Founder-CEO & Chief Analyst, Real Estate Foresight

Robert Ciemniak

Founder-CEO & Chief Analyst

Real Estate Foresight

Since 2012, REF has been helping investors with market research, project due diligence, and strategy development. This has ranged from detailed assessments and estimates on distressed developers' project portfolios to market due diligence on specific projects to macro-level questions linked to demand for commodities. The unique combination of the housing markets and developer data from data partner China Index Academy in Beijing, primary research, and technology-powered alternative data collection from public sources result in a valuable content set used in REF analytics and reports.

Predictive Analytics for China Property

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>China housing metrics for July and August remained weak, in line with our forecast from December data, but watch out for some major data twists</li>
<li>The new wave of policy easing responds to the re-weakening of the market since April, though the impact may not show quickly, as the Zhengzhou example illustrates</li>
<li>Cities are quick to implement the new rules, including Shenzhen, Chengdu, and Guangzhou in the past few days </li>
</ul>


China housing metrics for July and August remained weak, in line with our forecast from December data, but watch out for some major data twists
The new wave of policy easing responds to the re-weakening of the market since April, though the impact may not show quickly, as the Zhengzhou example illustrates
Cities are quick to implement the new rules, including Shenzhen, Chengdu, and Guangzhou in the past few days 


China Property - The Latest Signals In The Housing Markets: August 2023

<ul>
<li>A weekly curated selection of Chinese news articles and company announcements focused on developers in distress</li>
<li>We look for their deals, updates, specific project progress news ('local signals'), as well as relevant local research commentaries about the market</li>
<li>We do not verify the underlying data or provide any opinion, we only select and summarize the information; see direct links to sources</li>
</ul>


A weekly curated selection of Chinese news articles and company announcements focused on developers in distress
We look for their deals, updates, specific project progress news ('local signals'), as well as relevant local research commentaries about the market
We do not verify the underlying data or provide any opinion, we only select and summarize the information; see direct links to sources


China Property Developers In Distress - Weekly News & Announcements Tracker | 11-17 August 2023

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Equity Bottom-Up

Greentown Service Group / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>As China's property market melts down, shares of property management companies are following suit.</li>
<li>And there are increasing governance issues attached to these management units as a slew of questionable parent/subsidiary transactions unfold. </li>
<li>Valuations for property management companies are trading at multi-year lows. That trend is likely to continue.</li>
</ul>


As China's property market melts down, shares of property management companies are following suit.
And there are increasing governance issues attached to these management units as a slew of questionable parent/subsidiary transactions unfold. 
Valuations for property management companies are trading at multi-year lows. That trend is likely to continue.


China Property Management: Lacking Independence

Senior Credit Analyst, Lucror Analytics

Leonard Law, CFA

Senior Credit Analyst

High Yield Experts

Lucror Analytics

Lucror Analytics is a leading credit and ESG research specialist and a provider of technology solutions for differentiated fixed income strategies. Our roots are in bottom-up fundamental credit analysis with a specialization in high yield corporate credits from Europe, Asia and Latin America. We are one of few research specialists integrating ESG considerations with fundamental credit research through a dedicated ESG platform. Our ESG assessment covers five key criteria: Disclosure, E,S, & G Pillars, Controversies, ESG Impact on Credit and ESG Momentum.

Recognizing the importance and value-add of Factor Investing in fixed income, Lucror developed the Smart Quant Navigator (SQN), an intuitive platform that helps clients devise and implement factor-based strategies ranging from pure quant to active fundamental, with integrated ESG.

Our company has been at the forefront of developments in the fixed income markets, identifying opportunities and consistently delivering new products and value-adding solutions to clients. Lucror has close relationships with the largest and most reputable asset managers, family offices, hedge funds, investment and wealth managers globally.

Credit

The Chinese Property Weekly focuses on providing updates in the Chinese real-estate sector, including recent regulatory and company developments, top and bottom performers, rating actions, as well as a list of bond maturities in the next 30 days.

  The Chinese Property Weekly focuses on providing updates in the Chinese real-estate sector, including recent regulatory and company developments, top and bottom performers, rating actions, as well as a list of bond maturities in the next 30 days. 

Chinese Property Weekly - 11 March 2022 - Lucror Analytics

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>The pre-conditional Scheme from its founders and CVC for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/razer-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:24380:1" rel="noopener">Razer (1337 HK)</a> at $2.82/share, is a 55.8% premium to the undisturbed price, but below the 2017 IPO price of $3.88.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ck-hutchison-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:132:1" rel="noopener">CK Hutchison Holdings (1 HK)</a>'s implied stub and the simple ratio (CKH/ <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ck-infrastructure-holdings-l" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:163:1" rel="noopener">CK Infrastructure Holdings (1038 HK)</a>) are currently at an all-time low.</li>
<li>The local government is now getting practically involved in the resolution of the financial problems of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-evergrande-group" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:479:1" rel="noopener">Evergrande (3333 HK)</a>and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-evergrande-new-energy-vehicle-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:713:1" rel="noopener">Evergrande Auto (708 HK)</a>. </li>
</ul>


The pre-conditional Scheme from its founders and CVC for Razer (1337 HK) at $2.82/share, is a 55.8% premium to the undisturbed price, but below the 2017 IPO price of $3.88.

CK Hutchison Holdings (1 HK)'s implied stub and the simple ratio (CKH/ CK Infrastructure Holdings (1038 HK)) are currently at an all-time low.
The local government is now getting practically involved in the resolution of the financial problems of Evergrande (3333 HK)and Evergrande Auto (708 HK). 


Last Week in Event SPACE: Razer Inc, Evergrande Land/Auto, CK Hutchison, Grab SPAC

China

China Evergrande Group is an integrated residential property developer. The Company, through its subsidiaries, operates in property development, investment, management, finance, internet, health, culture, and tourism markets.

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Evergrande (3333 HK)

China Property - The Latest Signals In The Housing Markets: August 2023

China Property: We highlight the latest indicators for July and August for the new home markets in China, as well as the latest policy developments.

Robert Ciemniak

China Property Developers In Distress - Weekly News & Announcements Tracker | 11-17 August 2023

A weekly summary of a curated set of Chinese news articles/posts and company announcements focused on developers in distress.

Robert Ciemniak

China Property Management: Lacking Independence

Property management units are unlikely to be shielded from risks as their parent face funding issues. Valuations for property management companies...

David Blennerhassett

Chinese Property Weekly - 11 March 2022 - Lucror Analytics

The Chinese Property Weekly focuses on providing updates in the Chinese real-estate sector, including recent regulatory and company developments,...

Lucror Analytics

Last Week in Event SPACE: Razer Inc, Evergrande Land/Auto, CK Hutchison, Grab SPAC

The weekend is here! Pour yourself a coffee, grab a comfortable seat, and sift through a brief summary of insights on various events discussed...

David Blennerhassett

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