Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

Today we highlight several metrics which provide evidence that risk appetites are improving, not deteriorating. This is a bullish signal for the broad market. Still, we continue to see a mixed market environment, but we remain constructive overall with the S&amp;P 500 holding above short-term support at the 50-day moving average and 4056.

Today we highlight several metrics which provide evidence that risk appetites are improving, not deteriorating. This is a bullish signal for the broad market. Still, we continue to see a mixed market environment, but we remain constructive overall with the S&amp;P 500 holding above short-term support at the 50-day moving average and 4056.

Risk Appetites Improving, A Bullish Sign; Downgrading Technology To Underweight

We are beginning to see early signs of rotations back into more risk-on areas of the equity market -- a bullish sign for the broad market. Short-term outperformance and constructive consolidation/bottoming patterns are evident within biotech (IBB, XBI), small- and micro-caps (IWM, IWC), and emerging markets (EEM). This only adds to our positive outlook for the weeks and months ahead; continue to buy pullbacks.

We are beginning to see early signs of rotations back into more risk-on areas of the equity market -- a bullish sign for the broad market. Short-term outperformance and constructive consolidation/bottoming patterns are evident within biotech (IBB, XBI), small- and micro-caps (IWM, IWC), and emerging markets (EEM). This only adds to our positive outlook for the weeks and months ahead; continue to buy pullbacks.

U.S. Equity Strategy: Risk-On Rotations Vs. Weaker Seasonality; Russell 2000, Biotech, EM Improving

Despite a much more mixed market environment, our weight-of-the-evidence approach continues to support a constructive intermediate-term outlook. The bottom line: there is little evidence that suggests a pullback would be anything more than a buying opportunity.

Despite a much more mixed market environment, our weight-of-the-evidence approach continues to support a constructive intermediate-term outlook. The bottom line: there is little evidence that suggests a pullback would be anything more than a buying opportunity.

Defensives Are Worth A Look; Hang Seng, Shanghai Comp, Nikkei 225, STOXX 50 Support Levels Holding

Asset Allocation & Fund Positioning, Copley Fund Research

Steven Holden

Asset Allocation & Fund Positioning

Copley Fund Research

Copley Fund Research provide research and data on asset allocation among Global and Emerging Market equity funds.  The analysis details absolute and relative positioning across countries, sectors and industries together with highly granular data on single stock and single fund allocations.  The data is updated monthly with time series going back to January 2011.

Global Research - Analysis of 165 prominent Global equity funds, combined AUM $335bn
GEM Research - Analysis of 127 prominent global EM equity funds, combined AUM $250bn

Asset Allocation - Global and GEM Equity

Equity Bottom-Up

Alibaba Group Holding  / Equity Bottom-Up

Following the cancelled Ant IPO in November of last year, sentiment towards <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/alibaba-group-holding-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:787:1" rel="noopener">Alibaba Group (BABA US)</a> turned negative.  Average weights in EM portfolios fell from 6.57% in October to 3.82% today, the percentage of funds holding <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/alibaba-group-holding-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:787:1" rel="noopener">Alibaba Group (BABA US) </a>fell from 83.4% to 81.7%, the percentage of funds overweight <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/alibaba-group-holding-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:787:1" rel="noopener">Alibaba Group (BABA US)</a> fell from 41.1% to 30.3% and for the first time since 2018, the there was an excess of sellers over buyers.With the regulatory overhang seen largely as done for now, we present 4 reasons why we believe EM managers will be incentivized to increase allocations from here.

Following the cancelled Ant IPO in November of last year, sentiment towards Alibaba Group (BABA US) turned negative.  Average weights in EM portfolios fell from 6.57% in October to 3.82% today, the percentage of funds holding Alibaba Group (BABA US) fell from 83.4% to 81.7%, the percentage of funds overweight Alibaba Group (BABA US) fell from 41.1% to 30.3% and for the first time since 2018, the there was an excess of sellers over buyers.With the regulatory overhang seen largely as done for now, we present 4 reasons why we believe EM managers will be incentivized to increase allocations from here.

