Independent Insight Provider

Stewart Paterson

Taurus Advisors LLP

Macroeconomics

US Consumer Price Inflation released today surprised to the upside. Core CPI at 2.3% is comfortably above the Fed's inflation target of 2%. As importantly, perhaps, the 12 month moving average for the core inflation - at 2.2% - is at its highest level since the GFC. The last time the twelve month average core CPI was this high AND trending up (as opposed to being in the process of collapsing) was in mid 2006 when the upper bound of the fed fund rate was 5.25%. While the world has change since…

US Consumer Price Inflation released today surprised to the upside. Core CPI at 2.3% is comfortably above the Fed's inflation target of 2%. As importantly, perhaps, the 12 month moving average for the core inflation - at 2.2% - is at its highest level since the GFC. The last time the twelve month average core CPI was this high AND trending up (as opposed to being in the process of collapsing) was in mid 2006 when the upper bound of the fed fund rate was 5.25%. While the world has change since…

Research and consultancy, Tabbush Report

Daniel Tabbush

Research and consultancy

Tabbush Report

We provide research and consultancy on Asian banks. Our focus is on what we call “Asian bank research, without the noise.” We are interested in the most critical swing-factors for banks, the NPL and credit cycle, and where we believe there is a gap between perception and reality. We often focus on the less studied components of bank financial statements.  Our research is highly thematic, sometimes examining unlisted banks and companies as a window on mainstream banks. 

Being independent allows us to look at smaller banks, often overlooked by others. Analysis of BIS bank guidelines in the context of Asia, is also a focal point, while we also analyze global banks operating in the region. We use what we believe is the most comprehensive, reliable financials database, SNL Financial. S&P Capital IQ augments our database, with corporate data and CEIC, with economics. 

Asian bank research, without the noise.

Equity Bottom-Up

<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/516" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:516:1">HSBC Holdings Plc (5 HK)</a> will see its share of worsening exposures in oil &amp; gas, commodities, energy and shipping. With de-risking all the rage, we would also expect less strong trading income, which historically had been a reasonable revenue driver. HSBC’s profit declined sharply in the past three quarters, to a slight loss in 3Q16. Where its credit costs remained low in that period, we would not be surprised to see a rebound here; maybe not on par with <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/114" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:114:1">Oversea Chinese Banking Corp. Limited</a>…

HSBC Holdings Plc (5 HK) will see its share of worsening exposures in oil &amp; gas, commodities, energy and shipping. With de-risking all the rage, we would also expect less strong trading income, which historically had been a reasonable revenue driver. HSBC’s profit declined sharply in the past three quarters, to a slight loss in 3Q16. Where its credit costs remained low in that period, we would not be surprised to see a rebound here; maybe not on par with Oversea Chinese Banking Corp. Limited…

On my Latin key board "I Mera Tis Marmotas" is the closest I can get to the Greek for groundhog day. Traditionally celebrated at the start of February, groundhog day is suppose to portend the arrival of spring but since the 1993 film of the same name has come to mean that feeling of being caught in a repeating time-loop. And so we find that in February 2017, the German Finance Minister, the Greek Prime Minister, the board of the IMF and Greece's Eurozone partners are arguing about the…

On my Latin key board "I Mera Tis Marmotas" is the closest I can get to the Greek for groundhog day. Traditionally celebrated at the start of February, groundhog day is suppose to portend the arrival of spring but since the 1993 film of the same name has come to mean that feeling of being caught in a repeating time-loop. And so we find that in February 2017, the German Finance Minister, the Greek Prime Minister, the board of the IMF and Greece's Eurozone partners are arguing about the…

Asean-focused. Ex-Head of Thai Research

Athaporn Arayasantiparb, CFA

BAY, New King of Plastic. According to a new Poll by my engineering school alma mater Assumption University (2nd biggest campus pollster in Thailand after Dusit), <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/136" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:136:1">Bank Of Ayudhya Pcl (BAY TB)</a> has beaten KBANK for boasting rights of being Thailand's biggest credit card issuer. Note that the numbers will add up to more than 100%, since almost 70% of respondents have more than one credit card. Anyway, this is pretty surprising result, since KBANK creamed both previous market leaders, Citi and KTC…

BAY, New King of Plastic. According to a new Poll by my engineering school alma mater Assumption University (2nd biggest campus pollster in Thailand after Dusit), Bank Of Ayudhya Pcl (BAY TB) has beaten KBANK for boasting rights of being Thailand's biggest credit card issuer. Note that the numbers will add up to more than 100%, since almost 70% of respondents have more than one credit card. Anyway, this is pretty surprising result, since KBANK creamed both previous market leaders, Citi and KTC…

Independent, global risk consultancy, Control Risks

Aparajita Verma

Independent, global risk consultancy

Control Risks

Control Risks is an independent, global risk consultancy specialising in helping organisations manage political, integrity and security risks in complex and hostile environments. We support clients by providing strategic consultancy, expert analysis and in-depth investigations, handling sensitive political issues and providing practical on-the-ground protection and support.

Our unique combination of services, geographical reach and the trust our clients place in us ensure we can help them to effectively solve their problems and realise new opportunities across the world.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<a href="http://riskmap.controlrisks.com/team-view/bill-udell/" target="_blank">Bill Udell</a> and <a href="http://riskmap.controlrisks.com/team-view/jonathan-wood/" target="_blank">Jonathan Wood</a> talk about how companies are becoming susceptible to a more fragmented, less predictable global terrorism threat in 2017, and how are they adjusting risk management practices to tackle the evolving threat.

 Bill Udell and Jonathan Wood talk about how companies are becoming susceptible to a more fragmented, less predictable global terrorism threat in 2017, and how are they adjusting risk management practices to tackle the evolving threat.

United Kingdom

HSBC Holdings plc is the holding company for the HSBC Group. The Company provides a variety of international banking and financial services, including retail and corporate banking, trade, trusteeship, securities, custody, capital markets, treasury, private and investment banking, and insurance.  The Group operates worldwide.

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HSBC Holdings (5 HK)

Money Matters: US Inflation & The Fed

US Consumer Price Inflation released today surprised to the upside. Core CPI at 2.3% is comfortably above the Fed's inflation target of 2%. As...

Stewart Paterson

HSBC Results May Be Gruesome

HSBC Holdings Plc (5 HK) will see its share of worsening exposures in oil & gas, commodities, energy and shipping. With de-risking all the...

Daniel Tabbush

Money Matters: I Mera Tis Marmotas

On my Latin key board "I Mera Tis Marmotas" is the closest I can get to the Greek for groundhog day. Traditionally celebrated at the start of...

Stewart Paterson

Thailand's New Credit Card Honcho

BAY, New King of Plastic. According to a new Poll by my engineering school alma mater Assumption University (2nd biggest campus pollster in...

Athaporn Arayasantiparb, CFA

Fragmented Terror Threat

Bill Udell and Jonathan Wood talk about how companies are becoming susceptible to a more fragmented, less predictable global terrorism threat in...

Control Risks

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