Emerging Market Economist, Emerginomics

Tatiana Orlova

Emerging Market Economist

Emerginomics

Cross Asset Strategy

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G-20 summit in Buenos Aires and the OPEC+ meeting are the two critical events that are likely to influence the global economy and energy markets in 2019. There are signs that some countries in Latin America and Asia are already taking sides in the "cold war" between the US and China. The recent incident in the Kerch Strait came as a negative shock to Ukrainian and Russian markets, however, we do not expect an escalation of tensions in our base scenario. Investors are on tenterhooks as the new populist president in Mexico announces market-unfriendly steps. 
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G-20 summit in Buenos Aires and the OPEC+ meeting are the two critical events that are likely to influence the global economy and energy markets in 2019. There are signs that some countries in Latin America and Asia are already taking sides in the "cold war" between the US and China. The recent incident in the Kerch Strait came as a negative shock to Ukrainian and Russian markets, however, we do not expect an escalation of tensions in our base scenario. Investors are on tenterhooks as the new populist president in Mexico announces market-unfriendly steps. 


Monthly Geopolitical Comment: Focus on G-20 Summit and OPEC+ Meeting

Chart based progressive global trading strategies, Chart Partners

Thomas Schroeder

Chart based progressive global trading strategies

Chart Partners

Chart Partners objective is to discover medium-term cycle turns and profit opportunities before they unfold, within structural trends while preserving capital with clear degrees of risk. We have real return ideas. 

Markets are dynamic and trading systems must reflect this. It is crucial to determine underlying correlations and lead-lag relationships within global markets and the impact on linked instruments. Our weekly Chartonics product gives you short-term trading strategies that can be applied within the medium and longer term macro trends that are mapped out in our strategy updates. 

Our methodology fuses global market variables and isolates drivers in trends. We specialize in FX, index trade in NY and Asia with a focus on Asian stocks. 

Technical Analysis

We hold a macro bearish view for 2019 but do see risk of a G20 induced December rally spike on an US/China olive branch or staggered deal schedule. Our base case centers around bullish expectations going into the G20 followed by a spike and fade as reality sets in barring a deal which would turn up the volume for a December bounce trade.We outline assets we like to trade higher with stops and targets. EEM, China/HK, Singapore, Europe and the US.Triangle pattern set ups in HSCEI, HSI, CQQQ, Korea and Taiwan with well defined breakout points that imply energy is building for a good tactical rally.USD flirting with a top makes EM's and Asia more attractive on a December rise as the perform bet.No deal would induce downside breaks in outlined triangle patterns. Use these pattern to manage risk.

We hold a macro bearish view for 2019 but do see risk of a G20 induced December rally spike on an US/China olive branch or staggered deal schedule. Our base case centers around bullish expectations going into the G20 followed by a spike and fade as reality sets in barring a deal which would turn up the volume for a December bounce trade.We outline assets we like to trade higher with stops and targets. EEM, China/HK, Singapore, Europe and the US.Triangle pattern set ups in HSCEI, HSI, CQQQ, Korea and Taiwan with well defined breakout points that imply energy is building for a good tactical rally.USD flirting with a top makes EM's and Asia more attractive on a December rise as the perform bet.No deal would induce downside breaks in outlined triangle patterns. Use these pattern to manage risk.

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Our outlook remains cautious as we continue to expect heightened volatility and a potential retest of the February 2018 lows over the next several weeks. Near-term we are monitoring for S&amp;P 500 support near 2,600 (i.e., the October low) and resistance near 2,817 or the 100- and 50-day moving averages. In today’s report we outline our current concerns along with developments that would cause us to become more constructive on the market. We also highlight attractive set ups within the Financials, Consumer Discretionary, and Health Care Sectors.

Our outlook remains cautious as we continue to expect heightened volatility and a potential retest of the February 2018 lows over the next several weeks. Near-term we are monitoring for S&amp;P 500 support near 2,600 (i.e., the October low) and resistance near 2,817 or the 100- and 50-day moving averages. In today’s report we outline our current concerns along with developments that would cause us to become more constructive on the market. We also highlight attractive set ups within the Financials, Consumer Discretionary, and Health Care Sectors.

U.S. Equity Strategy: Retest of October Lows Underway; Upgrading Financials

Founder, Riedel Research

David Riedel

Founder

Independent equity research on GEM Markets

Riedel Research

Riedel provides equity research and analysis to leading financial organizations. By becoming members of a region (Asia, Latin America, Emerging Europe or Global), organizations have access to an integrated set of services including:

Regular company coverage reports
Up-to-date investment decision advice (buy, hold, sell)
Monthly regional and global conference calls
Customized company reports and unlimited on-line access to the program's services.

