Breaking Down the Mining News of the Day, Money of Mine

Money of Mine

Breaking Down the Mining News of the Day

An ex-underground miner, an ex-investment banker, and an ex-equity research guy breaking down the mining news of the day. It's a bit of entertainment, information, and occasionally some alpha.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Fortescue Metals Group experienced a significant block trade worth $1.1 billion, leading to a 6% discount in their stock price</li>
<li>Potential sellers include Hunan Iron and Steel Group, Vallon Holdings, and Capital Group, with speculation on the reasons behind the sale</li>
<li>The geopolitical situation in Niger, with ongoing conflicts involving French, US, and Russian forces against Islamist militants, is a topic of interest and discussion among the group</li>
</ul>
This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.


Fortescue Metals Group experienced a significant block trade worth $1.1 billion, leading to a 6% discount in their stock price
Potential sellers include Hunan Iron and Steel Group, Vallon Holdings, and Capital Group, with speculation on the reasons behind the sale
The geopolitical situation in Niger, with ongoing conflicts involving French, US, and Russian forces against Islamist militants, is a topic of interest and discussion among the group

This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.

Equity, Bottom-up Analyst, Investics Research

Sameer Taneja

Equity, Bottom-up Analyst

Investics Research

It is important to note that the information provided by Investics Research is based on publicly available data and own knowledge, which has been gathered and analyzed from a variety of sources. While every effort has been made to ensure the accuracy and completeness of the information provided, it is not guaranteed to be free from errors or omissions. All forecasts and estimates are based on information that has been obtained from public sources that are considered to be reliable. The sources include but are not limited to, company announcements, exchange filings, presentations, etc. Investics does not guarantee the accuracy and completeness of the forecasts, estimates, and/or other information.

Equity Bottom-up Research

<ul>
<li>In the world of 8-10% dividend-yielding commodities, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/fortescue-metals-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:41:1" rel="noopener">Fortescue Metals (FMG AU)</a> almost makes the cut. We would wait for a better entry point here despite iron ore strength.</li>
<li>We are also mindful of the risks associated with capex in the green energy space to achieve zero emissions and ramp costs with the recent production increase.</li>
<li>We believe numbers are at par, trading at 9.6x PE on the current spot price (130 USD/ton) with a 7% dividend yield ( assuming a 65% payout ratio). </li>
</ul>


In the world of 8-10% dividend-yielding commodities, Fortescue Metals (FMG AU) almost makes the cut. We would wait for a better entry point here despite iron ore strength.
We are also mindful of the risks associated with capex in the green energy space to achieve zero emissions and ramp costs with the recent production increase.
We believe numbers are at par, trading at 9.6x PE on the current spot price (130 USD/ton) with a 7% dividend yield ( assuming a 65% payout ratio). 


Fortescue Metals (FMG AU): 8% Yield At Spot Price With Risks, Wait For Better Entry Point

Commodities

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/fortescue-metals-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:41:1" rel="noopener">Fortescue Metals (FMG AU)</a> trades at a steady dividend yield of 9%, assuming a 115 USD/ton iron ore price and an 80% payout. </li>
<li>The payout risk lies in incremental capex spend on green energy in future years. For FY24, the company has committed USD 500 mn  (overall capex 3.0-3.2 bn USD). </li>
<li>We expect shipments of ~54 million tons for Q4 FY24 (in its production report to be released on 25th July) and 192 million tons for FY24 (flat YoY).</li>
</ul>



Fortescue Metals (FMG AU) trades at a steady dividend yield of 9%, assuming a 115 USD/ton iron ore price and an 80% payout. 
The payout risk lies in incremental capex spend on green energy in future years. For FY24, the company has committed USD 500 mn  (overall capex 3.0-3.2 bn USD). 
We expect shipments of ~54 million tons for Q4 FY24 (in its production report to be released on 25th July) and 192 million tons for FY24 (flat YoY).


Fortescue Metals Group (FMG AU): High Dividend Yield of 9%, What to Expect From Q4 FY24

<ul>
<li>We like <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/vale-sa" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:23731:1" rel="noopener">Vale (VALE US)</a> for its exposure to high-grade iron ore (95% of EBITDA) and capital return discipline, with a current dividend yield of 8% and 3.5x EV-EBITDA. </li>
<li>The cash flows from the iron ore business could be used to invest in base metals, such as copper, nickel, etc., to enhance the portfolio. </li>
<li>The key risk remains the overhang from the Mariana Dam disaster being settled for  ~25.7 billion USD (vs. the current market cap of 50 billion USD). </li>
</ul>


We like Vale (VALE US) for its exposure to high-grade iron ore (95% of EBITDA) and capital return discipline, with a current dividend yield of 8% and 3.5x EV-EBITDA. 
The cash flows from the iron ore business could be used to invest in base metals, such as copper, nickel, etc., to enhance the portfolio. 
The key risk remains the overhang from the Mariana Dam disaster being settled for  ~25.7 billion USD (vs. the current market cap of 50 billion USD). 


