Founder of Antler Capital

Stanley Tsai, CFA

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>We welcome the regulators' formalization of financial asset classifications. This will gradually remove regulatory arbitrage and pave the way for further bank reintermediation.</li>
<li>The new rules will likely have limited impacts on bond holdings that have active secondary markets, but illiquid debt investment plans will come under more intense regulatory and auditor scrutiny.</li>
<li>We see an impact of 10-15bp on the listed banks' reported NPL ratios. That said, a handful of banks may be at risk of capital shortages if the environment worsens. </li>
</ul>


We welcome the regulators' formalization of financial asset classifications. This will gradually remove regulatory arbitrage and pave the way for further bank reintermediation.
The new rules will likely have limited impacts on bond holdings that have active secondary markets, but illiquid debt investment plans will come under more intense regulatory and auditor scrutiny.
We see an impact of 10-15bp on the listed banks' reported NPL ratios. That said, a handful of banks may be at risk of capital shortages if the environment worsens. 


Chinese Banks: New Asset Classification Rules | You Can Run but You Can't Hide

Equity Bottom-Up

People's Insurance (PICC) / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>To build on our earlier work on the insurance space -- and as we search for beta-neutral relative value plays -- we look at PICC Group-H's SOTP valuation.</li>
<li>The group's life and health business has historically traded at a steep implicit discount to China Life-H, perhaps deservedly so. But price dislocations do occur from time to time.</li>
<li>We share our cheat sheet on how we approach these opportunities, which are often good for a quick 10% trade. As usual, we highlight the potential risks as well.</li>
</ul>


To build on our earlier work on the insurance space -- and as we search for beta-neutral relative value plays -- we look at PICC Group-H's SOTP valuation.
The group's life and health business has historically traded at a steep implicit discount to China Life-H, perhaps deservedly so. But price dislocations do occur from time to time.
We share our cheat sheet on how we approach these opportunities, which are often good for a quick 10% trade. As usual, we highlight the potential risks as well.


PICC Group / PICC P&C Pair: A Cheat Sheet to Improve Your Batting Average

PICC Property & Casualty H / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>PICC P&amp;C was a shelter for investors in 2022, as its earnings were largely shielded from the pandemic. However, momentum has shifted in favor of the rest of the sector.</li>
<li>As the reopening story tails off, we expect the stock's performance to recouple to the broader H-Financials index. </li>
<li>Valuation is undemanding, but the same can be said of almost any other stock in the space. If the HKD7.25/share resistance level breaks, we may see a major correction.</li>
</ul>


PICC P&amp;C was a shelter for investors in 2022, as its earnings were largely shielded from the pandemic. However, momentum has shifted in favor of the rest of the sector.
As the reopening story tails off, we expect the stock's performance to recouple to the broader H-Financials index. 
Valuation is undemanding, but the same can be said of almost any other stock in the space. If the HKD7.25/share resistance level breaks, we may see a major correction.


PICC P&C (2328 HK): Performance Recoupling; Breaking Support at HKD7.25?

<ul>
<li>The Jan. PMI readings corroborate what investors had already known over the break. But it is noteworthy that SMEs appear much less upbeat than large corporations.  </li>
<li>SMEs account for 60% of GDP and an even higher proportion of job creation. Policy support has been keeping many of them afloat throughout the pandemic. </li>
<li>As the deadline on the PBOC's SME support program is fast approaching, small regional banks may bear the brunt of the impact on the financial system.</li>
</ul>


The Jan. PMI readings corroborate what investors had already known over the break. But it is noteworthy that SMEs appear much less upbeat than large corporations.  
SMEs account for 60% of GDP and an even higher proportion of job creation. Policy support has been keeping many of them afloat throughout the pandemic. 
As the deadline on the PBOC's SME support program is fast approaching, small regional banks may bear the brunt of the impact on the financial system.


China's Micro Loan Market: Key Takeaways from the Jan PMI

APAC IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Ethan Aw

APAC IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Equity Capital Markets

Alibaba Group Holding  / Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>In this note, we will take a look at bookrunner performance for ASEAN IPOs from 2019-2022. </li>
<li>The following dataset includes all ASEAN IPOs above US$100m for the period of Calendar Years 2019-2022, which amounted to a total of <strong>41 deals.</strong>
</li>
<li>The deals you see in this note are based on our historical IPO tracker. Feel free to drop us a message for additional information on any of these IPOs.</li>
</ul>


In this note, we will take a look at bookrunner performance for ASEAN IPOs from 2019-2022. 
The following dataset includes all ASEAN IPOs above US$100m for the period of Calendar Years 2019-2022, which amounted to a total of 41 deals.

The deals you see in this note are based on our historical IPO tracker. Feel free to drop us a message for additional information on any of these IPOs.


Aequitas ASEAN IPOs Bookrunner Performance (2019-2022)

China

Haitong Securities Co., Ltd. offers securities services. The Company provides securities brokerage, asset management, securities investment, share transfer agency, and capital intermediary services. Haitong Securities focuses on  online brokerage, wealth management, and institutional investors.

Haitong Securities Co Ltd (A) (600837 CH)

Huatai Securities Co., Ltd. provides financial company. The Company provides securities brokerage services, research consulting services, investment banking and direct investment services, fixed-income services and asset management services.