Riedel provides research coverage of companies across the full range of market capitalization. Experienced research professionals in each market develop company reports and analysis as well as earnings models and projections. Ratings are Buy, Hold and Sell with a focus on compelling investment ideas - both long and short. Downloadable, dynamic earnings models are built to facilitate sensitivity analysis.

Please feel free to contact us for complimentary access to our written research.  We want to show you that our unique research flow can add value and help develop a long-term, high value-add relationship.

Riedel's model focuses on providing clients with unique insights and consulting in addition to unlimited access to all produced research This model allows members to receive exponential benefits for their retainer fees.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Poland: The economy in Q3 grew 5.1% y/y, same as in Q2. Inflation in October was up a mere 1.8% y/y, compared with 1.9% the month before..</li>
<li>India: Industrial production in September slowed slightly to 4.6% y/y from 4.7% the previous month.</li>
<li>Brazil: Retail Sales have been soft. The market may be waiting to see how the new president-elect is going to act once in office.</li>
</ul>


Poland: The economy in Q3 grew 5.1% y/y, same as in Q2. Inflation in October was up a mere 1.8% y/y, compared with 1.9% the month before..
India: Industrial production in September slowed slightly to 4.6% y/y from 4.7% the previous month.
Brazil: Retail Sales have been soft. The market may be waiting to see how the new president-elect is going to act once in office.


Brexit Chaos and Falling Oil Prices Spook Markets - EM a Bright Spot

The “Big” rally has now faded less than a week from its start. While many point to a robust economy, strong GDP, and a strengthening U.S. dollar as the bellwether of global currencies, something seems amiss. Higher interest rates have doused the market’s advance, with 10-year yields double what they once were just three years ago. Investors are being jostled about as a determination is made as to whether the Fed has gone too far and too fast. Our concern here is that the Fed is creating a conundrum, indicating that higher rates are still forthcoming despite what we, and the market, are viewing as the possible end of the bull market...In our November Strategy publication, we outline a host of indicators we are watching for signs of the market's health.  In addition we highlight a number of actionable setups within Health care, Consumer Staples and Technology.

The “Big” rally has now faded less than a week from its start. While many point to a robust economy, strong GDP, and a strengthening U.S. dollar as the bellwether of global currencies, something seems amiss. Higher interest rates have doused the market’s advance, with 10-year yields double what they once were just three years ago. Investors are being jostled about as a determination is made as to whether the Fed has gone too far and too fast. Our concern here is that the Fed is creating a conundrum, indicating that higher rates are still forthcoming despite what we, and the market, are viewing as the possible end of the bull market...In our November Strategy publication, we outline a host of indicators we are watching for signs of the market's health.  In addition we highlight a number of actionable setups within Health care, Consumer Staples and Technology.

U.S. Equity Strategy & Sector Commentaries: Defensive Sectors Leading = Unhealthy Market

United States

iShares MSCI Emerging Markets ETF is an exchange-traded fund incorporated in the USA. The ETF tracks the performance of the MSCI TR Emerging Markets Index. The ETF holds emerging market stocks that can predominantly be classified as large and mid-cap. It weights the holdings using a market capitalization methodology and rebalances quarterly.

iShares MSCI Emerging Markets (EEM US)

Monthly Geopolitical Comment: Focus on G-20 Summit and OPEC+ Meeting

G-20 summit in Buenos Aires and the OPEC+ meeting are the two critical events that are likely to influence the global economy and energy markets...

Tatiana Orlova

Trading into and Out of the G20

We hold a macro bearish view for 2019 but do see risk of a G20 induced December rally spike on an US/China olive branch or staggered deal schedule....

Thomas Schroeder

U.S. Equity Strategy: Retest of October Lows Underway; Upgrading Financials

Our outlook remains cautious as we continue to expect heightened volatility and a potential retest of the February 2018 lows over the next several...

Vermilion Research

Brexit Chaos and Falling Oil Prices Spook Markets - EM a Bright Spot

Poland: The economy in Q3 grew 5.1% y/y, same as in Q2. Inflation in October was up a mere 1.8% y/y, compared with 1.9% the month before.. India:...

David Riedel

U.S. Equity Strategy & Sector Commentaries: Defensive Sectors Leading = Unhealthy Market

The “Big” rally has now faded less than a week from its start. While many point to a robust economy, strong GDP, and a strengthening U.S. dollar as...

Vermilion Research