VALE US: Exposure to High-Grade Iron Ore With >8% Dividend Yield

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Prior to recent developments, Andrew Forrest held a 36.25% stake in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/fortescue-metals-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:41:1" rel="noopener">Fortescue Metals (FMG AU)</a>.</li>
<li>An ASIC shareholder disclosure into the giant iron-ore miner earlier this year fuelled speculation, culminating in an ASX notice Andrew was separating from his wife after 31 years of marriage. </li>
<li>A private statement assures there will be no impact on the control of FMG. But that won't put a stop to the rumour mill.</li>
</ul>


Prior to recent developments, Andrew Forrest held a 36.25% stake in Fortescue Metals (FMG AU).
An ASIC shareholder disclosure into the giant iron-ore miner earlier this year fuelled speculation, culminating in an ASX notice Andrew was separating from his wife after 31 years of marriage. 
A private statement assures there will be no impact on the control of FMG. But that won't put a stop to the rumour mill.


Australia

Newcrest Mining Limited is a gold mining, exploration and production company. The Company is geographically focused in Australia, the Pacific region and Asia. Newcrest Mining operates projects within six provinces in four countries, focusing on the Cadia East and Lihir MOPU expansion projects and the Wafi Golpu and Namosi greenfield projects.

Northern Star Resources Ltd manufactures precious metals. The Company provides mining and production of gold. Northern Star Resources serves customers in Australia and North America.

South32 Limited operates as a diversified metals and mining company. The Company produces alumina, aluminum, coal, manganese, nickel, silver, lead, and zinc. South32 conducts business globally.

Glencore plc is a diversified natural resources company. The Company operates in three groups, metals and minerals, energy products, and agricultural products. Glencore offers its products and services around the world.

BlueScope Steel Limited supplies steel products and solutions. The Company manufactures steel slabs, plates, hot and cold rolled coils, and coated and painted strip products for building and construction, automotive, whitegoods, and manufacturing applications. BlueScope Steel serves customers in Asia, Australia, New Zealand, and the United States.

OZ Minerals Ltd. is an Australian based mining company with a focus on copper. The Company owns and operates the Prominent Hill copper-gold mine and the Carrapateena copper-gold project located in South Australia and has a number of equity interests in listed resource companies.

Pilbara Minerals Ltd. is a mineral exploration company. The Company owns mineral tenements in the west Pilbara region of Western Australia where it explores for iron ore, gold and base metals, particularly copper and nickel.

Yancoal Australia Limited provides coal mining services. The Company mines, processes, and sells pure-coal, metallurgical coal, and more. Yancoal Australia also exports its products.

MMG Limited is a mid-tier global resources company which explores, develops and mines base metal projects around the world.  The Company currently owns and operates the Century, Golden Grove and Rosebery mines in Australia, the Kinsevere mine in the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) and the LXML Sepon mine in Laos.

Evolution Mining Ltd is a gold exploration company with operations in Western Australia. The Company owns the gold mines -Cracow, Edna May, Mt Rawdon, and Pajingo - and the Mt Carlton development project.

POSCO Holdings Inc. manufactures and distributes steel products. The Company produces crude steel, hot rolled steel, cold rolled steel, stainless steel, steel plates, wire rods, galvanized steel, electrical steel, and other related products. POSCO Holdings markets its products worldwide.

JFE Holdings, Inc. is a holding company which was established through the merger of NKK Corp and Kawasaki Steel Corp.  The Company manages and conducts its subsidiaries' business, which is steel production and integrated engineering services.

Vedanta Limited mines, produces, and exports base metals. The Company mines and distributes metals such as zinc, iron ore, copper, silver, and aluminium, as well as operates power plants. Vedanta markets its products worldwide.

Glencore Plc is a diversified natural resources company. The Company operates in three groups: Metals and Minerals, Energy Products, and Agricultural Products. Glencore Plc offers its products and services around the world.

Nippon Steel Corp is an integrated steel maker. The Company produces various types of steel products used for industrial machinery & equipment and exports them worldwide.  Nippon Steel provides plant construction and urban development and also develops new businesses such as chemicals, ceramics, electronic equipment and information & communication systems.

China Steel Corporation manufactures and markets a variety of steel products. The main products are hot rolled coils and sheets, cold rolled coils and sheets, wire rods, steel plates, and steel bars.

China Hongqiao Group Ltd. manufactures aluminum products. The Company's aluminum products consist of molten aluminum alloy, aluminum alloy ingots and aluminum busbars.

Baoshan Iron & Steel Co., Ltd. manufactures and markets a variety of iron and steel products including cold rolled plates and coils, hot rolled plates and coils, seamless steel tubes, high-speed wire rods, and steel billets.  The company also operates in related energy production businesses.

Nucor Corporation manufactures steel products.  The Company's products include carbon and alloy steel, steel joists, steel deck, cold finished steel, steel grinding balls, steel bearing products, and metal buildingsystems. Nucor also brokers ferrous and nonferrous metals, pig iron and HBI/DRI; supplies ferro-alloys; and processes ferrous and nonferrous scrap.

Zijin Mining Group Co., Ltd., through its subsidiaries, explores, mines, produces, refines, and sells gold and other mineral resources in China.

Fortescue Metals Group Ltd. explores for and produces iron ore. The Company conducts business worldwide.

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Fortescue Metals (FMG AU)

Who’s Dumping FMG Stock?

Discussion on uranium geopolitics and potential site visits, analyst interests in gold, oil, and gas, Fortescue block trade, speculation on sellers...

Money of Mine