Research from Superfluous Value, Superfluous Value

Superfluous Value

Research from Superfluous Value

Stock selection has rarely been as important as it is today. After a roaring decade for US markets and with signs of mania everywhere, the S&P 500 as over-priced as it has ever been.

But, there is better way. Superfluous Value is a contrarian, deep-dive into the markets forgotten by the 60/40 instos and indexing, momentum chasers. Where the hot money has long moved on, it leaves behind investments offering great safety and prospective returns.

I believe the 2020s will look diametrically opposite to the recent past, with Emerging Markets, the UK, Japan and commodities set to rip and I intend to be holding the best opportunities available as they do.

Please feel free to come along on the journey.

Contrarian Deep-Dive into the Markets

Equity Bottom-Up

Mandarin Oriental International / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>Mandarin owns the One Causeway Bay precinct which is likely worth more than the company’s current Enterprise Value ($2.4b) having recieved an offer of $3.8b for the site in 2017.</li><li>For those unfamiliar, this site is being massively re-developed into retail and office- not a hotel as might be expected given the company.</li><li>Mandarin is transitioning to a capital light hotel management model by selling its owned hotels and maintaining management contracts with the purchasers.</li></ul>

Mandarin owns the One Causeway Bay precinct which is likely worth more than the company’s current Enterprise Value ($2.4b) having recieved an offer of $3.8b for the site in 2017.For those unfamiliar, this site is being massively re-developed into retail and office- not a hotel as might be expected given the company.Mandarin is transitioning to a capital light hotel management model by selling its owned hotels and maintaining management contracts with the purchasers.

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

<ul>
<li>Hong Kong is - very gradually - rolling back Covid restrictions</li>
<li>That's a welcome relief for tourists, and for hospitality companies dependent on tourism. </li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mandarin-oriental-international-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:4773:1" rel="noopener">Mandarin Oriental International (MAND SP)</a> is trading cheap at 0.7x P/B against 1.8x on average (five years) pre-Covid.</li>
</ul>


Hong Kong is - very gradually - rolling back Covid restrictions
That's a welcome relief for tourists, and for hospitality companies dependent on tourism. 

Mandarin Oriental International (MAND SP) is trading cheap at 0.7x P/B against 1.8x on average (five years) pre-Covid.


Mandarin Oriental (MAND SP): Life Is Suite

Equity Analyst, LightStream Research

Oshadhi Kumarasiri

Equity Analyst

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

<ul>
<li>While traditional luxury brands may encounter challenges as affluent Chinese consumers shift to local high-end brands, there are still opportunities within small niches in the luxury sector.</li>
<li>Luxury travel, driven by trends like micro trips and the increasing number of High-Net-Worth Individuals, represents a potential area of growth in the luxury sector.</li>
<li>The thriving luxury travel market opens up investment potential in sectors such as luxury hotels and premium cosmetics.</li>
</ul>


While traditional luxury brands may encounter challenges as affluent Chinese consumers shift to local high-end brands, there are still opportunities within small niches in the luxury sector.
Luxury travel, driven by trends like micro trips and the increasing number of High-Net-Worth Individuals, represents a potential area of growth in the luxury sector.
The thriving luxury travel market opens up investment potential in sectors such as luxury hotels and premium cosmetics.


APAC Luxury Industry Series: Luxury Travel Shines Amid Challenges for Traditional Luxury Goods

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jardine-cycle-carriage-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:347:1" rel="noopener">Jardine Cycle &amp; Carriage (JCNC SP)</a>'s implied stub value is around its highest-ever level, dating back to 2004. </li>
<li>The simple ratio of JCNC/ <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/astra-international-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:46:1" rel="noopener">Astra International (ASII IJ)</a> is also the highest level outside the brief spikes post-Covid and during the 2008 GFC.</li>
<li>There is no apparent justification for the current valuation. And a takeover from <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jardine-matheson-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:19718:1" rel="noopener">Jardine Matheson Holdings (JM SP)</a> at these levels appears unrealistic. </li>
</ul>



Jardine Cycle &amp; Carriage (JCNC SP)'s implied stub value is around its highest-ever level, dating back to 2004. 
The simple ratio of JCNC/ Astra International (ASII IJ) is also the highest level outside the brief spikes post-Covid and during the 2008 GFC.
There is no apparent justification for the current valuation. And a takeover from Jardine Matheson Holdings (JM SP) at these levels appears unrealistic. 


<ul>
<li>In its 14th May quarterly review, MSCI <a href="https://app2.msci.com/eqb/gimi/stdindex/MSCI_May24_STPublicList.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">announced</a>  <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jardine-cycle-carriage-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:347:1" rel="noopener">Jardine Cycle &amp; Carriage (JCNC SP)</a> will be removed from its index effective 31 May. Shares closed down 4.3% on the 15th.</li>
<li>JCNC announced yesterday that <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jardine-matheson-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:19718:1" rel="noopener">Jardine Matheson Holdings (JM SP)</a> has lifted its stake to 81.058% from 79.866%. </li>
<li>JCNC is trading rich to its NAV. The simple ratio (JCNC/<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/astra-international-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:46:1" rel="noopener">Astra International (ASII IJ)</a>) is around its highest level outside the 2008 GFC. A takeover from parent Matheson is unlikely.</li>
</ul>


In its 14th May quarterly review, MSCI announced  Jardine Cycle &amp; Carriage (JCNC SP) will be removed from its index effective 31 May. Shares closed down 4.3% on the 15th.
JCNC announced yesterday that Jardine Matheson Holdings (JM SP) has lifted its stake to 81.058% from 79.866%. 
JCNC is trading rich to its NAV. The simple ratio (JCNC/Astra International (ASII IJ)) is around its highest level outside the 2008 GFC. A takeover from parent Matheson is unlikely.


Jardines Bumps JCNC Stake Post MSCI Deletion

Singapore

Mandarin Oriental International Limited is an owner and operator of luxury hotels, resorts, and residences. The Group now operates, or has under development, hotels in the Americas, Europe, Middle East, and North Africa. Mandarin Oriental International also operates, or has under development, residences at Mandarin Oriental.

Mandarin Oriental International (MAND SP)

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Mandarin Oriental International (MAND SP)

Mandarin Oriental: Don't Lose Money

Mandarin owns the One Causeway Bay precinct which is likely worth more than the company’s current Enterprise Value ($2.4b) having recieved an offer...

Superfluous Value

Mandarin Oriental (MAND SP): Life Is Suite

Mandarin Oriental is trading cheap at 0.7x P/B against 1.8x on average (5 years) pre-Covid. Business will continue to improve from here. The...

David Blennerhassett

APAC Luxury Industry Series: Luxury Travel Shines Amid Challenges for Traditional Luxury Goods

Luxury travel, driven by trends like micro trips and the increasing number of High-Net-Worth Individuals, represents a potential area of growth in...

Oshadhi Kumarasiri

JCNC's Logic-Defying Valuation

There is no apparent justification for the current level. Expect Matheson to chip away at minorities. But a full-blown Offer appears unrealistic....

David Blennerhassett

Jardines Bumps JCNC Stake Post MSCI Deletion

Jardine Matheson clears 83% in JCNC, up from ~78% at the beginning of the year. I see JCNC's NAV PREMIUM at 17%, down from a recent high of 29%....

David Blennerhassett

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