Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

Last Week in Event SPACE: Singapore Air, Evergrande/Hopson, HomeCo/Aventus, Irongate, Shinsei Bank

HK/China Equity Long-Short

Osbert Tang, CFA

Equity Bottom-Up

China Conch Venture Holdings / Equity Bottom-Up

<p>We think that after the spin-off of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-conch-environment-protection-holdings-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:34405:1" rel="noopener">China Conch Environment Protection Holdings (CEP HK)</a>, the businesses being left with <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-conch-venture-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:19943:1" rel="noopener">China Conch Venture Holdings (586 HK)</a> will be even smaller and render it more like a holding company. We think such development is not positive to Conch Venture, and also, based on our sum-of-the-parts valuation; it is trading on 4% premium, suggesting that there is minimal upside from here, in our view.</p><p>What's left with Conch Venture will mainly be the waste incineration solution business, or waste-to-energy, but its capacity is significantly behind that for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-everbright-environment-group-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15946:1" rel="noopener">China Everbright Environment (257 HK)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/canvest-environmental-protection-group-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:100:1" rel="noopener">Canvest Environmental Protection Group (1381 HK)</a>. Also, the remaining assets (excluding <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/anhui-conch-cement-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:159:1" rel="noopener">Anhui Conch Cement (914 HK)</a>) will see slower earnings growth than with CEP.  The 16% rally in share price since Sep should have reflected most of the news. We have also provided in this Insight a matrix table indicating the SOTP value for different levels of CEP's PER and A-share price of Conch Cement. </p>

We think that after the spin-off of China Conch Environment Protection Holdings (CEP HK), the businesses being left with China Conch Venture Holdings (586 HK) will be even smaller and render it more like a holding company. We think such development is not positive to Conch Venture, and also, based on our sum-of-the-parts valuation; it is trading on 4% premium, suggesting that there is minimal upside from here, in our view.What's left with Conch Venture will mainly be the waste incineration solution business, or waste-to-energy, but its capacity is significantly behind that for China Everbright Environment (257 HK) and Canvest Environmental Protection Group (1381 HK). Also, the remaining assets (excluding Anhui Conch Cement (914 HK)) will see slower earnings growth than with CEP.  The 16% rally in share price since Sep should have reflected most of the news. We have also provided in this Insight a matrix table indicating the SOTP value for different levels of CEP's PER and A-share price of Conch Cement. 

Equity Capital Markets

China Conch Environment Protection Holdings / Equity Capital Markets

China Conch Environment Protection Holdings

<p>We believe the spin-off by introduction of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-conch-environment-protection-holdings-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:34405:1" rel="noopener">China Conch Environment Protection Holdings (CEP HK)</a> by <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-conch-venture-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:19943:1" rel="noopener">China Conch Venture Holdings (586 HK)</a> will leave more clarity to the business of both companies. Fundamentally speaking, we think CEP is a solid company with a focus on cement kiln waste treatment services for solid and hazardous waste in China.</p><p>The key positives for CEP are a leadership position in the industry, excellent new project pipeline momentum and strong relationship with its partners, in our view. However, the key negatives are declining margins, concentrated business lines and small market capitalisation. We estimate that CEP's market cap will be just HK$4.98bn and HK$6.38bn, based on the average PER of the peers (5.9x) and high-end of peers (7.6x). </p>

We believe the spin-off by introduction of China Conch Environment Protection Holdings (CEP HK) by China Conch Venture Holdings (586 HK) will leave more clarity to the business of both companies. Fundamentally speaking, we think CEP is a solid company with a focus on cement kiln waste treatment services for solid and hazardous waste in China.The key positives for CEP are a leadership position in the industry, excellent new project pipeline momentum and strong relationship with its partners, in our view. However, the key negatives are declining margins, concentrated business lines and small market capitalisation. We estimate that CEP's market cap will be just HK$4.98bn and HK$6.38bn, based on the average PER of the peers (5.9x) and high-end of peers (7.6x). 

Conch Environment: Initial Thoughts on the Listing by Way of Introduction

Last Week in Event SPACE: Matheson, Naspers/Prosus, China Conch, Vedanta, Aussie Pharma, Toshiba

ASEAN Insight Provider, CrossASEAN Research

Angus Mackintosh

ASEAN Insight Provider

CrossASEAN Research

At CrossASEAN Research we strive to produce unbiased and differentiated on the ground insights on companies across South East Asia. Our Research is produced for the most part after face to face meetings and conversations with company management to dig deep into the long term vision and strategy of the companies we cover. We seek to deliver investable and actionable themes on sectors and markets across SE Asia, often in collaboration with other Insight Providers across the region, pooling the vast experience of the analysts within the Smartkarma Ecosystem. We also offer bespoke work and tailor made trips for our clients. 

