Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>As expected, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/japan-post-bank-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:838:1" rel="noopener">Japan Post Bank (7182 JP)</a> has announced their ToSTNeT-3 buyback of ¥70 billion on Day 1 of the potential TN-3 Buyback period.</li>
<li>Also as somewhat expected, investors and traders pushed up the stock price today after the news there would be a buyback, hoping to buy then sell, or short today's close.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/japan-post-holdings-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:359:1" rel="noopener">Japan Post Holdings (6178 JP)</a> will offer shares. Others obviously will too. How this works and what you have to watch out for discussed below.</li>
</ul>


As expected, Japan Post Bank (7182 JP) has announced their ToSTNeT-3 buyback of ¥70 billion on Day 1 of the potential TN-3 Buyback period.
Also as somewhat expected, investors and traders pushed up the stock price today after the news there would be a buyback, hoping to buy then sell, or short today's close.

Japan Post Holdings (6178 JP) will offer shares. Others obviously will too. How this works and what you have to watch out for discussed below.


Japan Post Bank (7182 JP) ¥70bn ToSTNeT-3 Buyback

Japan Specialist

Mark Chadwick

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>OVERSEAS.  SPX Gains (barely) after a brutal week; Durable Goods Ex-Transport point to economic resilience;  Beta/Growth&gt; Value as Cyclicals rebound; JPM Quant Sees $50bn Selling if SPX breeches 3940</li>
<li>JAPAN. NKY Futs +0.4% vs Cash; USDJPY 136.2; BOJ Gov Designate Ueda says no change to Easing for now; Japan Post Massive X-Share $9bn sale of Sub shares; Auto Upgrades</li>
<li>NUGGETS NUGGET. Nidec's E-Axle Future may rest with the Europeans, not the Chinese !</li>
</ul>


OVERSEAS.  SPX Gains (barely) after a brutal week; Durable Goods Ex-Transport point to economic resilience;  Beta/Growth&gt; Value as Cyclicals rebound; JPM Quant Sees $50bn Selling if SPX breeches 3940
JAPAN. NKY Futs +0.4% vs Cash; USDJPY 136.2; BOJ Gov Designate Ueda says no change to Easing for now; Japan Post Massive X-Share $9bn sale of Sub shares; Auto Upgrades
NUGGETS NUGGET. Nidec's E-Axle Future may rest with the Europeans, not the Chinese !


Good Morning Japan |SPX Holds After Brutal Week; Solid Durable Goods; Japan Post $9bn X-Share Unwind

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/japan-post-holdings-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:359:1" rel="noopener">Japan Post Holdings (6178 JP)</a> is looking to reduce its stake in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/japan-post-bank-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:838:1" rel="noopener">Japan Post Bank (7182 JP)</a> from 89% to 60%. That is over US$9bn at the last close.</li>
<li>The placement is supported by buybacks (ToSTNeT-3 and on-market) that will absorb some of the offering. Then there is the passive buying that will absorb a third of the offering. </li>
<li>One of the key short-term supports will be the exercise of the over-allotment of the Japan offering. But that will require persuading retail investors to buy into the offering.</li>
</ul>



Japan Post Holdings (6178 JP) is looking to reduce its stake in Japan Post Bank (7182 JP) from 89% to 60%. That is over US$9bn at the last close.
The placement is supported by buybacks (ToSTNeT-3 and on-market) that will absorb some of the offering. Then there is the passive buying that will absorb a third of the offering. 
One of the key short-term supports will be the exercise of the over-allotment of the Japan offering. But that will require persuading retail investors to buy into the offering.


Japan Post Bank (7182 JP): BIG Offering Supported by Buybacks & Passive Flow

IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/japan-post-holdings-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:359:1" rel="noopener">Japan Post Holdings (6178 JP)</a>/JPH has announced the offering of up to 1.1 billion shares in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/japan-post-bank-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:838:1" rel="noopener">Japan Post Bank (7182 JP)</a>/JPB to reduce its stake from 89.00% to 59.95%.</li>
<li>JPB will carry out a ToSTNeT-3 buyback (maximum of JPY70 billion) and an on-market buyback (maximum of JPY80 billion). JPH can sell additional shares into the ToSTNeT-3 buyback.</li>
<li>For long-term investors, JPB’s forward P/B of 0.47x and yield of 4.41% are attractive to peers. JPB’s current price ratio is undemanding vs TOPIX Banks ETF and JPH.</li>
</ul>



Japan Post Holdings (6178 JP)/JPH has announced the offering of up to 1.1 billion shares in Japan Post Bank (7182 JP)/JPB to reduce its stake from 89.00% to 59.95%.
JPB will carry out a ToSTNeT-3 buyback (maximum of JPY70 billion) and an on-market buyback (maximum of JPY80 billion). JPH can sell additional shares into the ToSTNeT-3 buyback.
For long-term investors, JPB’s forward P/B of 0.47x and yield of 4.41% are attractive to peers. JPB’s current price ratio is undemanding vs TOPIX Banks ETF and JPH.


