Asia and Global Semiconductor and Tech Research

Andrew Lu

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<h2>Executive summary</h2><ul>
<li>DRAM spot price much stronger than NAND's in 4Q16: After over 10% hike in DRAM/NAND spot/contract price in 3Q16, we see another strong upward spot price trend (over 30% q/q rebound) for DRAM in 4Q16 but a muted NAND spot price. </li>
<li>
After TSMC/Intel guided 1-2% q/q sales decline and AMD guided 18% q/q drop in 4Q16 coupled with likely over 30% q/q iPhone shipment decline in 1Q17, the seasonal softness might mitigate DRAM/NAND spot price rebound starting late 4Q16 and drive a…</li>
</ul>

Executive summary
DRAM spot price much stronger than NAND's in 4Q16: After over 10% hike in DRAM/NAND spot/contract price in 3Q16, we see another strong upward spot price trend (over 30% q/q rebound) for DRAM in 4Q16 but a muted NAND spot price. 

After TSMC/Intel guided 1-2% q/q sales decline and AMD guided 18% q/q drop in 4Q16 coupled with likely over 30% q/q iPhone shipment decline in 1Q17, the seasonal softness might mitigate DRAM/NAND spot price rebound starting late 4Q16 and drive a…


Reasons Why DRAM Price Might Be Better than NAND in 2017

Korea / Special Sits, Pairs, Index Rebalancing, Clepsydra Capital

Sanghyun Park

Korea / Special Sits, Pairs, Index Rebalancing

Event-Driven

Why do some people believe that Samsung restructuring will take place much earlier than widely expected? These people believe Samsung will make an important restructuring announcement before end of this year.For this, Oct 18 is a very important day. This is the last day of the current parliamentary audit. What this means is that the main opposition Minjoo Party of Korea's of bills for economic democratization will be officially reviewed starting Oct 19 after the current parliamentary audit ends…

Why do some people believe that Samsung restructuring will take place much earlier than widely expected? These people believe Samsung will make an important restructuring announcement before end of this year.For this, Oct 18 is a very important day. This is the last day of the current parliamentary audit. What this means is that the main opposition Minjoo Party of Korea's of bills for economic democratization will be officially reviewed starting Oct 19 after the current parliamentary audit ends…

Why Some Believe Samsung Restructuring Will Happen Earlier

Thematic Investing in Tech and Media, CM Research

Cyrus Mewawalla

Thematic Investing in Tech and Media

Thematic TMT investing

CM Research

CM Research is an independent research house based in London, England. We provide global thematic research in the Technology, Media and Telecoms (TMT) sectors. 

Our focus is on disruptive technologies: how will they unfold; which industries will be impacted; and who will be the ultimate winners and losers. 

Our aim is to help investors predict share prices and corporate executives stay one step ahead of the technology trends that are shaping their industry. 

We research technology investment themes in detail and then feed the results into a scorecard system to quantify the impact of several conflicting themes on individual stocks. 

Recent themes covered include internet TV, the Internet of Things, Big Data, Mobile payments, crowdfunding, artificial intelligence, the cloud, software defined networking and Generation Hashtag.

We cover the top 500 global TMT stocks by market capitalisation and several technology start-ups and pre-IPO companies too. 

In 2015, CM Research analysts outperformed the Bloomberg Benchmark Analyst Index - which measures how good analysts are at predicting stock prices - by 7.1%.

In this report, we predict which technology companies will be targeted over the next two years, who is likely to acquire them and why.Some of the investment themes driving these deals include artificial intelligence, the internet of things, MedTech, 3D printing, internet TV, virtual and augmented reality, robotics, cloud computing and the race between the US and China to dominate the next generation of advanced technologies.

In this report, we predict which technology companies will be targeted over the next two years, who is likely to acquire them and why.Some of the investment themes driving these deals include artificial intelligence, the internet of things, MedTech, 3D printing, internet TV, virtual and augmented reality, robotics, cloud computing and the race between the US and China to dominate the next generation of advanced technologies.

Samsung was initially believed to have reflected about ₩1tril for Note 7 damage in its first interim 3Q16 OP guidance of ₩7.8tril. After Samsung stopped global sales of Note 7, my initial calculation was Samsung would have to reflect an additional cost of ₩1.5tril, which could be spread over multiple periods. Even if assuming the worst case scenario, Samsung's total cost of Note 7 cancellation would be ₩3tril at most, and this ₩3tril could be spread over the next four quarters. However, Samsung…

Samsung was initially believed to have reflected about ₩1tril for Note 7 damage in its first interim 3Q16 OP guidance of ₩7.8tril. After Samsung stopped global sales of Note 7, my initial calculation was Samsung would have to reflect an additional cost of ₩1.5tril, which could be spread over multiple periods. Even if assuming the worst case scenario, Samsung's total cost of Note 7 cancellation would be ₩3tril at most, and this ₩3tril could be spread over the next four quarters. However, Samsung…

Possible Explanations For Samsung's Big Bath in 3Q16 for Note 7 Mess - Still Maintain Positive View

Following is my rough calculation on Note 7 financial impact.Samsung has so far produced about 4.3 million units of Note 7. Of these 4.3 million units, about 1.8 million units have been actually sold and given to consumers. So, first the cost for 1.8 million units sold would be US$1bil, which is 1.8 million units times US$560 (cost for each unit to be refunded).<ul>
<li>Production cost: US$300</li>
<li>Refund handling fee at distributor: US$50</li>
<li>Free voucher and gift: US$50</li>
<li>US$300 + US$50 + US$50 = US$400</li>
<li>
1.8 million…</li>
</ul>

Following is my rough calculation on Note 7 financial impact.Samsung has so far produced about 4.3 million units of Note 7. Of these 4.3 million units, about 1.8 million units have been actually sold and given to consumers. So, first the cost for 1.8 million units sold would be US$1bil, which is 1.8 million units times US$560 (cost for each unit to be refunded).
Production cost: US$300
Refund handling fee at distributor: US$50
Free voucher and gift: US$50
US$300 + US$50 + US$50 = US$400

1.8 million…


Why Should We Buy Samsung? Note 7 Impact on OP Margins & Restructuring

South Korea

Samsung SDS Co., Ltd. provides information technology services, such as consulting and technical services. The Company also offers outsourcing services including application outsourcing, IT infrastructure outsourcing, and cloud computing.

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Samsung Sds (018260 KS)

Reasons Why DRAM Price Might Be Better than NAND in 2017

Executive summary DRAM spot price much stronger than NAND's in 4Q16: After over 10% hike in DRAM/NAND spot/contract price in 3Q16, we see another...

Andrew Lu

Why Some Believe Samsung Restructuring Will Happen Earlier

Why do some people believe that Samsung restructuring will take place much earlier than widely expected? These people believe Samsung will make an...

Sanghyun Park

Tech M&A Targets

In this report, we predict which technology companies will be targeted over the next two years, who is likely to acquire them and why.Some of the...

CM Research

Possible Explanations For Samsung's Big Bath in 3Q16 for Note 7 Mess - Still Maintain Positive View

Samsung was initially believed to have reflected about ₩1tril for Note 7 damage in its first interim 3Q16 OP guidance of ₩7.8tril. After Samsung...

Sanghyun Park

Why Should We Buy Samsung? Note 7 Impact on OP Margins & Restructuring

Following is my rough calculation on Note 7 financial impact.Samsung has so far produced about 4.3 million units of Note 7. Of these 4.3 million...

Sanghyun Park

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