Chief Economist & Political Strategist, CrossASEAN Research

Prasenjit K. Basu

Chief Economist & Political Strategist

REAL-Economics.com

Macroeconomics

-Reality continues to catch up with the Trump Economy, with real GDP growth slumping to just 0.7% QoQ in 1Q 2017, dragged down by sluggish private consumer spending (+0.3%) and slumping government spending (-1.7%). What little growth there was owed primarily to a surge in fixed investment spending by businesses (+9.4%) and on residential construction (+13.7%). Business investment grew at its fastest pace in over 3 years on the hope of a large Trump (or Congressional GOP) tax cut. The brief but…

-Reality continues to catch up with the Trump Economy, with real GDP growth slumping to just 0.7% QoQ in 1Q 2017, dragged down by sluggish private consumer spending (+0.3%) and slumping government spending (-1.7%). What little growth there was owed primarily to a surge in fixed investment spending by businesses (+9.4%) and on residential construction (+13.7%). Business investment grew at its fastest pace in over 3 years on the hope of a large Trump (or Congressional GOP) tax cut. The brief but…

US Loss of Momentum a Warning Sign for Asian Exports in 4Q 2017 and Beyond

Chart based progressive global trading strategies, Chart Partners

Thomas Schroeder

Chart based progressive global trading strategies

Chart Partners

Chart Partners objective is to discover medium-term cycle turns and profit opportunities before they unfold, within structural trends while preserving capital with clear degrees of risk. We have real return ideas. 

Markets are dynamic and trading systems must reflect this. It is crucial to determine underlying correlations and lead-lag relationships within global markets and the impact on linked instruments. Our weekly Chartonics product gives you short-term trading strategies that can be applied within the medium and longer term macro trends that are mapped out in our strategy updates. 

Our methodology fuses global market variables and isolates drivers in trends. We specialize in FX, index trade in NY and Asia with a focus on Asian stocks. 

Technical Analysis

Korea Stock Exchange Kospi Index / Technical Analysis

Korea and Japan are our biggest bets in Asia followed by H shares and SE Asia.KoreaStrategic view: Bullish to Kospi 305, 322 and 330.Tactical posture: Long from 277.60. Targets at 287 and 295.Bias: 273 is our limit line in the sand.We applaud the explosive rise out of the bull wedge and successful test of 275/273 support. This sets a more bullish strategic tone for a test on the 296 high.We have met our first rally level at 287 with strong momentum and now looking to test and clear the 295.51…

Korea and Japan are our biggest bets in Asia followed by H shares and SE Asia.KoreaStrategic view: Bullish to Kospi 305, 322 and 330.Tactical posture: Long from 277.60. Targets at 287 and 295.Bias: 273 is our limit line in the sand.We applaud the explosive rise out of the bull wedge and successful test of 275/273 support. This sets a more bullish strategic tone for a test on the 296 high.We have met our first rally level at 287 with strong momentum and now looking to test and clear the 295.51…

Korea Re Rating and Japan Pivots as EEM Flies

Asset Allocation & Fund Positioning, Copley Fund Research

Steven Holden

Asset Allocation & Fund Positioning

Copley Fund Research

Copley Fund Research provide research and data on asset allocation among Global and Emerging Market equity funds.  The analysis details absolute and relative positioning across countries, sectors and industries together with highly granular data on single stock and single fund allocations.  The data is updated monthly with time series going back to January 2011.

Global Research - Analysis of 165 prominent Global equity funds, combined AUM $335bn
GEM Research - Analysis of 127 prominent global EM equity funds, combined AUM $250bn

Asset Allocation - Global and GEM Equity

Cross Asset Strategy

• The 830 stocks in the benchmark MSCI Emerging Market Index all represent legitimate investments for global EM active managers. Whilst publicly available top 10 fund holdings will highlight what EM funds are holding, it is more difficult to establish the stocks that EM funds are avoiding. • To find these stocks we limit the universe to the constituents of the MSCI EM index and screen for companies that are held by less than 3% of the fund population in our analysis (126 global EM active equity…

• The 830 stocks in the benchmark MSCI Emerging Market Index all represent legitimate investments for global EM active managers. Whilst publicly available top 10 fund holdings will highlight what EM funds are holding, it is more difficult to establish the stocks that EM funds are avoiding. • To find these stocks we limit the universe to the constituents of the MSCI EM index and screen for companies that are held by less than 3% of the fund population in our analysis (126 global EM active equity…

Founder, Riedel Research

David Riedel

Founder

Independent equity research on GEM Markets

Riedel Research

Riedel provides equity research and analysis to leading financial organizations. By becoming members of a region (Asia, Latin America, Emerging Europe or Global), organizations have access to an integrated set of services including:

Regular company coverage reports
Up-to-date investment decision advice (buy, hold, sell)
Monthly regional and global conference calls
Customized company reports and unlimited on-line access to the program's services.

