Asian Equities Analyst, Logistics & Transport, Tracking Traffic

Daniel Hellberg

Asian Equities Analyst, Logistics & Transport

Tracking Traffic

Focusing on Asian logistics, transportation, and travel companies

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Domestic and outbound Chinese air traffic continued to recover in April, but aircraft deployed on international routes continued to operate far below capacity</li>
<li>Headline numbers from the recent Labor Day holiday period show an increase in domestic travel activity to above 2019 levels, but spending per trip remains depressed</li>
<li>Tourism activity has increased dramatically compared to 2022, but five months after most Covid-19 restrictions were lifted there are few signs of stong demand for leisure travel</li>
</ul>


Domestic and outbound Chinese air traffic continued to recover in April, but aircraft deployed on international routes continued to operate far below capacity
Headline numbers from the recent Labor Day holiday period show an increase in domestic travel activity to above 2019 levels, but spending per trip remains depressed
Tourism activity has increased dramatically compared to 2022, but five months after most Covid-19 restrictions were lifted there are few signs of stong demand for leisure travel


Monthly Chinese Tourism Tracker | Recovery Continues | But Seats Stay Empty | (May 2023)

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jardine-cycle-carriage-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:347:1" rel="noopener">Jardine Cycle &amp; Carriage (JCNC SP)</a> is currently trading at a ~9% discount to NAV, around the narrowest since the post-Covid nadir in April 2020.</li>
<li>JCNC's recent results highlighted a marked improvement in its unlisted Vietnamese automotive ops. </li>
<li>Weakness in the Indonesian rupiah has taken some of the shine off <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/astra-international-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:46:1" rel="noopener">Astra International (ASII IJ)</a>'s strong sales growth. </li>
</ul>



Jardine Cycle &amp; Carriage (JCNC SP) is currently trading at a ~9% discount to NAV, around the narrowest since the post-Covid nadir in April 2020.
JCNC's recent results highlighted a marked improvement in its unlisted Vietnamese automotive ops. 
Weakness in the Indonesian rupiah has taken some of the shine off Astra International (ASII IJ)'s strong sales growth. 


<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jardine-matheson-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:19718:1" rel="noopener">Jardine Matheson Holdings (JM SP)</a>'s underlying net profit in FY21 was up 39% against 2020, and just 5% shy of 2019's level.</li>
<li>The latest US$250mn buyback program appears to have been completed.</li>
<li>Shares are down ~5% since the FY21 results. At a ~28% discount to NAV, JMH is inexpensive here. </li>
</ul>



Jardine Matheson Holdings (JM SP)'s underlying net profit in FY21 was up 39% against 2020, and just 5% shy of 2019's level.
The latest US$250mn buyback program appears to have been completed.
Shares are down ~5% since the FY21 results. At a ~28% discount to NAV, JMH is inexpensive here. 


Jardine Matheson (JM SP): Reloading The Buyback?

Research from SooChow CSSD Capital Markets (Asia), SCCM Asia Research

SCCM Asia Research

Research from SooChow CSSD Capital Markets (Asia)

Headquartered in Singapore, SooChow CSSD Capital Markets (Asia) is an investment bank focusing on emerging growth companies across Asia, providing a full suite of investment banking services, including corporate finance, mergers and acquisitions advisory, equity capital markets, institutional equities sales and trading and equities research.

SooChow CSSD Capital Markets (Asia)

<ul><li><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/uol-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:142" rel="noopener">UOL Group (UOL SP)</a> plans to launch Ang Mo Kio Avenue 1 in Jun22</li><li><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mandarin-oriental-intl-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:4773" rel="noopener">Mandarin Oriental Intl (MAND SP)</a> narrows FY21 loss to US$141.4m; 1H22 remains in red despite global travel improvements</li><li>Rising interest in Shophouses and boutique commercial spaces along East Coast Road</li></ul>

UOL Group (UOL SP) plans to launch Ang Mo Kio Avenue 1 in Jun22Mandarin Oriental Intl (MAND SP) narrows FY21 loss to US$141.4m; 1H22 remains in red despite global travel improvementsRising interest in Shophouses and boutique commercial spaces along East Coast Road

ASEAN Builder's Scoop (4Mar21) - UOL Launching AMK Ave 1 in Jun22

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jardine-matheson-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:19718:1" rel="noopener">Jardine Matheson Holdings (JM SP)</a> has <a href="https://links.sgx.com/FileOpen/JMH.ashx?App=Announcement&amp;FileID=693661" target="_blank" rel="noopener">announced</a> it intends to increase the amount of its share buyback programme announced on 30th September 2021 by US$250mn to US$500mn.</li>
<li>JMH has already acquired close to US$250mn of shares under the initial buyback. All shares repurchases will be canceled.</li>
<li>Separately, the appraisal rights proceedings for dissenting shareholders of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jardine-strategic-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15081:1" rel="noopener">Jardine Strategic Holdings (JS SP)</a> is now underway in the Supreme Court of Bermuda.</li>
</ul>



Jardine Matheson Holdings (JM SP) has announced it intends to increase the amount of its share buyback programme announced on 30th September 2021 by US$250mn to US$500mn.
JMH has already acquired close to US$250mn of shares under the initial buyback. All shares repurchases will be canceled.
Separately, the appraisal rights proceedings for dissenting shareholders of Jardine Strategic Holdings (JS SP) is now underway in the Supreme Court of Bermuda.


Matheson Doubles Buybacks As Strategic Dissentient Shareholders Make Their Case

Singapore

Mandarin Oriental International Limited is an owner and operator of luxury hotels, resorts, and residences. The Group now operates, or has under development, hotels in the Americas, Europe, Middle East, and North Africa. Mandarin Oriental International also operates, or has under development, residences at Mandarin Oriental.

Mandarin Oriental International (MAND SP)

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Mandarin Oriental International (MAND SP)

Monthly Chinese Tourism Tracker | Recovery Continues | But Seats Stay Empty | (May 2023)

In April domestic and international air traffic continued to improve from depressed pandemic levels, but there are growing signs that Chinese...

Tracking Traffic

JCNC Is Overstretched Vs. Astra

If you had set up the stub, I would be unwinding here. I'd look to reverse the stub as and when the current momentum reverses.

David Blennerhassett

Jardine Matheson (JM SP): Reloading The Buyback?

Given JMH's strong underlying performance and discount to NAV, another round of buybacks is feasible. Especially given management was consistently...

David Blennerhassett

ASEAN Builder's Scoop (4Mar21) - UOL Launching AMK Ave 1 in Jun22

MAND remains in red despite improvements; Rising shophouses interest in East Coast; ALI plans PHP100bn new launches; Phils expect Feb21 CPI rising...

SCCM Asia Research

Matheson Doubles Buybacks As Strategic Dissentient Shareholders Make Their Case

Matheson has announced it intends to increase the amount of its share buyback programme by US$250mn to US$500mn. Court proceedings for Strategic...

David Blennerhassett

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