Alibaba:  Reversal Trade Could Run. EM Funds Underweight & Far from Overstretched

Smartkarma Research Team, Smartkarma

Smartkarma Research

Smartkarma Research Team

Smartkarma

Smartkarma unites the fragmented investment industry, connecting institutional investors, independent research providers, and corporates within a single network.

Research Reinvented

iShares MSCI Emerging Markets / Technical Analysis

In our next Webinar, we welcome back Insight Provider <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/thomas-schroeder" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="accounts:381" rel="noopener">Thomas Schroeder</a> who will take us through a timely update on Asian technicals using his unique chart-based analysis.
<h3>The webinar was hosted on Wednesday, 31 March 2021, 17:00 SGT/HKT.</h3>
Watch the session:
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Or subscribe to listen on the go:
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Thomas Schroeder started using charts and trading in the FX markets in 1989 and entered the equities arena in 1992 with Deutsche Bank as a fundamental analyst, but found himself relying more on inter-market cycles and charts. In 1994, he became the Asian head of Technical Research for UBS Securities in Hong Kong and in 1997 he was charged with heading the Global Technical Research team for SG Securities. In July of 2003, Chart Partners Group Limited was formed, providing clients with timely and accurate progressive trading strategies in a truly global context.

In our next Webinar, we welcome back Insight Provider Thomas Schroeder who will take us through a timely update on Asian technicals using his unique chart-based analysis.
The webinar was hosted on Wednesday, 31 March 2021, 17:00 SGT/HKT.
Watch the session:

Or subscribe to listen on the go:

Thomas Schroeder started using charts and trading in the FX markets in 1989 and entered the equities arena in 1992 with Deutsche Bank as a fundamental analyst, but found himself relying more on inter-market cycles and charts. In 1994, he became the Asian head of Technical Research for UBS Securities in Hong Kong and in 1997 he was charged with heading the Global Technical Research team for SG Securities. In July of 2003, Chart Partners Group Limited was formed, providing clients with timely and accurate progressive trading strategies in a truly global context.

Smartkarma Webinar | Asian Market Technicals - Cycle Tops Forming

United States

iShares MSCI Emerging Markets ETF is an exchange-traded fund incorporated in the USA. The ETF tracks the performance of the MSCI TR Emerging Markets Index. The ETF holds emerging market stocks that can predominantly be classified as large and mid-cap. It weights the holdings using a market capitalization methodology and rebalances quarterly.

iShares MSCI Emerging Markets (EEM US)

Risk Appetites Improving, A Bullish Sign; Downgrading Technology To Underweight

Below we highlight several metrics which provide evidence that risk appetites are improving, not deteriorating. This is a bullish signal for the...

Vermilion Research

U.S. Equity Strategy: Risk-On Rotations Vs. Weaker Seasonality; Russell 2000, Biotech, EM Improving

We are seeing signs of rotations back into more risk-on areas of the equity market -- a bullish sign for the broad market. Add to biotech, small-...

Vermilion Research

Defensives Are Worth A Look; Hang Seng, Shanghai Comp, Nikkei 225, STOXX 50 Support Levels Holding

A review of major global indexes reveals an absence of major breakdowns. We highlight opportunities within defensive Sectors (Real Estate, Consumer...

Vermilion Research

Alibaba: Reversal Trade Could Run. EM Funds Underweight & Far from Overstretched

Alibaba remains the largest underweight in EM. With sentiment at it's lowest ebb prior to this weekend's antitrust fine, EM managers may be...

Steven Holden

Smartkarma Webinar | Asian Market Technicals - Cycle Tops Forming

On 31 March, 5pm SGT, we welcome back Insight Provider Thomas Schroeder who will take us through a timely update on Asian technicals using his...

Smartkarma Research