China Merchants Securities Co., Ltd. provides securities services. The Company offers securities brokerage, securities investment consulting, securities underwriting, and other services. China Merchants Securities also operates investment management.

China Merchants Securities Co Ltd (A) (600999 CH)

CSC Financial Co., Ltd. provides investment management services. The Company offers investment banking, wealth management, and trading and institutional client services. CSC Financial conducts its business in Hong Kong.

Guotai Junan Securities Co.,Ltd. provides financial services. The Company offers corporate finance, fixed income securities, asset management, risk management, and other services. Guotai Junan Securities Company serves clients throughout China.

GF Securities Co Ltd. is a securities firm. The Company offers investment banking services including equity and bond underwriting, mergers and acquisitions consulting, financial consulting, brokerage services, and asset management services.

Guosen Securities Co.,Ltd offers securities services. The Company provides securities brokerage, securities investment, securities consulting, and other services. Guosen Securities provides its services throughout China.

Shenwan Hongyuan Group Co., Ltd. provides securities services. The Company offers securities brokerage, securities investment consulting, securities investment fund agency, securities asset management, and other services. Shenwan Hongyuan Group provides services in China.

China Galaxy Securities Co., Ltd. provides securities services. The Company provides securities underwriting, securities brokerage, securities investment advisory, securities transaction, and other services. China Galaxy Securities provides its services throughout China.

Founder Securities Company Limited's major business includes securities brokerage, securities investment consulting, securities trading, financial advisory on securities investment and trading activities, proprietary trading, securities asset management, investment fund distribution, margin business, and provide intermediate agency services for Founder Futures Limited.

State Street Corporation services institutional investors and manages financial assets worldwide.  The Company's products and services include custody, accounting, administration, daily pricing, international exchange services, cash management, financial asset management, securities lending, and investment advisory services.

Tradeweb Markets Inc. builds and operates electronic marketplaces for rates, credit, equities/ETFs and money markets. The company serves institutional, wholesale and retail clients in 62 countries including large global asset managers, insurance companies, central banks, financial advisory firms, proprietary trading firms, hedge funds, banks and dealers.

Northern Trust Corporation is a financial holding company that provides investment management, asset and fund administration, fiduciary, and banking solutions for corporations, institutions, and affluent individuals. Northern Trust's banking operations are its primary operations.

LPL Financial Holdings, Inc. offers technology, brokerage and investment advisory services through business relationships with all types of financial advisors. Through proprietary technology, custody and clearing platforms, the Company offers access to financial products and services that enable them to provide financial advice and brokerage services to retail investors.

Raymond James Financial, Inc. provides financial services to individuals, corporations, and municipalities through its subsidiary investment firms. The Company operates throughout the United States, Canada and overseas.

T. Rowe Price Group Inc. is a financial services holding company. The Company, through its subsidiaries, provides investment advisory services to individual and institutional investors. T. Rowe manages a broad range of U.S. and international stock, blended asset, bond, and money market mutual funds and other investment portfolios.

Cboe Global Markets, Inc. operates a marketplace for the trading of standardized, listed options on equity securities. The Company is recognized for its role in the trading of options on individual equities, market indexes and exchange-traded funds, their suite of products, their markets and their hybrid trading model.

Brookfield Asset Management Ltd. operates as an investment management firm. The Company focuses on property development, renewable energy, infrastructure, insurance, and private equity. Brookfield Asset Management serves customers worldwide.

Yuanta Financial Holding Co., Ltd. is a holding company. Its main businesses include brokerage, margin financing, domestic and overseas issuance, financial and M&A advisory, primary listings, corporate financial, securities underwriting and placements, etc. The company also holds the leading position in the derivatives business.

Daiwa Securities Group Inc. is a holding company. The Group provides a comprehensive financial services including dealing, brokerage, underwriting, and distribution of securities.  Other services are research & systems development, custody service, and asset management. Daiwa has subsidiaries in US, Europe, Asia, and Middle East.

CITIC Securities Co., Ltd. provides securities brokerage, trading, underwriting, investment banking, asset management, and investment consulting services.

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Citic Securities (H) (6030 HK)

Chinese Banks: New Asset Classification Rules | You Can Run but You Can't Hide

New asset classification rules have officially been announced. We see this as a long-term positive for the sector as regulators continue to bring...

Stanley Tsai, CFA

PICC Group / PICC P&C Pair: A Cheat Sheet to Improve Your Batting Average

PICC Group / PICC P&C are an interesting pair that often provides investors with short windows for relative value trades. From the group's SOTP...

Stanley Tsai, CFA

PICC P&C (2328 HK): Performance Recoupling; Breaking Support at HKD7.25?

The long PICC P&C / short the rest of H-share financials trade began to unwind in Oct 2022. As the reopening story tails off, we expect the stock's...

Stanley Tsai, CFA

China's Micro Loan Market: Key Takeaways from the Jan PMI

For the most part, the Jan PMI gauges were in line with investor expectations, although the more pessimistic SME sector may be a cause for concern...

Stanley Tsai, CFA

Aequitas ASEAN IPOs Bookrunner Performance (2019-2022)

In this note, we will take a look at bookrunner performance for ASEAN IPOs from 2019-2022 which includes all ASEAN IPOs above US$100m, amounting...

Ethan Aw

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

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