Research and consultancy, Tabbush Report

Daniel Tabbush

Research and consultancy

Tabbush Report

We provide research and consultancy on Asian banks. Our focus is on what we call “Asian bank research, without the noise.” We are interested in the most critical swing-factors for banks, the NPL and credit cycle, and where we believe there is a gap between perception and reality. We often focus on the less studied components of bank financial statements.  Our research is highly thematic, sometimes examining unlisted banks and companies as a window on mainstream banks. 

Being independent allows us to look at smaller banks, often overlooked by others. Analysis of BIS bank guidelines in the context of Asia, is also a focal point, while we also analyze global banks operating in the region. We use what we believe is the most comprehensive, reliable financials database, SNL Financial. S&P Capital IQ augments our database, with corporate data and CEIC, with economics. 

Asian bank research, without the noise.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Domestic credit growth in Hong Kong weakened further in latest monthly release at -2.2% YoY. Weekly Centa City Leading Index grinds lower, a more HFD point relevant to credit</li>
<li>The acceleration in domestic credit growth in Indonesia is unique, where growth is up to +11.2% YoY in most recent month vs +5.2% YoY in the same month last year  </li>
<li>We remain concerned about credit metrics for HK's banks given contracting growth, worsening property, which is collateral. Many HK banks have done little in provisioning </li>
</ul>


Domestic credit growth in Hong Kong weakened further in latest monthly release at -2.2% YoY. Weekly Centa City Leading Index grinds lower, a more HFD point relevant to credit
The acceleration in domestic credit growth in Indonesia is unique, where growth is up to +11.2% YoY in most recent month vs +5.2% YoY in the same month last year  
We remain concerned about credit metrics for HK's banks given contracting growth, worsening property, which is collateral. Many HK banks have done little in provisioning 


Asia Credit - HK Weakens More, Indonesia, Taiwan Remain Strong, and Improving

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>It's the largest bank by assets in Indonesia, but its loan growth is about 2x the country aggregate growth rate. </li>
<li>NPL decline is stronger than most all banks in the country over the past few years, implications for credit costs are positive. </li>
<li>Boring old costs should not be ignored, especially where they are driving radical expansion of ROA. </li>
</ul>


It's the largest bank by assets in Indonesia, but its loan growth is about 2x the country aggregate growth rate. 
NPL decline is stronger than most all banks in the country over the past few years, implications for credit costs are positive. 
Boring old costs should not be ignored, especially where they are driving radical expansion of ROA. 


Bank Mandiri - All Cylinders Firing Strong

Financials & FinTech research, Galliano’s Financials Research

Victor Galliano

Financials & FinTech research

Financials & FinTech, EM & Developed Markets

Galliano’s Financials Research

Galliano's Financials Research provides fundamental research in Emerging Markets financials, including FinTech, as well as financials in select Developed Markets.

The investment style applied is generally value oriented, although Growth At Reasonable Price (GARP) strategies can also be used where appropriate. 

Our investment research approach aim is often contrarian, looking to capitalise on overly sceptical or optimistic consensus views. In terms of valuation techniques, the focus is on PBV ratio to ROE, PE multiples and dividend yield, as well as the application of PEG ratios and, where appropriate, Sum of the Parts (SOTP) valuations.

<ul>
<li>Bank Mandiri is our top pick for its quality attributes, its premium and growing pre- and post-provision returns; Mandiri provides a better valuations to returns mix than Bank Central Asia</li>
<li>Bank Negara is the value pick with its low PE multiples, its attractive PEG ratio, whilst also improving pre- and post-provision returns with cost of risk well controlled</li>
<li>Bank Rakyat registered worsening pre- and post-provision returns in 4Q23, with cost of risk worsening; this reflects its heavily MSME focused loan mix which keeps structural cost of risk high</li>
</ul>


Bank Mandiri is our top pick for its quality attributes, its premium and growing pre- and post-provision returns; Mandiri provides a better valuations to returns mix than Bank Central Asia
Bank Negara is the value pick with its low PE multiples, its attractive PEG ratio, whilst also improving pre- and post-provision returns with cost of risk well controlled
Bank Rakyat registered worsening pre- and post-provision returns in 4Q23, with cost of risk worsening; this reflects its heavily MSME focused loan mix which keeps structural cost of risk high


Indonesian Banks Screener; Mandiri Is Our Top Pick on Quality and Return Trends

India BFSI - Long-Short - Equity Research Analyst

Raj S, CA, CFA

Artoval Advisors

Art’o’val stands for Art of Valuation. Artoval Advisors LLP is a professionally run advisory firm catering to various financial advisory services including Valuation, Investment Research, Training, Accounting, CFO Services and other ancillary services.

We are passionate about what we do and strongly believe in working with our clients as their extended teams. With Artoval Advisors as their trusted partner, our clients find it easy to achieve efficiency in service delivery without compromising on quality.

