Japan Specialist

Mark Chadwick

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>ASML pre-released their updated view on demand and capacity - ahead of Nov 11, 2022 Investor Day - BETTER THAN EXPECTED</li>
<li>Inflation now past peak and semi/tech likely see sustained bid. Even better for those  names that are monopolies in the EUV space = ASML and Lasertec</li>
<li>Remain bullish Lasertec despite the recent rally. Better earnings and order outlook, and multiples to drive share price</li>
</ul>


ASML pre-released their updated view on demand and capacity - ahead of Nov 11, 2022 Investor Day - BETTER THAN EXPECTED
Inflation now past peak and semi/tech likely see sustained bid. Even better for those  names that are monopolies in the EUV space = ASML and Lasertec
Remain bullish Lasertec despite the recent rally. Better earnings and order outlook, and multiples to drive share price


Lasertec(6920): Tailwinds Intensify - From ASML Outlook Upgrade to Lower Inflation

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>
<strong>Good Morning Japan:</strong> We strive to provide the best macro, stock and thematic overnight news that will impact the trading day in Japan. Like this ?  Feedback appreciated !</li>
<li>BUY EVERY RALLY:  Equities, USD, Yen - market now priced in peak CPI and Fed Pivot. Still, we have a ways to go.</li>
<li>NKY to up 1.8% vs cash; Yen now 141 handle - not positive for all companies; Buybacks continue at a torried pace; Machine Tools -YoY. Negative Fanuc</li>
</ul>



Good Morning Japan: We strive to provide the best macro, stock and thematic overnight news that will impact the trading day in Japan. Like this ?  Feedback appreciated !
BUY EVERY RALLY:  Equities, USD, Yen - market now priced in peak CPI and Fed Pivot. Still, we have a ways to go.
NKY to up 1.8% vs cash; Yen now 141 handle - not positive for all companies; Buybacks continue at a torried pace; Machine Tools -YoY. Negative Fanuc


Good Morning Japan | Inflation Slain? = Buy Everything Rally

<ul>
<li>Good Morning Japan: A detailed look at the overnight news and market moves that will impact the trading day in Japan</li>
<li>OVERNIGHT: Gridlock rally continues.. Materials and tech leading.  Brief interruptions from a mini-crypto crash.  All good now. but we look to inflation numbers </li>
<li>IN JAPAN:  All good - Govt approves stimulus of ¥29trn; USDJPY stabilizing as market turns bullish yen; Strong earnings from Sumco;  Positive semi initiation in European with positive JP read </li>
</ul>


Good Morning Japan: A detailed look at the overnight news and market moves that will impact the trading day in Japan
OVERNIGHT: Gridlock rally continues.. Materials and tech leading.  Brief interruptions from a mini-crypto crash.  All good now. but we look to inflation numbers 
IN JAPAN:  All good - Govt approves stimulus of ¥29trn; USDJPY stabilizing as market turns bullish yen; Strong earnings from Sumco;  Positive semi initiation in European with positive JP read 


<ul>
<li>ASML, a key supplier of EUV semicon equipment, reported better-than-expected third-quarter sales and profit along with record new bookings</li>
<li>CEO Peter Wennink said customers were focusing on plans to expand their long-term capacity, rather than the current economic slowdown and weakness in end-markets</li>
<li>That should be music to the ears of Lasertec shareholders. The stock has plummeted 49% so far this year. Valuations are attractive</li>
</ul>


ASML, a key supplier of EUV semicon equipment, reported better-than-expected third-quarter sales and profit along with record new bookings
CEO Peter Wennink said customers were focusing on plans to expand their long-term capacity, rather than the current economic slowdown and weakness in end-markets
That should be music to the ears of Lasertec shareholders. The stock has plummeted 49% so far this year. Valuations are attractive


Lasertec (6920) | ASML Shrugs off the Tech Recession

Senior Technology Analyst, Japanese Equities, LightStream Research

Scott Foster

Senior Technology Analyst, Japanese Equities

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

<ul>
<li>The shares are down 58% from their January high. Our 3-year forecast brings valuations down to levels not seen since FY Jun-18.</li>
<li>The great surge in orders is coming to an end, but EUV lithography and SiC power devices should keep demand for Lasertec's mask inspection systems at high levels.</li>
<li>The severity of the emerging semiconductor down-cycle and global recession remain to be seen, but the company's long-term potential warrants another look. </li>
</ul>


The shares are down 58% from their January high. Our 3-year forecast brings valuations down to levels not seen since FY Jun-18.
The great surge in orders is coming to an end, but EUV lithography and SiC power devices should keep demand for Lasertec's mask inspection systems at high levels.
The severity of the emerging semiconductor down-cycle and global recession remain to be seen, but the company's long-term potential warrants another look. 


Lasertec (6920 JP): Accumulate for the Long Term

Japan

Lasertec Corporation develops, designs, manufactures and markets photomask inspection systems to make semiconductor devices, confocal scanning laser microscopes and liquid crystal display (LCD) inspection systems.

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Lasertec Corp (6920 JP)

Lasertec(6920): Tailwinds Intensify - From ASML Outlook Upgrade to Lower Inflation

Bullish ASML update implications and moderating inflation to drive re-rating of Lasertec. We see order outlook much better than forecast and expect...

Mark Chadwick

Good Morning Japan | Inflation Slain? = Buy Everything Rally

Good Morning Japan: We strive to provide the best macro, stock and thematic overnight news that will impact the trading day in Japan. Like this ? ...

Mark Chadwick

Good Morning Japan - Wed Gridlock Rally

Good Morning Japan: We take a detailed look at the overnight news and market moves that will impact the trading day in Japan.

Mark Chadwick

Lasertec (6920) | ASML Shrugs off the Tech Recession

ASML's customers were focusing on plans to expand their long-term capacity, rather than the current economic slowdown and weakness in end-markets....

Mark Chadwick

Lasertec (6920 JP): Accumulate for the Long Term

Share price down nearly 60% this year, cutting projected valuations to levels last seen in FY Jun-18. Orders surge ending, but huge backlog, EUV...

Scott Foster

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