China/Asia TMT

Shawn Yang

China growth and global non-US Internet equities

Blue Lotus Research Institute

Blue Lotus Research is a Hong Kong Type 4 Licensed investment advisory firm focusing on Chinese growth equities and global non-US Internet equities

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>We expect online gaming has a better performance: 1) improved content supply and 2) strong user demand for social interactions in top games like Tencent’s HOK and NetEase’s Egg Party.</li>
<li>We suggest that eCommerce and advertising have relatively weak performances in January because offline consumption enjoyed faster rebound and attracted users away from online platforms.</li>
<li>We are more positive about Tencent in C1Q23, and we expect that major ads platforms like Kuaishou, Baidu, Bili, iQIYI, and Weibo will have the fastest YoY growth in C2Q23.</li>
</ul>


We expect online gaming has a better performance: 1) improved content supply and 2) strong user demand for social interactions in top games like Tencent’s HOK and NetEase’s Egg Party.
We suggest that eCommerce and advertising have relatively weak performances in January because offline consumption enjoyed faster rebound and attracted users away from online platforms.
We are more positive about Tencent in C1Q23, and we expect that major ads platforms like Kuaishou, Baidu, Bili, iQIYI, and Weibo will have the fastest YoY growth in C2Q23.


China Internet CNY Holiday Update: Gaming Performed Better than Ads and ECom

<ul>
<li>We update our China online advertising model and forecast that the industry will reach RMB 1,167 bn with 9.3% YoY in 2023, rebounding from 2.7% YoY in 2022.</li>
<li>Bytedance's slowdown, Tencent's Video Account, and some sectors' uneven faster-than-expected recoveries will be three key themes that could generate investment opportunities in 2023.</li>
<li>We recommend BUY Tencent, BABA, PDD, and Meituan within the sector.</li>
</ul>


We update our China online advertising model and forecast that the industry will reach RMB 1,167 bn with 9.3% YoY in 2023, rebounding from 2.7% YoY in 2022.
Bytedance's slowdown, Tencent's Video Account, and some sectors' uneven faster-than-expected recoveries will be three key themes that could generate investment opportunities in 2023.
We recommend BUY Tencent, BABA, PDD, and Meituan within the sector.


China Online Ads Outlook: A Year of Uneven Recovery

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), CMB International

CMB International

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

Incorporated in Hong Kong, supported by the mainland and targeting in global market, CMB International Capital Corporation Limited (“CMBI”) is an integrated financial institution providing comprehensive and professional services. As a wholly-owned subsidiary of China Merchants Bank ("CMB"), by leveraging on the Group’s synergy and coordination in domestic and overseas markets, as well as CMB’s strong resources and outstanding social reputation, CMBI and its subsidiaries have been actively implementing diversified business strategies and set up an overall layout of main business segments including Corporate Finance, Asset Management, Wealth Management, Global Markets and Structured Finance, etc. Adhering to the philosophy of “being clients oriented and increasing our own values by the way of creating value for clients”, CMBI endeavors to provide quality and integrated financial services to institutional, corporate and individual customers both domestic and overseas including Hong Kong IPO sponsorship and underwriting, share placement and rights issue for listed companies, financial advisors, bonds issuance services, asset management, direct investment, wealth management, equity sales and trading, etc.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>Weibo reported its 3Q22 results on 17 Nov. 3Q22 revenue was down by 25% YoY (or -20% YoY on a constant currency basis) to US$454mn, largely in line with our/consensus estimate of US$469/460mn.</li><li>9M22 revenue declined by 15% YoY, as the macro headwind and resurgence of COVID-19 weigh on ad demand.</li><li>Non-GAAP net income dropped by 43% YoY to US$119mn, in line with consensus estimate of US$120mn.</li></ul><p><em>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.</em></p>

Weibo reported its 3Q22 results on 17 Nov. 3Q22 revenue was down by 25% YoY (or -20% YoY on a constant currency basis) to US$454mn, largely in line with our/consensus estimate of US$469/460mn.9M22 revenue declined by 15% YoY, as the macro headwind and resurgence of COVID-19 weigh on ad demand.Non-GAAP net income dropped by 43% YoY to US$119mn, in line with consensus estimate of US$120mn.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Weibo (WB US) – Ongoing moderate recovery

