raised its guidance for Switch sales to 24.0m units which is +14.1% YoY, validating our suggestion at the start of the year that an increase was entirely plausible. We believe a new all-time-high is on the cards.

Advanced Micro Devices / Equity Bottom-Up

As we had speculated previously, it turns out that AMD’s teaser benchmarks for its graphics cards, at the Ryzen 5000 series presentation, were not for its highest end card. The company’s presentation on its newest line-up underscores the enormous improvement in competitiveness that AMD has engineered over the last few years and has implications not just for its direct competitors but also supplier TSMC and Nvidia customer, Nintendo.

As we had speculated previously, it turns out that AMD’s teaser benchmarks for its graphics cards, at the Ryzen 5000 series presentation, were not for its highest end card. The company’s presentation on its newest line-up underscores the enormous improvement in competitiveness that AMD has engineered over the last few years and has implications not just for its direct competitors but also supplier TSMC and Nvidia customer, Nintendo.

AMD – RX6000 Series Should Make Intel and Nvidia Sweat and TSMC and Nintendo Smile a Touch

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

A brief thinkpiece about where <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nexon-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16032:1" rel="noopener">Nexon (3659 JP)</a> sits vs its peers and history. Conclusions are that NEXON is not dramatically expensive to its peers on a Forward EV/EBIT multiple basis. You would need another 5+% into the close to be comfortable with a clean short-term trade given the change in Real World FloatOriginal insight is <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/familymart-delisting-and-its-nikkei-225-replacement-is-nexon-3659" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:44429" rel="noopener">Familymart Delisting and Its Nikkei 225 Replacement Is Nexon (3659)</a>.More below the fold.

A brief thinkpiece about where Nexon (3659 JP) sits vs its peers and history. Conclusions are that NEXON is not dramatically expensive to its peers on a Forward EV/EBIT multiple basis. You would need another 5+% into the close to be comfortable with a clean short-term trade given the change in Real World FloatOriginal insight is Familymart Delisting and Its Nikkei 225 Replacement Is Nexon (3659).More below the fold.  

Is It Safe to Short NEXON into the Inclusion?

Koei Tecmo Holdings is up 95% since we first initiated on it touting the strength of Sangokushi Senryakuban in China. Since then, news flow and developments have been positive for both the company and the industry. Just announced 2Q results were good, if not especially surprising, but guidance was strong, and an upcoming split and implied dividend hike are all positive. But these are not the reasons why we believe this remains a highly attractive name.

Koei Tecmo Holdings is up 95% since we first initiated on it touting the strength of Sangokushi Senryakuban in China. Since then, news flow and developments have been positive for both the company and the industry. Just announced 2Q results were good, if not especially surprising, but guidance was strong, and an upcoming split and implied dividend hike are all positive. But these are not the reasons why we believe this remains a highly attractive name.

Koei-Tecmo – Up 107% in a Year, Yet Not Too Late to Own

Quality-first, Business-perspective Strategy, Urbem (HK) Limited

Steven Chen

Quality-first, Business-perspective Strategy

<ul>
<li>IGG looks like an unusual beaten-down stock, as the industry that the company operates is actually benefiting from the pandemic and booming;</li>
<li>Is Mr. Market misunderstanding any of the business fundamentals, or is he correct in terms of any possible value trap?</li>
</ul>


IGG looks like an unusual beaten-down stock, as the industry that the company operates is actually benefiting from the pandemic and booming;
Is Mr. Market misunderstanding any of the business fundamentals, or is he correct in terms of any possible value trap?


Japan

Nintendo Co., Ltd. globally develops, manufactures and sells home-use video game hardware and software in home entertainment business.  The company also produces home-game products including cards.

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Nintendo (7974 JP)

Nintendo – Super Duper Mario… 2!

Nintendo continues to shatter records and consensus continues to lag drastically behind reality. The question is, how much upside is left and when...

Mio Kato

AMD – RX6000 Series Should Make Intel and Nvidia Sweat and TSMC and Nintendo Smile a Touch

AMD's ability to suddenly match or better Intel and Nvidia in CPUs and GPUs bodes well for the company but we also feel that GPU developments are...

Mio Kato

Is It Safe to Short NEXON into the Inclusion?

Nexon has bounced on the Nikkei 225 inclusion. It may not have bounced enough to be aggressively short. The forward fundamental multiple isn't...

Travis Lundy

Koei-Tecmo – Up 107% in a Year, Yet Not Too Late to Own

Koei Tecmo Holdings 2Q results looked roughly in-line and the company announced a delay of a key title, but there are some real positives under the...

Mio Kato

IGG: Deep Value or Value Trap?

Is Mr. Market being too pessimistic about IGG, which operates in a booming industry benefiting from the pandemic, or is he correct in terms of any...

Steven Chen

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