Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech, Aequitas Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>We analyzed the latest HK SFC report for aggregate short position as of Dec 2nd.</li>
<li>Top short increases and decreases were tabulated for one week and four week period. </li>
<li>We highlight short changes in Kuaishou, GCL, Haidilao, Wharf, Haichang Ocean Park, Xiaomi, China Gas, Netease.</li>
</ul>


We analyzed the latest HK SFC report for aggregate short position as of Dec 2nd.
Top short increases and decreases were tabulated for one week and four week period. 
We highlight short changes in Kuaishou, GCL, Haidilao, Wharf, Haichang Ocean Park, Xiaomi, China Gas, Netease.


HK Short Interest Weekly: Kuaishou, GCL, Haidilao

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Sumeet Singh

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements

Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/onewo-space-tech" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36204:1" rel="noopener">Onewo Space-Tech (ONEWO HK)</a> aims to raise upto US$2bn in its Hong Kong IPO. OST is a property management service provider primarily owned by <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-vanke-co-ltd-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18368:1" rel="noopener">China Vanke (2202 HK)</a>. </li>
<li>As per Frost &amp; Sullivan, amongst the residential community service providers in China, OST ranked first. It also ranked first in the commercial space integrated services market in China.</li>
<li>In this note, we provide our earnings estimates and thoughts on valuation.</li>
</ul>



Onewo Space-Tech (ONEWO HK) aims to raise upto US$2bn in its Hong Kong IPO. OST is a property management service provider primarily owned by China Vanke (2202 HK). 
As per Frost &amp; Sullivan, amongst the residential community service providers in China, OST ranked first. It also ranked first in the commercial space integrated services market in China.
In this note, we provide our earnings estimates and thoughts on valuation.


Onewo Space-Tech Pre-IPO - Thoughts on Valuation

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/toshiba-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:637:1" rel="noopener"><strong>Toshiba (6502 JP)</strong></a>'s activists are stuck. So are management. 3+ years since the last big buyback, 3 new CEOs and we are back to the drawing board for both management/activists. </li>
<li>Quarz and <strong><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mapletree-north-asia-commercial-trust" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5127:1" rel="noopener">Mapletree North Asia Commercial Trust (MAGIC SP)</a></strong> holders "win" to get a Cash-Only Consideration bump to 1.0x Price/Sep2021 NAV at S$1.1949/unit. This gets them out at NAV.</li>
<li>Regulatory overhang sees <strong><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/link-administration-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:970:1" rel="noopener">Link Administration Holdings (LNK AU)</a></strong>'s spread to terms trading wide. </li>
</ul>



Toshiba (6502 JP)'s activists are stuck. So are management. 3+ years since the last big buyback, 3 new CEOs and we are back to the drawing board for both management/activists. 
Quarz and Mapletree North Asia Commercial Trust (MAGIC SP) holders "win" to get a Cash-Only Consideration bump to 1.0x Price/Sep2021 NAV at S$1.1949/unit. This gets them out at NAV.
Regulatory overhang sees Link Administration Holdings (LNK AU)'s spread to terms trading wide. 


Last Week in Event SPACE: Toshiba, Mapletree, Link Admin, Cayman's Headcount, Razer, Crown Resorts

Henderson Land Development / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<strong><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/henderson-land-development-co" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:376:1" rel="noopener">Henderson Land Development (12 HK)</a></strong>'s shares bounced late last week after the Hong Kong government indicated it would ease strict Covid measures. FY21 results were also released yesterday.</li>
<li>Preceding my comments on Henderson, are the current setup/unwind tables for Asia-Pacific Holdcos. </li>
<li>These relationships trade with a minimum liquidity of US$1mn, and a % market capitalisation &gt;20%.</li>
</ul>



Henderson Land Development (12 HK)'s shares bounced late last week after the Hong Kong government indicated it would ease strict Covid measures. FY21 results were also released yesterday.
Preceding my comments on Henderson, are the current setup/unwind tables for Asia-Pacific Holdcos. 
These relationships trade with a minimum liquidity of US$1mn, and a % market capitalisation &gt;20%.


