Blue Lotus Research Institute

Andy Fu

China growth and global non-US Internet equities

Blue Lotus Research is a Hong Kong Type 4 Licensed investment advisory firm focusing on Chinese growth equities and global non-US Internet equities

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Consumption subsidies in China has been muted in the 2020-2024 period, compared to practices in 2009-2012. We believe it reflects different thought of Chinese government at these two times;</li>
<li>Past data has suggested that consumption subsidies are effective. We expect consumer subsidies of ~RMB 50bn to be issued in C2H24 to revive consumption;</li>
<li>An even bigger consumer stimulus of ~RMB 200bn might be issued in 2025, and we believe a consumption tax reform might be one the permanent fixes for the purpose.</li>
</ul>


Consumption subsidies in China has been muted in the 2020-2024 period, compared to practices in 2009-2012. We believe it reflects different thought of Chinese government at these two times;
Past data has suggested that consumption subsidies are effective. We expect consumer subsidies of ~RMB 50bn to be issued in C2H24 to revive consumption;
An even bigger consumer stimulus of ~RMB 200bn might be issued in 2025, and we believe a consumption tax reform might be one the permanent fixes for the purpose.


How to Stimulate China's Consumption, Part IV：Consumption Voucher Is Effective

Blue Lotus Non US Internet research, Blue Lotus Research Institute

Ying Pan

Blue Lotus Non US Internet research

<ul>
<li>PDD US/BABA US/JD US/VIPS US/3690 HK: NBS publishes social retail consumption data for June 2024 (-/+)</li>
<li>1024 HK: Kuaishou Releases First Fully AI-Generated Micro-Drama, Receives Positive Reviews.（+）</li>
<li>BABA US/PDD US/1519 HK/ZTO US: Weekly parcel volume shows 26% y-o-y growth (+)</li>
</ul>


PDD US/BABA US/JD US/VIPS US/3690 HK: NBS publishes social retail consumption data for June 2024 (-/+)
1024 HK: Kuaishou Releases First Fully AI-Generated Micro-Drama, Receives Positive Reviews.（+）
BABA US/PDD US/1519 HK/ZTO US: Weekly parcel volume shows 26% y-o-y growth (+)


[Blue Lotus Daily-TMT Update]:PDD US/BABA US/JD US/VIPS/3690HK/1024 HK/1519HK/ZTO/TCOM/NTES/BILI/

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Sumeet Singh

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Equity Capital Markets

Kokusai Electric  / Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>Aequitas Research's weekly update on the IPOs, placements, lockup expiry and other ECM linked events that were covered by the team over the past week.</li>
<li>On the IPO front, there were a number of listing in the past week, most of which performed as per our expectations.</li>
<li>On the placement front, Japan continued to dominate the ECM flows.</li>
</ul>


Aequitas Research's weekly update on the IPOs, placements, lockup expiry and other ECM linked events that were covered by the team over the past week.
On the IPO front, there were a number of listing in the past week, most of which performed as per our expectations.
On the placement front, Japan continued to dominate the ECM flows.


ECM Weekly (15th July 2024) - Kokusai, Wiwynn, Kelun-Biotech, Timee, Shift Up, Sanil, Avanse

<ul>
<li>PDD US/META US: Temu continues to be the most downloaded app in the US (+)</li>
<li>PDD US : PDD launching new ad-tool to replace previous tools (+)</li>
<li>700 HK: Tencent's Third-Person Shooter Game &lt;Synced&gt; Announces Termination of Service on September 9th (-)</li>
</ul>


PDD US/META US: Temu continues to be the most downloaded app in the US (+)
PDD US : PDD launching new ad-tool to replace previous tools (+)
700 HK: Tencent's Third-Person Shooter Game &lt;Synced&gt; Announces Termination of Service on September 9th (-)


[Blue Lotus Daily-TMT Update]:PDD US/META/700 HK/NTES/BIDU/3690 HK/JD/DADA/DDL/002024 CH/SHEIN/BABA

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>The review cutoff date for the September rebalance of the HSIII was 28 June. The changes will be announced on 16 August and become effective after the close 6 September.</li>
<li>There could be 3 changes to the index with some inclusions driven by potential addition to the Hang Seng Composite Index. That could lead to buying via Southbound Stock Connect.</li>
<li>Capping will result in passives buying <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kuaishou-technology" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29725:1" rel="noopener">Kuaishou Technology (1024 HK)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jd-com-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29043:1" rel="noopener">JD.com (9618 HK)</a> while selling <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/meituan" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26970:1" rel="noopener">Meituan (3690 HK)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tencent-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26:1" rel="noopener">Tencent (700 HK)</a>.</li>
</ul>


