IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Event-Driven

China Traditional Chinese Medicine / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-traditional-chinese-medicine" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:351:1" rel="noopener">China Traditional Chinese Medicine (570 HK)</a>’s monthly update provides ammunition to both the bulls and bears. Since falling on no news on 26 June, the spread has widened to 31.8%. </li>
<li>The bull view is that while the timelines are delayed, the privatisation remains on track as the update shows ongoing progress in satisfying the pre-condition. </li>
<li>The bear view is that progress remains glacial, as the consortium wants to withdraw from a binding offer by failing to satisfy the pre-condition before the long stop date.</li>
</ul>



China Traditional Chinese Medicine (570 HK)’s monthly update provides ammunition to both the bulls and bears. Since falling on no news on 26 June, the spread has widened to 31.8%. 
The bull view is that while the timelines are delayed, the privatisation remains on track as the update shows ongoing progress in satisfying the pre-condition. 
The bear view is that progress remains glacial, as the consortium wants to withdraw from a binding offer by failing to satisfy the pre-condition before the long stop date.


China Traditional Chinese Medicine (570 HK): Update Provides Fodder for Bulls and Bears

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sciclone-pharmaceuticals-holdings-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:17351:1" rel="noopener">Sciclone Pharmaceuticals (6600 HK)</a>'s scheme document is out, and the court meeting is scheduled for 19 June. The IFA considers the HK$18.80 per share offer fair and reasonable. </li>
<li>The key condition is approval by at least 75% of disinterested shareholders (&lt;10% of all disinterested shareholders rejection). No independent shareholder holds a blocking stake.</li>
<li>This is a done deal. At the last close and for the 12 July payment, the gross and annualised spread is 2.2% and 17.3%, respectively.</li>
</ul>



Sciclone Pharmaceuticals (6600 HK)'s scheme document is out, and the court meeting is scheduled for 19 June. The IFA considers the HK$18.80 per share offer fair and reasonable. 
The key condition is approval by at least 75% of disinterested shareholders (&lt;10% of all disinterested shareholders rejection). No independent shareholder holds a blocking stake.
This is a done deal. At the last close and for the 12 July payment, the gross and annualised spread is 2.2% and 17.3%, respectively.


SciClone Pharma (6600 HK): Scheme Vote on 19 June

HK/China Healthcare Analyst (ex-Fosun Pharma)

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Yichang HEC Changjiang Pharma / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Sunshine Lake Pharma plans to privatize HEC CJ Pharma in the form of merger by absorption with conditions. After privatization, CJ Pharma will be delisted from the Stock Exchange.</li>
<li>Sunshine Lake Pharma's pipeline has been “disconnected” from the level of domestic biotech in recent years, and is completely lagging behind the average speed of innovative drug development in China.</li>
<li>Due to “outdated” pipeline and lack of prospects, even if CJ Pharma is merged into Sunshine Lake Pharma, valuation performance of the new entity would be disappointing in the future.</li>
</ul>


Sunshine Lake Pharma plans to privatize HEC CJ Pharma in the form of merger by absorption with conditions. After privatization, CJ Pharma will be delisted from the Stock Exchange.
Sunshine Lake Pharma's pipeline has been “disconnected” from the level of domestic biotech in recent years, and is completely lagging behind the average speed of innovative drug development in China.
Due to “outdated” pipeline and lack of prospects, even if CJ Pharma is merged into Sunshine Lake Pharma, valuation performance of the new entity would be disappointing in the future.


HEC CJ Pharma (1558.HK)'s Merger Deal with Sunshine Lake Pharma - Almost No Investment Value

<ul>
<li>On 21 February, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-traditional-chinese-medicine" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:351:1" rel="noopener">China Traditional Chinese Medicine (570 HK)</a> announced a privatisation offer from the Sinopharm-led consortium at HK$4.60 per share, a 47.4% premium to the undisturbed price.</li>
<li>The wide gross spread (7.0%) reflects risks around the re-rating of peers, the slow pace of satisfying the pre-condition, the completion timetable and Ping An’s blocking stake. </li>
<li>The key risk is the deal close timing due to the slow pace of regulatory approvals, which increases the chance that the vote will held after the August interim.   </li>
</ul>


On 21 February, China Traditional Chinese Medicine (570 HK) announced a privatisation offer from the Sinopharm-led consortium at HK$4.60 per share, a 47.4% premium to the undisturbed price.
The wide gross spread (7.0%) reflects risks around the re-rating of peers, the slow pace of satisfying the pre-condition, the completion timetable and Ping An’s blocking stake. 
The key risk is the deal close timing due to the slow pace of regulatory approvals, which increases the chance that the vote will held after the August interim.   