StubWorld: Buoyant Henderson As Hong Kong Eases Covid Rules

<div>
<div class="content-highlight">
<p><em><strong>Corrigenda: There is an error in this Insight. Please note the correction.</strong></em></p>
<p><em><strong>Correction: [Under the section “On the Evergrande holding”], that (unrealised &amp; realised) loss on the investment in Evergrande (3333 HK) of HK$10.4bn almost certainly includes the HK$3.99bn loss on investment included in the 2021 interims.</strong></em></p>
<p><em><strong>Therefore the additional (unrealised &amp; realised) loss on investment, using the $2.95/share price for Evergrande as provided in the announcement, is ~HK$6.4bn, or HK$3.37/share, giving an adjusted NAV of HK$9.61/share (ignoring forward earnings), implying a P/B under the Offer of ~0.42x compared to a three-year average of 0.31x.</strong></em></p>
</div>
<p>After being <a href="chrome-extension://efaidnbmnnnibpcajpcglclefindmkaj/viewer.html?pdfurl=https%3A%2F%2Fwww1.hkexnews.hk%2Flistedco%2Flistconews%2Fsehk%2F2021%2F0929%2F2021092900219.pdf&amp;clen=26125&amp;chunk=true" target="_blank" rel="noopener">suspended</a> on the 29 September pursuant to the Hong Kong Code on Takeovers and Mergers, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/chinese-estates-holdings-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20954:1" rel="noopener">Chinese Estates Holdings (127 HK)</a>, a leading property developer in Hong Kong, has now <a href="chrome-extension://efaidnbmnnnibpcajpcglclefindmkaj/viewer.html?pdfurl=https%3A%2F%2Fwww1.hkexnews.hk%2Flistedco%2Flistconews%2Fsehk%2F2021%2F1006%2F2021100601285.pdf&amp;clen=203491&amp;chunk=true" target="_blank" rel="noopener">announced</a> an Offer, by way of a Scheme, from its founder, Joseph Lau, and his wife Chan Hoi Wan.</p>
</div>
<div>
<p>The consideration is $4.00/share, a 37.9% premium to last close, but an impressive 83.5% premium to the close on the last full trading day. The Offer price will NOT be increased.</p>
</div>
<div>
<p>Lau and Chan control <a href="https://di.hkex.com.hk/di/NSAllSSList.aspx?sa2=as&amp;sid=206&amp;corpn=Chinese+Estates+Holdings+Ltd.&amp;sd=29/09/2013&amp;ed=29/09/2021&amp;cid=0&amp;sa1=cl&amp;scsd=29%2f09%2f2013&amp;sced=29%2f09%2f2021&amp;sc=127&amp;src=MAIN&amp;lang=EN&amp;g_lang=en&amp;" target="_blank" rel="noopener">74.99%</a> of the company. Disinterested shareholders comprise 21.41% of shares out, therefore the blocking stake at the forthcoming Court Meeting is 2.141% of shares out. </p>
<p>The headcount test applies.</p>
</div>
<div>
<p>In <em><a href="https://skr.ma/1HQM2" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Chinese Estates (127 HK): Potential Privatisation?</a></em>, I expected a punchy premium (to the "undisturbed price") upwards of up 75%, or $3.82/share, to get this over the line. This has been exceeded. </p>
<p>Optically, Lau and Chan appear to be getting Chinese Estates at a bargain. But the current realised plus unrealised losses on the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-evergrande-group" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:479:1" rel="noopener">Evergrande (3333 HK)</a> holding is HK$10.4bn, which dramatically alters what is deemed to be book value, and therefore the implied valuation metric under the Offer.</p>
<p>This looks like a done deal and should trade tight to terms.</p>
</div>
<div>
<div>
<p></p>
</div>
</div>



Corrigenda: There is an error in this Insight. Please note the correction.
Correction: [Under the section “On the Evergrande holding”], that (unrealised &amp; realised) loss on the investment in Evergrande (3333 HK) of HK$10.4bn almost certainly includes the HK$3.99bn loss on investment included in the 2021 interims.
Therefore the additional (unrealised &amp; realised) loss on investment, using the $2.95/share price for Evergrande as provided in the announcement, is ~HK$6.4bn, or HK$3.37/share, giving an adjusted NAV of HK$9.61/share (ignoring forward earnings), implying a P/B under the Offer of ~0.42x compared to a three-year average of 0.31x.

