Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<p>The weight of the evidence continues to support our mixed, but overall constructive outlook. Below we outline the basis for our outlook, and we also highlight opportunities within Real Estate and Health Care.</p>

The weight of the evidence continues to support our mixed, but overall constructive outlook. Below we outline the basis for our outlook, and we also highlight opportunities within Real Estate and Health Care.

Global Equity Strategy: Opportunities In Real Estate and Health Care

<p>Despite a much more mixed market environment, our weight-of-the-evidence approach continues to support a constructive intermediate-term outlook. The bottom line: there is little evidence that suggests a pullback would be anything more than a buying opportunity.</p>

Despite a much more mixed market environment, our weight-of-the-evidence approach continues to support a constructive intermediate-term outlook. The bottom line: there is little evidence that suggests a pullback would be anything more than a buying opportunity.

Defensives Are Worth A Look; Hang Seng, Shanghai Comp, Nikkei 225, STOXX 50 Support Levels Holding

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<p>In January 2019, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/capitaland-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:55:1" rel="noopener">Capitaland (CAPL SP)</a> and Ascendas-Singbridge <a href="https://investor.capitaland.com/newsroom/20190114_080328_C31_NG341OU6TBGTR31P.1.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">announced</a> a deal for Capitaland to purchase Ascendas-Singbridge in a 50/50 cash/scrip deal, and recently-promoted CEO Mr. Lee Choo Koon and his executive team put forth the idea of Capitaland 3.0, which among other things meant "Creating Asia's Largest Diversified Real Estate Group."</p><p>The plan was...</p><section class="figure"><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/196/145/original/Screenshot+2021-03-22+at+11.44.22+AM.png?1616384726" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="196145"></figure></section><section class="figure"><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/196/146/original/Screenshot+2021-03-22+at+11.44.36+AM.png?1616384736" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="196146"></figure></section><section class="figure"><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/196/147/original/Screenshot+2021-03-22+at+11.45.06+AM.png?1616384749" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="196147"></figure></section><p></p><p>It got to that position, but two years later (one of those years admittedly with covid-19), in an announcement of a NEW deal, the proposed real estate investment manager has dropped down to 12th largest real estate investment manager. </p><section class="figure"><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/196/148/original/Screenshot+2021-03-22+at+12.03.41+PM.png?1616385866" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="196148"></figure></section><hr><h2>The NEW News</h2><p>Today, after seeing all the Capitaland names halted early, Capitaland has <a href="https://links.sgx.com/FileOpen/20210322_CL_Announcement%20Presentation_Restructuring.ashx?App=Announcement&amp;FileID=652735" target="_blank" rel="noopener">announced</a> a restructuring whereby Capitaland will split itself into three pillars - Fund Management, Lodging, and Development. </p><section class="figure"><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/196/149/original/Screenshot+2021-03-22+at+12.07.03+PM.png?1616386071" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="196149"></figure></section><p>If this deal gets approved, Capitaland shareholders will receive cash, shares in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/capitaland-integrated-commercial-trust" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:105:1" rel="noopener">Capitaland Integrated Commercial Trust (CICT SP)</a>, and shares in a newly-listed Capitaland Investment Management spun out of Capitaland. </p><div class="content-highlight"><p>The question investors will need to ask themselves is whether this is a good thing for them.  </p></div>

In January 2019, Capitaland (CAPL SP) and Ascendas-Singbridge announced a deal for Capitaland to purchase Ascendas-Singbridge in a 50/50 cash/scrip deal, and recently-promoted CEO Mr. Lee Choo Koon and his executive team put forth the idea of Capitaland 3.0, which among other things meant "Creating Asia's Largest Diversified Real Estate Group."The plan was...It got to that position, but two years later (one of those years admittedly with covid-19), in an announcement of a NEW deal, the proposed real estate investment manager has dropped down to 12th largest real estate investment manager. The NEW NewsToday, after seeing all the Capitaland names halted early, Capitaland has announced a restructuring whereby Capitaland will split itself into three pillars - Fund Management, Lodging, and Development. If this deal gets approved, Capitaland shareholders will receive cash, shares in Capitaland Integrated Commercial Trust (CICT SP), and shares in a newly-listed Capitaland Investment Management spun out of Capitaland. The question investors will need to ask themselves is whether this is a good thing for them.  

Capitaland (CAPL SP) Restructuring Is Big But Still Vague. Lots of Fine Print to Read.