China Traditional Chinese Medicine (570 HK): Evaluating Deal-Break Risks

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech, Aequitas Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>We analyze the weekly Hong Kong Connect flows with our data engine for holding position as of March 28th.</li>
<li>The top stocks by inflows and outflows were tabulated for all market, HSCEI, mid cap and s/mid cap groups.</li>
<li>We highlight flows for Tencent, Bank Of China, China Mobile, Xiaomi, CNOOC.</li>
</ul>


We analyze the weekly Hong Kong Connect flows with our data engine for holding position as of March 28th.
The top stocks by inflows and outflows were tabulated for all market, HSCEI, mid cap and s/mid cap groups.
We highlight flows for Tencent, Bank Of China, China Mobile, Xiaomi, CNOOC.


Hong Kong Connect Flows (Mar 28th): Tencent, Bank Of China, China Mobile, Xiaomi, CNOOC

China

3SBio, Inc. is a biotechnology company located in China. The Company focuses on mammalian cell-based biopharmaceuticals in the biotechnology industry. 3SBio also develops, manufactures and markets biopharmaceutical products globally.

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3SBio Inc (1530 HK)

China Traditional Chinese Medicine (570 HK): Update Provides Fodder for Bulls and Bears

It is rare for the market to misprice an HKEx merger arb to this extent, suggesting something is amiss. Nevertheless, the risk (10.6% downside) vs...

Arun George

SciClone Pharma (6600 HK): Scheme Vote on 19 June

SciClone has received a letter of support from Pentwater Capital Management to vote YES. Pentwater represents 4.64% of out. shares and 8.51% of...

Arun George

HEC CJ Pharma (1558.HK)'s Merger Deal with Sunshine Lake Pharma - Almost No Investment Value

Sunshine Lake Pharma plans to privatize and merge with CJ Pharma.However, with an outdated pipeline, the new entity's valuation performance will...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

China Traditional Chinese Medicine (570 HK): Evaluating Deal-Break Risks

The wide gross spread (7.0%) reflects risks around the re-rating of peers, the slow pace of satisfying the pre-condition, the completion timetable...

Arun George

Hong Kong Connect Flows (Mar 28th): Tencent, Bank Of China, China Mobile, Xiaomi, CNOOC

We analyzed southbound Hong Kong connect flows in the past week and highlight flows for Tencent, Bank Of China, China Mobile, Xiaomi, CNOOC.

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

China Traditional Chinese Medicine (570 HK): Update Provides Fodder for Bulls and Bears

It is rare for the market to misprice an HKEx merger arb to this extent, suggesting something is amiss. Nevertheless, the risk (10.6% downside) vs...

Arun George

SciClone Pharma (6600 HK): Scheme Vote on 19 June

SciClone has received a letter of support from Pentwater Capital Management to vote YES. Pentwater represents 4.64% of out. shares and 8.51% of...

Arun George

HEC CJ Pharma (1558.HK)'s Merger Deal with Sunshine Lake Pharma - Almost No Investment Value

​Sunshine Lake Pharma plans to privatize and merge with CJ Pharma.However, with an outdated pipeline, the new entity's valuation performance will...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

China Traditional Chinese Medicine (570 HK): Evaluating Deal-Break Risks

The wide gross spread (7.0%) reflects risks around the re-rating of peers, the slow pace of satisfying the pre-condition, the completion timetable...

Arun George

Hong Kong Connect Flows (Mar 28th): Tencent, Bank Of China, China Mobile, Xiaomi, CNOOC

We analyzed southbound Hong Kong connect flows in the past week and highlight flows for Tencent, Bank Of China, China Mobile, Xiaomi, CNOOC.

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Sunshine Lake Pharma plans to privatize and merge with CJ Pharma.However, with an outdated pipeline, the new entity's valuation performance will...