<ul><li>For 3Q22E, social entertainment platforms still face intensifying competition and macro challenges that can weigh on their revenue growth and margin expansion.</li><li>Social entertainment platforms need to innovate their monetization methods and enhance operating efficiency in order to fend off competition and macro headwind, in our view.</li><li>Platforms with concentrated revenue exposure to ad business like Weibo and loss-making platforms like BiliBili (Bili) might be more sensitive to the competition and macro environment.</li></ul><p><em>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.</em></p>

For 3Q22E, social entertainment platforms still face intensifying competition and macro challenges that can weigh on their revenue growth and margin expansion.Social entertainment platforms need to innovate their monetization methods and enhance operating efficiency in order to fend off competition and macro headwind, in our view.Platforms with concentrated revenue exposure to ad business like Weibo and loss-making platforms like BiliBili (Bili) might be more sensitive to the competition and macro environment.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

China Internet– Social Entertainment 3Q22 Preview: Remains Under Pressure

<div><div><div><div><ul><li>Consumption sentiment and offline activities’ recovery pace continued to weigh on internet sector’s 3Q financials performance.</li><li>Looking into 4Q and 2023, business model robustness, operating leverage improvement, and ability to expand into new revenue streams will be the key stock alpha drivers, while the heavily under-owned China Internet sector will remain sensitive to policies and other sentiment related beta drivers.</li><li>We expect leading technology companies will play vital role in building digital infrastructure and empowering enterprise digital transformation. </li></ul></div></div></div></div><p><em>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.</em></p>

Consumption sentiment and offline activities’ recovery pace continued to weigh on internet sector’s 3Q financials performance.Looking into 4Q and 2023, business model robustness, operating leverage improvement, and ability to expand into new revenue streams will be the key stock alpha drivers, while the heavily under-owned China Internet sector will remain sensitive to policies and other sentiment related beta drivers.We expect leading technology companies will play vital role in building digital infrastructure and empowering enterprise digital transformation. Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

China Internet Sector – 3Q22 preview: near term bumpy recovery

China

JOYY Inc. operates a global social media platform. The Company offers platform which enables users to interact with each other in real time through online live media by creating, sharing, and enjoying a vast range of entertainment content and activities. JOYY serves customers in China.

Beijing TRS Information Technology Company Limited develops and markets software and technology services for unstructured data management. The Company provides software products that are enterprise search, content management and text mining.

Focus Technology Co Ltd. provides business-to-business (B2B) e-commerce solutions. The Company provides the supply and the demand sides for the release, search and management services of the transaction information.

Hangzhou Shunwang Technology Co., Ltd. develops and sells Internet entertainment networking platforms.  The Company's products provide safety management, system maintenance service, and entertainment content update service.

Hangzhou Shunwang Technology A (300113 CH)

Shanghai Ganglian E-Commerce Holdings Company Limited provides market information and B2B e-commerce services for steel and steel-related industries. The Company provides market information, research services and also offers business promotion to customers.

Hubei Century Network Technology Co. Ltd. provides internet content and service aggregation platforms. The Company delivers music, games, and other related products.

INESA Intelligent Tech Inc. operates in the IT industry. The Company designs and manages cloud servers and big data applications for businesses. INESA Intelligent also manufactures electronic components.

Longmaster Information & Technology Company Limited provides community-based phonic value-added services. The Company's main product is a large-scale telephone phonic social and entertainment platform.

Longmaster Information&Technology (300288 CH)

21Vianet Group, Inc. provides carrier-neutral Internet data center services. The Company hosts its customers' servers and networking equipment, as well as provides interconnectivity and managed network services to enable customers to deliver data across the Internet. 21Vianet conducts business in Beijing, China.

Beijing Sinnet Technology Company Limited provides customers with broadband access services, IDC and its value-added services, and other internet integrated services. The Company's core business are broadband access services, IDC and its value-added services.

mixi, Inc. operates community style website, mixi.  The Company sells advertising spaces on its website.  mixi also runs online recruiting services for IT related positions.