Insights across South East Asia

Indocement Tunggal Prakarsa / Equity Bottom-Up

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<p><span data-preserver-spaces="true">Given we are now coming out of Indonesia's latest wave of COVID-19 and mobility and economic activity is resuming , we see <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/indocement-tunggal-prakarsa" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:4040:1" rel="noopener">Indocement Tunggal Prakarsa (INTP IJ)</a> as an interesting proxy for the recovery, given its exposure to West Java, infrastructure spending, and the recovering residential property market </span></p>
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<p><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/indocement-tunggal-prakarsa" target="_blank" rel="noopener"><span data-preserver-spaces="true">Indocement Tunggal Prakarsa (INTP IJ)</span></a><span data-preserver-spaces="true"> released a solid set of 1H2021 results, with an increase in revenue of +8.0% YoY on the back of an increase in cement volume.  </span><span data-preserver-spaces="true">EBITDA margins improved from 15.5% to 19.2% due to savings in operating expenses and gains in other operating income, leading to an EBITDA increase of +33.6% YoY to IDR1,280.6bn. <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/indocement-tunggal-prakarsa" target="_blank" rel="noopener"></a></span><span data-preserver-spaces="true"> </span></p>
<section class="figure">One major cost pressure comes from rising coal prices, which have increased significantly over the past year and the company has been continually both increasing its usage of low calorific coal and alternative fuels over the past 5-years to offset this.</section>
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<p><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/indocement-tunggal-prakarsa" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:4040:1" rel="noopener">Indocement Tunggal Prakarsa (INTP IJ)</a> has a strong focus on improving its emissions, with assistance from the Heidelberg Cement Technology Centre, with a road map in place for energy efficiency and CO2 reductions.</p>
<p>The fact that around 78% of cement sales at <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/indocement-tunggal-prakarsa" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:4040:1" rel="noopener">Indocement Tunggal Prakarsa (INTP IJ)</a> is in bags makes branding all the more important and as a result the company is quite focused on promoting the brand through TV and social media channels.</p>
<section class="figure">The company continues with its digitalisation and has developed a fully digitalised ordering system with real time data which helps the company's sales to achieve better results both on ordering as well as on pricing.</section>
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<p><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/indocement-tunggal-prakarsa" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:4040:1" rel="noopener">Indocement Tunggal Prakarsa (INTP IJ)</a> estimates that national cement domestic growth will increase by +5% for FY2021 with the resumption of more infrastructure projects and private projects in 2H2021 plus more activity in residential property.</p>
<p>The company's expansion will be focused on expanding its distribution channels through possible new terminals and barge or vessel ownership, as well as potentially exploring M&amp;A opportunities. </p>
<p><span data-preserver-spaces="true"><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/indocement-tunggal-prakarsa" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:4040:1" rel="noopener">Indocement Tunggal Prakarsa (INTP IJ)</a> trades on 11.1x FY21E EV/EBITDA and 9.9x FY22E EV/EBITDA versus its 5-year average forward EV/EBITDA of 15x, making the company look attractive from a valuation perspective. </span></p>


Given we are now coming out of Indonesia's latest wave of COVID-19 and mobility and economic activity is resuming , we see Indocement Tunggal Prakarsa (INTP IJ) as an interesting proxy for the recovery, given its exposure to West Java, infrastructure spending, and the recovering residential property market 

Indocement Tunggal Prakarsa (INTP IJ) released a solid set of 1H2021 results, with an increase in revenue of +8.0% YoY on the back of an increase in cement volume.  EBITDA margins improved from 15.5% to 19.2% due to savings in operating expenses and gains in other operating income, leading to an EBITDA increase of +33.6% YoY to IDR1,280.6bn.  
One major cost pressure comes from rising coal prices, which have increased significantly over the past year and the company has been continually both increasing its usage of low calorific coal and alternative fuels over the past 5-years to offset this.



Indocement Tunggal Prakarsa (INTP IJ) has a strong focus on improving its emissions, with assistance from the Heidelberg Cement Technology Centre, with a road map in place for energy efficiency and CO2 reductions.
The fact that around 78% of cement sales at Indocement Tunggal Prakarsa (INTP IJ) is in bags makes branding all the more important and as a result the company is quite focused on promoting the brand through TV and social media channels.
The company continues with its digitalisation and has developed a fully digitalised ordering system with real time data which helps the company's sales to achieve better results both on ordering as well as on pricing.





Indocement Tunggal Prakarsa (INTP IJ) estimates that national cement domestic growth will increase by +5% for FY2021 with the resumption of more infrastructure projects and private projects in 2H2021 plus more activity in residential property.
The company's expansion will be focused on expanding its distribution channels through possible new terminals and barge or vessel ownership, as well as potentially exploring M&amp;A opportunities. 
Indocement Tunggal Prakarsa (INTP IJ) trades on 11.1x FY21E EV/EBITDA and 9.9x FY22E EV/EBITDA versus its 5-year average forward EV/EBITDA of 15x, making the company look attractive from a valuation perspective. 

Indocement Tunggal Prakasa (INTP IJ) - Bulky Recovery in Place

China

Anhui Conch Cement Company Limited manufactures cement products. The Company produces silicate cements, slag silicate cements, composite silicate cements, cement clinkers, and other products. Anhui Conch Cement Cement markets its products throughout China and worldwide.

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Anhui Conch Cement (600585 CH)

Last Week in Event SPACE: Singapore Air, Evergrande/Hopson, HomeCo/Aventus, Irongate, Shinsei Bank

The weekend is here! Pour yourself a coffee, grab a comfortable seat, and sift through a brief summary of insights on various events discussed...

David Blennerhassett

Conch Venture (586 HK): Not Much Left

We see Conch Venture not cheap at the current level, and the spin-off of Conch Environment will make it even more like a holding company. The...

Osbert Tang, CFA

Conch Environment: Initial Thoughts on the Listing by Way of Introduction

Conch Environment's key postives are leadership position, good pipeline and strong partner relations. The key negatives are declining margins,...

Osbert Tang, CFA

Last Week in Event SPACE: Matheson, Naspers/Prosus, China Conch, Vedanta, Aussie Pharma, Toshiba

The weekend is here! Pour yourself a coffee, grab a comfortable seat, and sift through a brief summary of insights on various events discussed...

David Blennerhassett

Indocement Tunggal Prakasa (INTP IJ) - Bulky Recovery in Place

We see Indocement as an interesting and high-quality proxy to the recovery in the Indonesian economy, given its exposure to infrastructure through...

Angus Mackintosh

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