David Blennerhassett

Equity Bottom-Up

<p>A number of corporate developments have unfolded at <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/pccw-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:873:1" rel="noopener">PCCW Ltd (8 HK)</a> over the past year including a partial offer from Richard Li (<em><a href="https://skr.ma/97Cbz" target="_blank" rel="noopener">PCCW: Partial Offer To Lift Li Above 30%</a></em>), lifting his stake above the general Offer threshold level of 30%; partially in-specie-ing its stake in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/pacific-century-premium-developments-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:19652:1" rel="noopener">Pacific Century Premium Developments (432 HK)</a>, such that the property developer is no longer consolidated; selling NOW TV to <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hkt-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:874:1" rel="noopener">HKT Ltd (6823 HK)</a>; and selling non-core related investments in Malaysia.</p>
<p>The Partial Offer led to a significant narrowing in PCCW's discount to NAV, where it has steadfastly remained. </p>
<p>PCCW has marginally underperformed the HSI over the past year - -4% vs -1.5% - but has outperformed <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hkt-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:874:1" rel="noopener">HKT Ltd (6823 HK)</a>'s -13.5%. </p>
<p>Despite the gradual cleaning of house, and Li's move to consolidate greater control, PCCW's stub ops - ex-HKT - stubbornly remain in the red (on an EBITDA basis), as they have done so for near-on a decade.</p>
<p>Reports are now emerging PCCW is in the cross-hairs to be deleted from the MSCI in the May review.</p>
<p>As always, more below the fold.</p>

A number of corporate developments have unfolded at PCCW Ltd (8 HK) over the past year including a partial offer from Richard Li (PCCW: Partial Offer To Lift Li Above 30%), lifting his stake above the general Offer threshold level of 30%; partially in-specie-ing its stake in Pacific Century Premium Developments (432 HK), such that the property developer is no longer consolidated; selling NOW TV to HKT Ltd (6823 HK); and selling non-core related investments in Malaysia.
The Partial Offer led to a significant narrowing in PCCW's discount to NAV, where it has steadfastly remained. 
PCCW has marginally underperformed the HSI over the past year - -4% vs -1.5% - but has outperformed HKT Ltd (6823 HK)'s -13.5%. 
Despite the gradual cleaning of house, and Li's move to consolidate greater control, PCCW's stub ops - ex-HKT - stubbornly remain in the red (on an EBITDA basis), as they have done so for near-on a decade.
Reports are now emerging PCCW is in the cross-hairs to be deleted from the MSCI in the May review.
As always, more below the fold.

Chart based progressive global trading strategies, Chart Partners

Thomas Schroeder

Chart based progressive global trading strategies

Chart Partners

Chart Partners objective is to discover medium-term cycle turns and profit opportunities before they unfold, within structural trends while preserving capital with clear degrees of risk. We have real return ideas. 

Markets are dynamic and trading systems must reflect this. It is crucial to determine underlying correlations and lead-lag relationships within global markets and the impact on linked instruments. Our weekly Chartonics product gives you short-term trading strategies that can be applied within the medium and longer term macro trends that are mapped out in our strategy updates. 

Our methodology fuses global market variables and isolates drivers in trends. We specialize in FX, index trade in NY and Asia with a focus on Asian stocks. 

<p><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/wharf-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:51:1" rel="noopener">Wharf Holdings (4 HK)</a> has made headway from our 14 buy zone outlined in our May 20 insight <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/wharf-long-to-test-macro-trend-inflection-barrier" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:39572" rel="noopener">Wharf Long to Test Macro Trend Inflection Barrier</a> . The level to clear was 16.50/17 and will act as forward support. Macro trendline resistance lies at 19-20 and a level that is expected to meet sell pressure for a rejection that sets up a fresh long on a pullback cycle where we will be looking for a fresh long near the 16 region.</p><p>The macro cycle remains constructive but faces tactical exhaustion near the trendline barrier. 15 represents the bull/bear line to hold to maintain bull energy.</p>

Wharf Holdings (4 HK) has made headway from our 14 buy zone outlined in our May 20 insight Wharf Long to Test Macro Trend Inflection Barrier . The level to clear was 16.50/17 and will act as forward support. Macro trendline resistance lies at 19-20 and a level that is expected to meet sell pressure for a rejection that sets up a fresh long on a pullback cycle where we will be looking for a fresh long near the 16 region.The macro cycle remains constructive but faces tactical exhaustion near the trendline barrier. 15 represents the bull/bear line to hold to maintain bull energy.

Hong Kong

The Wharf (Holdings) Limited, through its subsidiaries, develops and invests in real estate properties. The Company also owns and manages hotels and operates logistics business. In addition, the Wharf operates telecommunication business, cable television, and Internet-related businesses.

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Wharf Holdings (4 HK)

Global Equity Strategy: Opportunities In Real Estate and Health Care

The weight of the evidence continues to support our mixed, but overall constructive outlook. We outline the basis for our outlook and also...

Vermilion Research

Defensives Are Worth A Look; Hang Seng, Shanghai Comp, Nikkei 225, STOXX 50 Support Levels Holding

A review of major global indexes reveals an absence of major breakdowns. We highlight opportunities within defensive Sectors (Real Estate, Consumer...

Vermilion Research

Capitaland (CAPL SP) Restructuring Is Big But Still Vague. Lots of Fine Print to Read.

Capitaland today announced a restructuring where the parent gets the Developer, minorities get cash plus shares in a new asset-lighter Real Estate...

Travis Lundy

PCCW (8 HK): Possible MSCI Deletion

PCCW appears to be fully priced at 2+STD on a NAV discount. I would look to unwind here if already in, and look to reverse the stub - Short PCCW,...

David Blennerhassett

Wharf Tactical Sell and Fresh Long Level

Wharf is due for a rally stall at 19-20. A pullback is viewed as a buying opportunity to eventually clear this barrier with sights set on the next...

Thomas Schroeder

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