Japan Post Bank (7182 JP): Japan Post Holdings to Sell Down a Third of Its Stake

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/japan-post-bank-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:838:1" rel="noopener">Japan Post Bank (7182 JP)</a> has announced the mooted offering by <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/japan-post-holdings-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:359:1" rel="noopener">Japan Post Holdings (6178 JP)</a> whereby they will sell 29% of the bank to go from 89% to 60%.</li>
<li>There are two buybacks - one pre offering and one after - which is an attempt to mitigate impact. This creates interesting but complicated strategy possibilities. Lots of details here.</li>
<li>Big picture, this is a Very Big Offering at ¥1.236trln at today's close including greenshoe. 80/20 dom/international. A TOUGH sell. 1.089bn shares is 4x current float. </li>
</ul>



Japan Post Bank (7182 JP) has announced the mooted offering by Japan Post Holdings (6178 JP) whereby they will sell 29% of the bank to go from 89% to 60%.
There are two buybacks - one pre offering and one after - which is an attempt to mitigate impact. This creates interesting but complicated strategy possibilities. Lots of details here.
Big picture, this is a Very Big Offering at ¥1.236trln at today's close including greenshoe. 80/20 dom/international. A TOUGH sell. 1.089bn shares is 4x current float. 


Japan Post Bank (7182 JP) Announces Its Re-IPO - Big Offering, Complicated but Big Index Flows

Japan

Japan Post Holdings Co. Ltd. operates post stations, banks, and insurance business. The Company offers letters and goods transportation services, stamp sales, deposits, loans, and insurance products.

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Japan Post Holdings (6178 JP)

Japan Post Bank (7182 JP) ¥70bn ToSTNeT-3 Buyback

JPB will do a ToSTNeT-3 buyback for ¥70bn tomorrow morning. That is good for 59.5mm shares. JPH will offer but results will be pro-rata and anyone...

Travis Lundy

Japan Post Bank (7182 JP): BIG Offering Supported by Buybacks & Passive Flow

JPH's offering of US$9bn will put pressure on JPB. Passive buying will absorb around a third of the offering. The buybacks will absorb some more....

Brian Freitas

Japan Post Bank (7182 JP): Japan Post Holdings to Sell Down a Third of Its Stake

JPH aims to lower its stake by up to 59.95% of outstanding shares. JPH will buy back shares to provide partial relief from the selling pressure....

Arun George

Japan Post Bank (7182 JP) Announces Its Re-IPO - Big Offering, Complicated but Big Index Flows

JPB has announced the JPH offering. JPY 1.2trln to get to 60%. There is a TN3 buyback, which could shrink the offer, and syndicate stabilisation...

Travis Lundy

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Japan Post Bank (7182 JP) ¥70bn ToSTNeT-3 Buyback

JPB will do a ToSTNeT-3 buyback for ¥70bn tomorrow morning. That is good for 59.5mm shares. JPH will offer but results will be pro-rata and anyone...

Travis Lundy

Good Morning Japan |SPX Holds After Brutal Week; Solid Durable Goods; Japan Post $9bn X-Share Unwind

US stocks hold on to gains after last week's sell off; In Japan, BOJ Gov Designate Ueda says no change to Easing for now; Japan Post Massive X...

Mark Chadwick

Japan Post Bank (7182 JP): BIG Offering Supported by Buybacks & Passive Flow

JPH's offering of US$9bn will put pressure on JPB. Passive buying will absorb around a third of the offering. The buybacks will absorb some more....

Brian Freitas

Japan Post Bank (7182 JP): Japan Post Holdings to Sell Down a Third of Its Stake

JPH aims to lower its stake by up to 59.95% of outstanding shares. JPH will buy back shares to provide partial relief from the selling pressure....

Arun George

Japan Post Bank (7182 JP) Announces Its Re-IPO - Big Offering, Complicated but Big Index Flows

JPB has announced the JPH offering. JPY 1.2trln to get to 60%. There is a TN3 buyback, which could shrink the offer, and syndicate stabilisation...

Travis Lundy