Value Investing

Vladimir Dimitrov, CFA

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Amazon has significantly underperformed the broader equity market, in spite of the recent rally.</li>
<li>The narrative for generative AI is strong, but the share price is currently driven by other factors.</li>
<li>Margin improvements are being priced-in, which significantly limits any potential upside, without monetary conditions becoming supportive.</li>
</ul>


Amazon has significantly underperformed the broader equity market, in spite of the recent rally.
The narrative for generative AI is strong, but the share price is currently driven by other factors.
Margin improvements are being priced-in, which significantly limits any potential upside, without monetary conditions becoming supportive.


Amazon: Monetary Conditions Are In The Driver's Seat And Higher Margins Are Already Priced-In

China/Asia TMT

Shawn Yang

China growth and global non-US Internet equities

Blue Lotus Research Institute

Blue Lotus Research is a Hong Kong Type 4 Licensed investment advisory firm focusing on Chinese growth equities and global non-US Internet equities

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Recently, many Chinese sellers on Amazon have reported a  decline in their store's performance, including order volume and profits.</li>
<li>According to their feedback, the adjustment of Amazon's advertising rules, the use of AI, and competition from platforms like Temu are likely important reasons for this decline.</li>
<li>We suggest the trend could be interpreted as something unfavorable for Amazon but beneficial for Temu/PDD.</li>
</ul>


Recently, many Chinese sellers on Amazon have reported a  decline in their store's performance, including order volume and profits.
According to their feedback, the adjustment of Amazon's advertising rules, the use of AI, and competition from platforms like Temu are likely important reasons for this decline.
We suggest the trend could be interpreted as something unfavorable for Amazon but beneficial for Temu/PDD.


Chinese Sellers Recent Discussions About Amazon's Latest Changes, a Summary

Independent Investment Research & Investor, Maverick Equity Research

Maverick Equity Research

Independent Investment Research & Investor

Independent Investment Research & Investor: value, dividend and growth stocks. Risk management & hedging for an all weather portfolio.

<ul><li>1st chart shows us the 2023 % returns &amp; the holdings weightings while the 2nd table is a return attribution analysis which tells us exactly that 10.25% (1025 b.p basis points) are due to just 7 stocks, the M7 (Magnificent Seven) tech stocks: Apple, Microsoft, Nvidia, Amazon, Tesla, Meta/Facebook &amp; Google/Alphabet. Let that sink in!</li><li>The laggard are the following top 7 stocks: their weight is small in the index, but note the individual returns which are materially negative in 2023</li><li>To continues smoothly here, the S&amp;P 500 with the stocks above their 52-week lows &amp; below their 52-week highs: tech, AI, semiconductors and consumer discretionary are leading and hot, while energy, cruises &amp; travel cooled off in the last year</li></ul>

1st chart shows us the 2023 % returns &amp; the holdings weightings while the 2nd table is a return attribution analysis which tells us exactly that 10.25% (1025 b.p basis points) are due to just 7 stocks, the M7 (Magnificent Seven) tech stocks: Apple, Microsoft, Nvidia, Amazon, Tesla, Meta/Facebook &amp; Google/Alphabet. Let that sink in!The laggard are the following top 7 stocks: their weight is small in the index, but note the individual returns which are materially negative in 2023To continues smoothly here, the S&amp;P 500 with the stocks above their 52-week lows &amp; below their 52-week highs: tech, AI, semiconductors and consumer discretionary are leading and hot, while energy, cruises &amp; travel cooled off in the last year

The S&P 500 Report: Performance, Profitability, Valuation & Key Metrics - Ed #2

High Quality Stock Setups, Weekly Stock Bull Finder

Weekly Stock Bull Finder

High Quality Stock Setups

Finding high potential stock setups on quality companies

<ul><li>This past week, the S&amp;P 500 snapped a five-week winning streak and Nasdaq snapped an eight-week winning streak.</li><li>Last week also saw the Nasdaq post 4 consecutive days of net new lows, signaling caution.</li><li>A healthy and much needed pullback could offer opportunities ahead of the upcoming second quarter earnings season.</li></ul>

This past week, the S&amp;P 500 snapped a five-week winning streak and Nasdaq snapped an eight-week winning streak.Last week also saw the Nasdaq post 4 consecutive days of net new lows, signaling caution.A healthy and much needed pullback could offer opportunities ahead of the upcoming second quarter earnings season.

IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Equity Capital Markets

Alibaba Group Holding  / Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/alibaba-group-holding-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:787:1" rel="noopener">Alibaba (ADR) (BABA US)</a> aims to complete a spin-off of the Cloud Intelligence Group via a stock dividend distribution, with it becoming publicly listed in the next 12 months.  </li>
<li>The Cloud business is pursuing a land-grab strategy to reignite growth. While it is the only profitable Chinese cloud platform, the profitability gap to Amazon AWS highlights the opportunity. </li>
<li>The aim to bring in external strategic investors before the spin-off will provide a valuation benchmark. Our analysis points to a Cloud business valuation range of US$45-58 billion. </li>
</ul>



Alibaba (ADR) (BABA US) aims to complete a spin-off of the Cloud Intelligence Group via a stock dividend distribution, with it becoming publicly listed in the next 12 months.  
The Cloud business is pursuing a land-grab strategy to reignite growth. While it is the only profitable Chinese cloud platform, the profitability gap to Amazon AWS highlights the opportunity. 
The aim to bring in external strategic investors before the spin-off will provide a valuation benchmark. Our analysis points to a Cloud business valuation range of US$45-58 billion. 


Alibaba’s Cloud Intelligence Group Spin-Off: The First Look

United States

Amazon.com, Inc. is an online retailer that offers a wide range of products. The Company's products include books, music, videotapes, computers, electronics, home and garden, and numerous other products.  Amazon offers personalized shopping services, Web-based credit card payment, and direct shipping to customers.

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Amazon.com Inc (AMZN US)

Amazon: Monetary Conditions Are In The Driver's Seat And Higher Margins Are Already Priced-In

Amazon has significantly underperformed the broader equity market, in spite of the recent rally. The narrative for generative AI is strong, but the...

Vladimir Dimitrov, CFA

Chinese Sellers Recent Discussions About Amazon's Latest Changes, a Summary

Recently, many Chinese sellers on Amazon have reported a decline in their store's performance. The adjustment of advertising rules, the use of AI,...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

The S&P 500 Report: Performance, Profitability, Valuation & Key Metrics - Ed #2

The laggard are the following top 7 stocks: their weight is small in the index, but note the individual returns which are materially negative in 2023

Maverick Equity Research

Weekly Stock Bullfinder - Week of 6/26

This past week, the S&P 500 snapped a five-week winning streak and Nasdaq snapped an eight-week winning streak. Last week also saw the Nasdaq post...

Weekly Stock Bull Finder

Alibaba’s Cloud Intelligence Group Spin-Off: The First Look

The aim to bring in external strategic investors before the spin-off will provide a valuation benchmark. Our analysis points to a Cloud business...

Arun George

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