After being suspended on the 29 September pursuant to the Hong Kong Code on Takeovers and Mergers, Chinese Estates Holdings (127 HK), a leading property developer in Hong Kong, has now announced an Offer, by way of a Scheme, from its founder, Joseph Lau, and his wife Chan Hoi Wan.


The consideration is $4.00/share, a 37.9% premium to last close, but an impressive 83.5% premium to the close on the last full trading day. The Offer price will NOT be increased.


Lau and Chan control 74.99% of the company. Disinterested shareholders comprise 21.41% of shares out, therefore the blocking stake at the forthcoming Court Meeting is 2.141% of shares out. 
The headcount test applies.


In Chinese Estates (127 HK): Potential Privatisation?, I expected a punchy premium (to the "undisturbed price") upwards of up 75%, or $3.82/share, to get this over the line. This has been exceeded. 
Optically, Lau and Chan appear to be getting Chinese Estates at a bargain. But the current realised plus unrealised losses on the Evergrande (3333 HK) holding is HK$10.4bn, which dramatically alters what is deemed to be book value, and therefore the implied valuation metric under the Offer.
This looks like a done deal and should trade tight to terms.







Chinese Estates (127 HK): $4.00/Share Offer

Hong Kong

Swire Properties Limited develops and manages commercial, retail, and residential properties. The Company's investment portfolio includes office and retail premises, and serviced apartments and other residential accommodation.

Hongkong Land is a major listed property investment, management and development group. 

The Group owns and manages more than 850,000 sq. m. of prime office and luxury retail property in key Asian cities, principally in Hong Kong, Singapore, Beijing and Jakarta.  The Group also has a number of high quality residential, commercial, and mixed-use projects under development in cities across Greater China and Southeast Asia.  In Singapore, its subsidiary, MCL Land, is a well-established residential developer.  

Hongkong Land Holdings Limited is incorporated in Bermuda and has a standard listing on the London Stock Exchange, with secondary listings in Bermuda and Singapore.  The Group’s assets and investments are managed from Hong Kong by Hongkong Land Limited.  Hongkong Land is a member of the Jardine Matheson Group.

Sino Land Company Limited, through its subsidiaries, develops and invests in properties, trades and invests in securities, and provides financing services. The Company also operates hotels and provides building management services.

Swire Pacific Limited operates as a holding company. The Company, through its subsidiaries, focuses on real estate, aviation, beverage, industrial, marine services, trading, and industrial businesses. Swire Pacific operates worldwide.

Hang Lung Properties Limited, through its subsidiaries, invests in, develops, and manages properties. The Company also manages parking lots. Hang Lung Properties serves customers in Hong Kong.

Henderson Land Development Company Limited, through its subsidiaries, develops, invests in, and manages properties. The Company also provides project management, construction, and finance services. In addition, Henderson Land Development operates department stores, hotels, and infrastructure business.

Tsim Sha Tsui Properties Limited, through its subsidiaries, develops, invests in, and sells properties.  The Company also provides management services, operates hotels, trades securities, and provides financing services.

CK Asset Holdings Limited operates real estate businesses. The Company provides real estate development, leasing, marketing, property management, and hotel serviced suite services domestically and internationally. CK Asset Holdings also operates real estate investment trust, aircraft leasing, and assets management businesses.

C&D International Investment Group Limited is a green building property development and management company based in Hong Kong.

Ayala Land is the largest property developer in the Philippines with a track record in developing large-scale, integrated, mixed-use, and sustainable estates. It offers a balanced and complementary mix of residential developments, shopping centers, offices, hotels and resorts, construction, property management and strategic investments.

Hulic Company, Limited. operates real estate business and marketable securities investment business.  The Company also conducts environment related businesses.