Riedel provides research coverage of companies across the full range of market capitalization. Experienced research professionals in each market develop company reports and analysis as well as earnings models and projections. Ratings are Buy, Hold and Sell with a focus on compelling investment ideas - both long and short. Downloadable, dynamic earnings models are built to facilitate sensitivity analysis.

Please feel free to contact us for complimentary access to our written research.  We want to show you that our unique research flow can add value and help develop a long-term, high value-add relationship.

Riedel's model focuses on providing clients with unique insights and consulting in addition to unlimited access to all produced research This model allows members to receive exponential benefits for their retainer fees.

World economic growth is set to improve to 3.5% this year from 3.1% in 2016, the IMF said in its latest World Economic Outlook report. The forecast was raised from 3.4% in October. The growth forecast for the U.S. for this year was raised to 2.3% from 2.2%. The outlook for next year was increased to 2.5% from 2.1%.Euro area growth forecast for this year was increased to 1.7% from 1.5% and the projection for next year was retained at 1.6%. Growth forecasts for both years for Germany, France and…

World economic growth is set to improve to 3.5% this year from 3.1% in 2016, the IMF said in its latest World Economic Outlook report. The forecast was raised from 3.4% in October. The growth forecast for the U.S. for this year was raised to 2.3% from 2.2%. The outlook for next year was increased to 2.5% from 2.1%.Euro area growth forecast for this year was increased to 1.7% from 1.5% and the projection for next year was retained at 1.6%. Growth forecasts for both years for Germany, France and…

RRG Global Macro - IMF Hikes GDP for Developed Markets - Adjustments to Outlook for Developing Asia

iShares MSCI Emerging Markets / Technical Analysis

<div>
Chartonics flash Tuesday 18 April 2017</div><div>Risk components improving</div>We want to clarify our base case view.<div>Late February touted a March correction and were locking in gains. March 27 started to put back on risk and adding more in mid April for a rally into June.</div>Hedges - In the US we shorted the S&amp;P at 2,348 as a hedge and will square this up once we see downside risk eliminated. VIX hedge was squared on the condition of an S&amp;P push above 1,235.<div>Asian offsets - We are long H shares and A shares and…</div>


Chartonics flash Tuesday 18 April 2017Risk components improvingWe want to clarify our base case view.Late February touted a March correction and were locking in gains. March 27 started to put back on risk and adding more in mid April for a rally into June.Hedges - In the US we shorted the S&amp;P at 2,348 as a hedge and will square this up once we see downside risk eliminated. VIX hedge was squared on the condition of an S&amp;P push above 1,235.Asian offsets - We are long H shares and A shares and…

United States

iShares MSCI Emerging Markets ETF is an exchange-traded fund incorporated in the USA. The ETF tracks the performance of the MSCI TR Emerging Markets Index. The ETF holds emerging market stocks that can predominantly be classified as large and mid-cap. It weights the holdings using a market capitalization methodology and rebalances quarterly.

iShares MSCI Emerging Markets (EEM US)

US Loss of Momentum a Warning Sign for Asian Exports in 4Q 2017 and Beyond

-Reality continues to catch up with the Trump Economy, with real GDP growth slumping to just 0.7% QoQ in 1Q 2017, dragged down by sluggish private...

Prasenjit K. Basu

Korea Re Rating and Japan Pivots as EEM Flies

Korea and Japan are our biggest bets in Asia followed by H shares and SE Asia.KoreaStrategic view: Bullish to Kospi 305, 322 and 330.Tactical...

Thomas Schroeder

EM Managers - Most Avoided Stocks

• The 830 stocks in the benchmark MSCI Emerging Market Index all represent legitimate investments for global EM active managers. Whilst publicly...

Steven Holden

RRG Global Macro - IMF Hikes GDP for Developed Markets - Adjustments to Outlook for Developing Asia

World economic growth is set to improve to 3.5% this year from 3.1% in 2016, the IMF said in its latest World Economic Outlook report. The forecast...

David Riedel

Risk Components Improving

Chartonics flash Tuesday 18 April 2017Risk components improvingWe want to clarify our base case view.Late February touted a March correction and...

Thomas Schroeder