DeNA Co., Ltd. operates social media site, auction and shopping web site such as Mobage-town and Bidders.  DeNA also provides mobile-related services such as mobile game and community site.

Gogo Inc. provides in-flight connectivity systems and services. The Company offers online aircraft systems, wireless digital entertainment and other services in the commercial and business aviation markets.

Shutterstock Inc. operates a global marketplace for commercial digital imagery. The Company's online marketplace provides a freely searchable library of commercial digital images that our users can pay to license, download and incorporate into their work.

SMS CO.,LTD. is a website operator regarding elderly care.  On its websites, the company provides a variety of information contents related to employment placements for senior care assistants and doctors, as well as medical and nursing qualifications.

Megaport Limited operates as a software-based elastic connectivity provider. The Company develops an elastic connectivity platform that provides customers interconnectivity and flexibility between other networks and cloud providers connected to the platform. Megaport serves customers worldwide.

Cars.com Inc. operates an online automotive platform. The Company offers new and used vehicle listings, expert and consumer reviews, research tools, and other information which helps shoppers to buy, sell, and service their vehicles. Cars.com serves customers in the United States.

SUNeVision Holdings Limited, through its subsidiaries, operates Internet services centers and Information Technology (IT) facilities.  The Company also designs and installs SMATV, structural cabling and security systems as well as provides system development, solutions, and management services.  In addition, Sunevision invests in properties.

QuinStreet Inc. specializes in vertical marketing and media on the Internet. The Company focuses on clients in the education and financial services industries, as well as has a presence in the home services, business-to-business, or B2B, and healthcare industries.

Just Dial Ltd. operates a local search engine that provides comprehensive updated information. The Company offers a search engine that includes a variety of categories such as movies, hotels and resorts, taxis and car rentals, insurance, bars, and nightclubs. Just Dial markets its search engine to users throughout India.

Weibo Corp is a social media platform for people to create, distribute and discover Chinese-language content.  The Company offers users public self-expression in real time with a powerful platform for social interaction, as well as content aggregation and distribution.

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Weibo Corp (WB US)

China Internet CNY Holiday Update: Gaming Performed Better than Ads and ECom

Our recent channel check indicates that online gaming has a better performance than online ads and eCommerce during the Chinese New Year holiday....

Blue Lotus Research Institute

China Online Ads Outlook: A Year of Uneven Recovery

We update our China online advertising model and conclude that Bytedance's slowdown, Tencent's Video Account, and some sectors' uneven recoveries...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

Weibo (WB US) – Ongoing moderate recovery

3Q22 revenue was down by 25% YoY (or -20% YoY on a constant currency basis) to US$454mn, largely in line with our/consensus estimate of US$469/460mn.

CMB International

China Internet Sector – 3Q22 preview: near term bumpy recovery

We expect leading technology companies will play vital role in building digital infrastructure and empowering enterprise digital transformation.

CMB International

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

China Internet CNY Holiday Update: Gaming Performed Better than Ads and ECom

Our recent channel check indicates that online gaming has a better performance than online ads and eCommerce during the Chinese New Year holiday....

Blue Lotus Research Institute

China Online Ads Outlook: A Year of Uneven Recovery

We update our China online advertising model and conclude that Bytedance's slowdown, Tencent's Video Account, and some sectors' uneven recoveries...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

Weibo (WB US) – Ongoing moderate recovery

3Q22 revenue was down by 25% YoY (or -20% YoY on a constant currency basis) to US$454mn, largely in line with our/consensus estimate of US$469/460mn.

CMB International

China Internet– Social Entertainment 3Q22 Preview: Remains Under Pressure

For 3Q22E, social entertainment platforms still face intensifying competition and macro challenges that can weigh on their revenue growth and...

CMB International

China Internet Sector – 3Q22 preview: near term bumpy recovery

We expect leading technology companies will play vital role in building digital infrastructure and empowering enterprise digital transformation.

CMB International