The review cutoff date for the September rebalance of the HSIII was 28 June. The changes will be announced on 16 August and become effective after the close 6 September.
There could be 3 changes to the index with some inclusions driven by potential addition to the Hang Seng Composite Index. That could lead to buying via Southbound Stock Connect.
Capping will result in passives buying Kuaishou Technology (1024 HK) and JD.com (9618 HK) while selling Meituan (3690 HK) and Tencent (700 HK).


Hang Seng Internet & IT Index (HSIII) Rebalance Preview: Three Adds/Deletes & Capping Changes

China

JD.com Inc is an online direct sales company in China.  The Company offers a wide selection of products through its website and mobile applications.  JD.com sells appliances, computers, digital products, communication products, garments, books, and household items to consumers and vendors.

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
Market Cap (USDm)	0.00
P/E	0.00
Dividend (Yield)	0.00

JD.com Inc (ADR) (JD US)

How to Stimulate China's Consumption, Part IV：Consumption Voucher Is Effective

China's consumption subsidies have been quite conservative but actually effective. We expect more subsidies in 2H24 and far more in 2025. We...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

[Blue Lotus Daily-TMT Update]:PDD US/BABA US/JD US/VIPS/3690HK/1024 HK/1519HK/ZTO/TCOM/NTES/BILI/

NBS releases social retail consumption data for June 2024, Kuaishou's AI-generated micro-drama receives positive reviews, and weekly parcel volume...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

ECM Weekly (15th July 2024) - Kokusai, Wiwynn, Kelun-Biotech, Timee, Shift Up, Sanil, Avanse

Aequitas Research's weekly update on the IPOs, placements, lockup expiry and other ECM linked events that were covered by the team over the past week.

Sumeet Singh

[Blue Lotus Daily-TMT Update]:PDD US/META/700 HK/NTES/BIDU/3690 HK/JD/DADA/DDL/002024 CH/SHEIN/BABA

Temu remains popular in the US, PDD introduces new ad-tool, Tencent's game to end service on September 9th.JD launches Dutch-style auction.

Blue Lotus Research Institute

Hang Seng Internet & IT Index (HSIII) Rebalance Preview: Three Adds/Deletes & Capping Changes

There could be 3 changes for the HSIII in September. The passive buying on the adds is small while selling on the deletes is much larger. Lock-up...

Brian Freitas

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

How to Stimulate China's Consumption, Part IV：Consumption Voucher Is Effective

​China's consumption subsidies have been quite conservative but actually effective. We expect more subsidies in 2H24 and far more in 2025. We...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

[Blue Lotus Daily-TMT Update]:PDD US/BABA US/JD US/VIPS/3690HK/1024 HK/1519HK/ZTO/TCOM/NTES/BILI/

​NBS releases social retail consumption data for June 2024, Kuaishou's AI-generated micro-drama receives positive reviews, and weekly parcel volume...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

ECM Weekly (15th July 2024) - Kokusai, Wiwynn, Kelun-Biotech, Timee, Shift Up, Sanil, Avanse

Aequitas Research's weekly update on the IPOs, placements, lockup expiry and other ECM linked events that were covered by the team over the past week.

Sumeet Singh

[Blue Lotus Daily-TMT Update]:PDD US/META/700 HK/NTES/BIDU/3690 HK/JD/DADA/DDL/002024 CH/SHEIN/BABA

​Temu remains popular in the US, PDD introduces new ad-tool, Tencent's game to end service on September 9th.JD launches Dutch-style auction.

Blue Lotus Research Institute

Hang Seng Internet & IT Index (HSIII) Rebalance Preview: Three Adds/Deletes & Capping Changes

There could be 3 changes for the HSIII in September. The passive buying on the adds is small while selling on the deletes is much larger. Lock-up...

Brian Freitas

China's consumption subsidies have been quite conservative but actually effective. We expect more subsidies in 2H24 and far more in 2025. We...

NBS releases social retail consumption data for June 2024, Kuaishou's AI-generated micro-drama receives positive reviews, and weekly parcel volume...

Temu remains popular in the US, PDD introduces new ad-tool, Tencent's game to end service on September 9th.JD launches Dutch-style auction.