Godrej Properties, Ltd. is a real estate development company.

Oberoi Realty LTD., is a real estate development company operating in Mumbai, focused on premium developments. The Company's main focus is residential projects but they also have a diversified portfolio of projects covering segments of the real estate market, which target the upper end of the respective income or market segment.

Longfor Properties Co. Ltd. operates in the property development, property investment and property management businesses in China.

Jones Lang LaSalle Incorporated provides real estate and investment management services.  The Company serves multinationals, corporations, institutions, occupiers, and investors from offices in markets located around the world. Jones Lang provides services such as tenant representation, property management, agency leasing, finance, and valuations.

Phoenix Mills Ltd. is engaged, directly and through its subsidiaries and investments in the business of ownership, management, and development of large-format retail-led mixed use properties. The Company's properties include shopping, entertainment, commercial, residential, and hospitality properties. Phoenix Mills owns and operates High Street Phoenix Center in Mumbai.

DAITO TRUST CONSTRUCTION CO., LTD. operates building construction and real estate businesses.  The Company plans and constructs apartment and commercial buildings mainly for land owners.  Daito Trust Construction provides brokerage and maintenance services as well.

Vingroup Joint Stock Company operates as a real estate development company. The Company develops apartments, malls, hotels and resorts, health care, educational, convention center, amusement parks, and entertainment properties. Vingroup serves customers worldwide.

Prestige Estates Projects Ltd. develops real estate.  The Company builds residential projects including apartments, villas, plotted developments and integrated townships; commercial projects including corporate office buildings and technology parks; hotels and resorts; and retail buildings.

The Wharf (Holdings) Limited, through its subsidiaries, develops and invests in real estate properties. The Company also owns and manages hotels and operates logistics business. In addition, the Wharf operates telecommunication business, cable television, and Internet-related businesses.

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
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Wharf Holdings (4 HK)

HK Short Interest Weekly: Kuaishou, GCL, Haidilao

We analyzed the latest HK SFC report for aggregate short position as of Dec 2nd and highlight short interest changes in Kuaishou, GCL, Haidilao,...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Onewo Space-Tech Pre-IPO - Thoughts on Valuation

Onewo Space-Tech aims to raise upto US$2bn in its Hong Kong IPO. OST is a property management service provider primarily owned by China Vanke. In...

Sumeet Singh

Last Week in Event SPACE: Toshiba, Mapletree, Link Admin, Cayman's Headcount, Razer, Crown Resorts

The weekend is here! Pour yourself a coffee, grab a comfortable seat, and sift through a brief summary of insights on various events discussed...

David Blennerhassett

StubWorld: Buoyant Henderson As Hong Kong Eases Covid Rules

Henderson's stake in HKCG is a weak stub - accounting for ~47% of market cap, but ~14% of GAV. But I think Henderson has more to run here. Its P/B...

David Blennerhassett

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

HK Short Interest Weekly: Kuaishou, GCL, Haidilao

We analyzed the latest HK SFC report for aggregate short position as of Dec 2nd and highlight short interest changes in Kuaishou, GCL, Haidilao,...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Onewo Space-Tech Pre-IPO - Thoughts on Valuation

Onewo Space-Tech aims to raise upto US$2bn in its Hong Kong IPO. OST is a property management service provider primarily owned by China Vanke. In...

Sumeet Singh

Last Week in Event SPACE: Toshiba, Mapletree, Link Admin, Cayman's Headcount, Razer, Crown Resorts

The weekend is here! Pour yourself a coffee, grab a comfortable seat, and sift through a brief summary of insights on various events discussed...

David Blennerhassett

StubWorld: Buoyant Henderson As Hong Kong Eases Covid Rules

Henderson's stake in HKCG is a weak stub - accounting for ~47% of market cap, but ~14% of GAV. But I think Henderson has more to run here. Its P/B...

David Blennerhassett

Chinese Estates (127 HK): $4.00/Share Offer

There may be some pushback on pricing, but factoring in the Evergrande loss (real & unrealised), the Offer Price appears fair.

David Blennerhassett