True Art of Valuation

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bank-mandiri-persero-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:441:1" rel="noopener">BMRI</a> is more profitable than <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bank-negara-indonesia-persero" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8285:1" rel="noopener">BBNI</a>, less cyclical than <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bank-rakyat-indonesia-persero" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:484:1" rel="noopener">BBRI</a>  and less expensive than <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bank-central-asia-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:440:1" rel="noopener">BBCA</a>. This combination makes it an attractive play on the Indonesia credit growth story.</li>
<li>BMRI's FY23 results are a strong beat with industry-leading loan growth and strong ROE; BMRI also has the potential to aggressively grow its retail portfolio which still is likely under-appreciated</li>
<li>BMRI still trades at a discount to BBRI and has the potential to re-rate by another 20% in the near term, apart from the compounding driven by strong loan growth.</li>
</ul>



BMRI is more profitable than BBNI, less cyclical than BBRI  and less expensive than BBCA. This combination makes it an attractive play on the Indonesia credit growth story.
BMRI's FY23 results are a strong beat with industry-leading loan growth and strong ROE; BMRI also has the potential to aggressively grow its retail portfolio which still is likely under-appreciated
BMRI still trades at a discount to BBRI and has the potential to re-rate by another 20% in the near term, apart from the compounding driven by strong loan growth.


BMRI IJ Initiation: Growth at Reasonable Price!

ASEAN Insight Provider, CrossASEAN Research

Angus Mackintosh

ASEAN Insight Provider

CrossASEAN Research

At CrossASEAN Research we strive to produce unbiased and differentiated on the ground insights on companies across South East Asia. Our Research is produced for the most part after face to face meetings and conversations with company management to dig deep into the long term vision and strategy of the companies we cover. We seek to deliver investable and actionable themes on sectors and markets across SE Asia, often in collaboration with other Insight Providers across the region, pooling the vast experience of the analysts within the Smartkarma Ecosystem. We also offer bespoke work and tailor made trips for our clients. 

Insights across South East Asia

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bank-mandiri-persero-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:441:1" rel="noopener">Bank Mandiri (BMRI IJ)</a> stood out from its peers with higher loan growth and lower cost of credit with PPOP growth of +17.3% YoY and its ROE reaching 23%. </li>
<li>The bank experienced a slight decline in NIM in 4Q2023 but asset quality remains solid and its digital initiatives continue to reduce costs and attract new users.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bank-mandiri-persero-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:441:1" rel="noopener">Bank Mandiri</a>'s guidance for 2024 is more positive than peers for loan growth, as it continues to push out its value chain lending strategy into higher-yielding segments. Valuations remain attractive.</li>
</ul>



Bank Mandiri (BMRI IJ) stood out from its peers with higher loan growth and lower cost of credit with PPOP growth of +17.3% YoY and its ROE reaching 23%. 
The bank experienced a slight decline in NIM in 4Q2023 but asset quality remains solid and its digital initiatives continue to reduce costs and attract new users.

Bank Mandiri's guidance for 2024 is more positive than peers for loan growth, as it continues to push out its value chain lending strategy into higher-yielding segments. Valuations remain attractive.


Bank Mandiri (BMRI IJ) - Setting the Pace in 2024

Indonesia

PT Bank Mandiri (Persero) Tbk is formed by the merger of four state-owned banks, namely Pt Bank Bumi Daya, PT Bank Dagang Negara, PT Bank Ekspor Import Indonesia (Bank Exim), PT Bank Pembangunan Indonesia (Bank Bapindo). The Bank operates in the commercial banking services.

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Bank Mandiri Persero (BMRI IJ)

Asia Credit - HK Weakens More, Indonesia, Taiwan Remain Strong, and Improving

Domestic credit growth HFD shows weakening figures in Hong Kong, far better figures and strong in Indonesia, and still strong, rising in Taiwan....

Daniel Tabbush

Bank Mandiri - All Cylinders Firing Strong

BMRI reveals cyclical and structural strength to such as a degree that its ROA is highest in its history. Loan growth, NPL decline, lower operating...

Daniel Tabbush

Indonesian Banks Screener; Mandiri Is Our Top Pick on Quality and Return Trends

Mandiri is our quality top pick with better valuations to returns mix than BCA, value pick Negara has low PE ratios and improving returns....

Victor Galliano

BMRI IJ Initiation: Growth at Reasonable Price!

BMRI is a profitable, less cyclical, and inexpensive option compared to other Indonesian banks, making it an attractive investment. We also believe...

Raj S, CA, CFA

Bank Mandiri (BMRI IJ) - Setting the Pace in 2024

Bank Mandiri's guidance for 2024 is more positive than peers for loan growth, as it continues to push out is value-chain lending strategy into...

Angus Mackintosh

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Asia Credit - HK Weakens More, Indonesia, Taiwan Remain Strong, and Improving

Domestic credit growth HFD shows weakening figures in Hong Kong, far better figures and strong in Indonesia, and still strong, rising in Taiwan....

Daniel Tabbush

Bank Mandiri - All Cylinders Firing Strong

BMRI reveals cyclical and structural strength to such as a degree that its ROA is highest in its history. Loan growth, NPL decline, lower operating...

Daniel Tabbush

Indonesian Banks Screener; Mandiri Is Our Top Pick on Quality and Return Trends

​Mandiri is our quality top pick with better valuations to returns mix than BCA, value pick Negara has low PE ratios and improving returns....

Victor Galliano

BMRI IJ Initiation: Growth at Reasonable Price!

BMRI is a profitable, less cyclical, and inexpensive option compared to other Indonesian banks, making it an attractive investment. We also believe...

Raj S, CA, CFA

Bank Mandiri (BMRI IJ) - Setting the Pace in 2024

Bank Mandiri's guidance for 2024 is more positive than peers for loan growth, as it continues to push out is value-chain lending strategy into...

Angus Mackintosh

Mandiri is our quality top pick with better valuations to returns mix than BCA, value pick Negara has low PE ratios and improving returns....